Sunday Spreads SEASON FINALE: Da Big Game
We're finally here, ladies and gentlemen; the Big Game, the World Championship, the Super Bowl. It's been a long road to this point, and I hope you've been able to bet wisely. Here's my final Sunday Spreads of the Football season, featuring my pick Against the Spread, the Total Score, and eight of my favorite props. Plus, I've included a PDF of a pick 'em game that you can play with the folks you're watching the game with.
The House Enterprise Prop Pick Challenge
If you're not a fan of making bets, not a fan of the teams playing, or not a fan of football at all and were just dragged to a watch party, here's a special game I devised for all of you to play at home. Download the file below, print it out, make your picks, and flex your Super Bowl expertise! If you manage to record a good score, feel free to let us know on Twitter @the_bbb_podcast, or Tweet at me directly @samjuan2878!
Now for the real bets. I'll start off with my picks ATS and the Over/Under. Like many Super Bowls before it, we've seen plenty of motion on this year's spread. While it hasn't grown as tight as last year's half-point handicap, a shift from 3.5 to 3 does indicate that we'll be in for a tight one. Of course, the biggest reason for this tight one is that we're once again looking at a Super Bowl matchup between both the present and future GOAT gunslingers in the league.
In terms of the spread, I hate to be boring in my last pick of the year, but I gotta go with the Chiefs. While Mahomes hasn't been 100% during these playoffs, missing as much as a quarter in some games due to a concussion, I think he'll be back up to speed come game time. When looking at both offenses, Mahomes beats Brady in terms of quality and quantity of weapons. Two of the best wide receivers in the league in Watkins and Hill, and the current best tight end in Travis Kelce. While Gronkowski might win the all-time battle, there's no question that Kelce is better equipped to get big yard plays. The biggest thing working in favor of the Bucs at stopping Mahomes is their Todd-Bowles led blitz packages. We saw them put to work against the Packers and Saints so far this year to great effect, but neither of those teams had a quarterback as mobile as Patrick Mahomes. A spread of 3 flat is a bit risky as a field goal can result in a push, but I don't think that will be likely for the Chiefs offense.
My Pick: Chiefs -3 (-115)
For the Total Score, I think it's a safe bet to take the over. While 56.5 is pushing it, both teams have been regularly playing games that hit the mid-50s, with the only outlier being in the divisional round between Kansas City and Cleveland, in which Chad Henne finished out the game for an injured Mahomes. Barring another major injury, this game is bound to hit the over as long as at least one team gets past 30 points.
My Pick: OVER 56.5 (-110)
While Brady has shown that he can play way past the time expectations of others at his position, he's had a bit of a rough go in terms of turnovers this postseason, even leaving some to question whether or not he was much of an improvement from Jameis Winston for Tampa (he clearly is, but I just love that people even considered that). These props for Brady might be a little mean, but I think it's the best way to go for a quarterback whose Super Bowl appearances may over. Brady went the first two rounds of the playoffs pick-free, but managed to throw three in one half in the NFC Championship. Brady has thrown a total of 6 interceptions in his 9 Super Bowl appearances, including one against the Rams back in LIII two years ago. I think he'll make at least one unfortunate pass tonight, so a single unit play towards the over without a parlay won't be too much of a bad move.
My Pick: Tom Brady OVER 0.5 Int. thrown (-165)
Another single unit Brady bet that I think is worth looking at will be towards rushing yards, partly because the target number is hilariously low, and partly because it makes for a solid bet. We all know Brady is not a mobile quarterback, even when it comes to moving in order to make a pass behind the line of scrimmage. Rushing yards are also a tough pick for Brady due to how late-game knee-taking can bring that total below zero. However, like with many Super Bowl appearances we've seen him in, Brady could be in a position for a game-winning drive, ruling out the chance to take a knee, and even bringing in the possibility for a QB sneak. Throw a couple bucks towards the over in a play to make you look smart in front of your friends.
My Pick: Tom Brady OVER 0.5 Rushing yards (+145)
Mahomes is the better QB to bet on tonight if you're looking for some more traditional passing prop bets. He's a swiss army knife in terms of betting, being able to produce both decent passing and rushing yards, often going for longer QB sneaks than necessary. He's got better weapons and is way more mobile behind the line of scrimmage. In all honesty, because of this, taking the over on Mahomes' passing yards is probably the most boring prop bet you can make today, but if you're looking for profit over fun, then you're in luck. Kansas City's run game has been fine this season, but yardage through the air is this team's bread and butter. Even playing conservatively, like most teams do to start out every Super Bowl, Mahomes is going to be airing it out on more than one occasion. Same thing for touchdowns; Mahomes has way too many options on his offense for him not to hit the over. If you're going to parlay any picks, make sure these first two are together, while maybe adding the third to spice things up a little bit.
My Pick: Patrick Mahomes OVER 329.5 Passing yards (-120)
My Pick: Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135)
My Pick: Patrick Mahomes first rushing attempt OVER 4.5 yards (-145)
Other Game Bets
As mentioned before, Mahomes has become Kansas City's primary rushing yards producer for tonight due to both an injury plagued and underperforming Chiefs ground game. Even so, I can't see Mahomes rushing more than he needs to. However, this game will not be entirely devoid of ground yardage, as Leonard Fournette has proven himself as a solid asset in the Bucs backfield. Fournette's presence on the field makes Tampa much more of a run-focused team than Kansas City, so expect Fournette to be the game's leading rusher.
My Pick: Leonard Fournette most rushing yards (+180)
In terms of wide receiver picks, there aren't a ton of props that don't require several more parlays to be profitable or fun, so I'll give a risky one. As mentioned before, teams tend to play conservatively in the beginning stages of a Super Bowl. Passes tend to be short gains, favoring tight ends like Travis Kelce. While it may seem like a boring pick to take the favorite receiver first, the Chiefs are still a very varied offense, meaning that everyone here is an underdog. If you really want to push your luck, Tyreek Hill isn't a bad choice either at +275.
My Pick: Travis Kelce as first KC player to record reception (+200)
My Gatorade Pick
I just learned that this was a type of prop bet that people made, and I love it almost entirely because it encapsulates just how insane sports betting can be. I was trying to do some research into each team's preferred Gatorade flavors, but was disappointed to learn that the folks who prepare the Gatorade coolers intentionally randomize the flavors for the exact purpose of not providing any possible betting information. Because of this, let's play it a little risky, and go with my personal favorite flavor.
My Pick: Yellow/Green/Lime (+300)