Sunday Spreads Season 3, Volume 2: Big Divisional Clashes
Updated: Sep 19, 2022
Image: USA Today
Welcome back to Sunday Spreads! Despite a lukewarm start to the 2022 season, Tondo and I are here to bring you our best bets for every game this Sunday. With some major divisional games on the agenda today, let's see where we're laying down our money.
Basel's Week 1 ATS: 4-3
Tondo's Week 1 ATS: 4-3
Basel's Week 1 Picks
1 PM Games
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Even with Cleveland's current QB situation, starting off your season against two AFC North opponents is a tough break for the Jets, but then again, what isn't? After grabbing a stunning win in Week 1 against former QB Baker Mayfield, the Browns will once again try to use their top tier running game and receiving corps to squeak out a close one against the Jets. While I do think Jacoby Brissett is a solid QB, having targets like Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones really gave him a boost last week. On defense, Myles Garrett will have no problem getting through New York's swiss cheese o-line just like Baltimore last week, leaving Joe Flacco no room to get much going.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Welcome to New York, Brian Daboll! After taking down the Titans on a game-winning field goal in Week 1, the New York Giants and their new head coach are walking with some serious swagger. Saquon is back, Daniel Jones is...fine, and the defense did a solid job of containing the always dominant Derrick Henry for just 82 yards. If you sweated out the Giants cover like Tondo last week, and want to double down on Big Blue, have your antiperspirant on hand. This New York offense is good, but as evenly matched to the Mayfield-Anderson combo this season as you can get. I'll take the Giants one more time this year, but I won't be throwing a ton of units into the pot.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
I hate to be that guy, but even after their great win against the Pats last week, I think putting the Dolphins at a 3.5 point underdog is VERY generous to anyone betting on the Ravens. Against the Jets last week, the offense looked shaky, but they still had flashes of the powerhouse they could be this season. Miami added some serious offensive talent this offseason, including Tyreek Hill and Chase Edmonds, so I think it will be close, but they just have not had as much time to gel into an elite unit like Lamar Jackson and company. Look for the Ravens to take it in a close one.
4 PM Games
Atlanta Falcons at LA Rams
The Rams got off to a rough start in Week 1 against the Bills, thanks in part to Stafford's elbow, Von Miller's tenacity, and Cam Akers' near-complete absence from the field. There are a lot of things this team needs to correct if they want to contend for back-to-back titles, but I think this week against Atlanta is a great place to start. To hit this double-digit spread, Stafford is going to have to get a lot more comfortable with receivers not named Cooper Kupp, specifically Allen Robinson. Against a Falcons team that blew a significant lead to the Saints last week, I think LA will have plenty of time to make mistakes, learn, and come away with a big win.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
After everything that transpired this offseason, who would have thought that I'd be hammering Seattle right now? Honestly, probably me, but that's unimportant now. After taking down former QB Russel Wilson and the Broncos last week, the Seahawks are looking to prove why they still can be a contender in one of the best NFC Wests ever. While I don't think Geno Smith is better than what I think Trey Lance could be, he sure is better than him right now, especially after Lance's performance in Chicago in Week 1. His receiving corps will be able to handle a secondary sans Jamal Adams, but only as long as he can effectively get the ball out of his hands. A 9 point boost for Seattle is very generous, so I would take advantage of it while you can.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
I hate to be that guy, but even after getting embarrassed by Minnesota in the season opener, Chicago beating San Fran in the Monsoon Bowl, and all of the questions surrounding this Green Bay receiving corps, I simply cannot take the Bears against Aaron Rodgers. We see this story literally every year; Rodgers racks up a bad loss or two, everyone doubts him, and he takes his frustration out on Chicago. While I don't think it's conducive to winning a Super Bowl, it's enough for me to lay my money on Green Bay for this nationally televised game.
Tondo's Week 2 Picks
1 PM Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
It’s the battle of the questionable. Both teams are banged up after their wins last week. Tom Brady is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular as a Buc, (TB12 did beat them in the 2020 divisional round). The Buccaneers have lost six straight regular season games to New Orleans. I think this week he changes that.
Winning by a Field Goal, Bucs -2.5
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Last week, we saw the Lions keep it close to a very solid Eagles squad, while the Commanders limped to victory against the Jaguars. Wentz threw for 4 touchdowns, while the Lions run game did the heavy lifting. Either way, it was a surprise for both teams. For the first time in 24 games, the Lions are the favorites! Count me in.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
After all four AFC South teams failed to pick up a Week 1 win, can Matty Ice change the narrative for Week 2? The alarming stat of the day is that the Colts haven’t beat the Jags on their turf since 2014. Like the Bucs/Saints, this week changes things. Sorry Eric Dunn, my guy can’t pick the Jaguars, despite the numbers. Seeing Trevor Lawrence “motivate” the team in the tunnel was enough for me.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
So let me get this straight. The Pats got washed by the Dolphins, while the Steelers washed the Bengals, and now the Pats are favorites in the Steelers house?! Confusion. I understand TJ Watt is out, but still. Najee Harris is cleared to play and that’s enough for me to still confidently take the Pittsburgh. Mac was banged up after the game and missed some time this week with an illness. The offensive line showed its struggles.
My lock of the week is Steelers +3
4 PM Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys
What a tough week for both teams. The Bengals and Joe Burrow struggled against a division rival, while the Cowboys lost Dak for a few weeks after break his hand. I am still a firm believer of the Bengals though. And I just can't see the Bengals moving to 0-2 on the season Can Cooper Rush save the day for Dallas? Unlikely.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
Hats off the the Raiders for keeping it close to the Chargers last week. The AFC West is going to be an absolute gauntlet. Could the Cardinals redeem themselves? Maybe, but it’s worth noting that the Call of Duty Modern Warfare Beta dropped this weekend. I hate that we have to say this but Kyler definitely hoped in the on the fun. It’s been proven that Murray has a worse passer rating, lower passing yards and completion percentage, and more losses on double XP weekends of COD. Take that as you will, Raiders -5.5.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
The Texans came and shocked some folk last week, while The Broncos look like a good football team that made a handful of mistakes
I think Lovey Smith trusts Davis Mills more then Nathaniel Hackett trusts Russell Wilson. An alarming statement, I know. So Let’s ride? Ehhhh I don’t think so.