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For the final time this season, it's time to make some money. Welcome back to Postseason Spreads, where Will Tondo and I give you the biggest bets for the biggest game of the year. Here's how we think everything will go down in the Big Game, and where you should lay down your cash.
The House Enterprise Prop Pick Challenge
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The Big One
Basel's Picks
Game Picks
After one of the greatest playoff runs ever, Ohio's new second son (sorry Joe, LeBron's probably still got you beat) faces his greatest test yet against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. They enter this game on a streak that includes victories over a tough Las Vegas Raiders, the 1-seed Titans, and Patty Mahomes' Chiefs. Can they close out and win it all in just Burrow's second season in the league? If everything goes right for the Bengals, I do think they have a serious shot. While that "everything" is a lot, it's not too unrealistic.
The first thing, of course, is that Joey B needs to be at the absolute top of his game. Entering this game with one of the worst playoff offensive lines, he will likely come under pressure from some of LA's defensive behemoths like Aaron Donald. That being said, Burrow has come out on top in this year's playoffs after getting sacked multiple times, most notably nine times against the Titans. As long as Burrow can keep his cool, and prevent himself from hitting the ground on his throwing arm, he should be able to shake it off and deliver a solid performance. LA's blitz game is a lot better than their pass rush, so as long Burrow can get the ball in the air, he'll be good to go.
Defensively, I think a lot of people have underestimated the Bengals. Yes, they've put the Bengals in plenty of holes this season that Burrow has had to come back from, but on the biggest stage, I think we'll finally see something click. This defense has lit up the second half on many occasions, allowing only 3 points in the entire second half against Kansas City. If we see the same Bengals defense we saw against KC, then I think the Bengals have a major shot at winning this one.
As for the total score, I'm gonna go with the under. It's the Super Bowl, and teams always tend to play a bit more conservative no matter who is slinging the ball. Considering the fact that this is the first rodeo for both of our QBs, there will be plenty of jitters-induced mistakes. For a score prediction, give me 24-21 Bengals.
Bengals ML
Bengals +4
U 48.5
Prop Bets
Tee Higgins has been a bigger target for Joe Burrow this postseason than you'd think. With all the pressure on Chase, it makes sense for Burrow to have a solid second target, allowing Higgins to rack up 7 and 6 receptions in the last two playoff rounds. Throw the over on his receptions as a dark horse pick.
Tee Higgins OVER 5.5 receptions made
This year's National Anthem pick is a bit tough, but I'm still standing by my classic pick of the over. With country singer Mickey Guyton performing this year's rendition, I think a lot of people expect her to play it safe and go short, but come on. It's the Super Bowl. Everything is a spectacle.
National Anthem OVER 1 minute, 35 seconds
As I mentioned before, Joe Burrow will likely be getting sacked this game, even though it won't phase him much. Where will those sacks come from? In my opinion, the answer is obvious; Aaron Donald. The man is a defensive genius, and will have no problem getting around the Bengals O-line to take Burrow to the ground.
Aaron Donald first sack of the game
Matt Stafford is a great QB, but the boy just does not like to run. With the weapons he has, why would he?
Matt Stafford UNDER 5.5 rushing yards
Tondo's Picks
Game Picks
I want to preface this by saying, I am rooting for the Bengals, but I am also rooting for good football. I would love for the Bengals to win, so that’s why I am taking the points. Cincinnati is 13-7 ATS this season, and perfect in the playoffs. The offense is electric, but does their line have enough juice to slow down Aaron Donald and Company?
My mental roadblock this game is because of two variables. The first being that this collection of players on the Rams team is one that we will never see again. Von Miller, OBJ, Matt Stafford, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and plenty more. They mortgaged the future and they won’t be able to afford all of these guys soon. They don’t have a first-round pick until 2024, which would make it 9 straight years without one. The eager and need to win is at an all-time high.
The second is the fact that the Rams are playing at home. Now I am not saying this because of fans, because I think it’ll be spread pretty evenly. I am saying they don’t have to mess up their routine, they get to sleep in their own beds, less travel, it all equals to better quality of performance. We saw the Bucs do the same thing last year and boom, Super Bowl Champs. They have been here before a short time ago. Coaches normally feel more comfortable the second time around. I think the Rams finish it up in a close one.
As for the O/U, I would love for a shootout and high scorer, but the last three Super Bowls have been unders. Does that me the over is due? I feel as though it’s going to be a lot of sitting in coverage and short passes, plus having two very good kickers on each side. My score prediction is 24-21 Rams, so I shall take the under.
Rams ML
Bengals +4
U 48.5
Prop Bets
You would think it’s 50/50, but “tails” owns the all-time advantage at 29-26. This season specifically, tails never fails, and a fun one you shouldn’t overthink.
Coin toss-Tails
Since 1999, 64% of Super Bowl first quarters have failed to crack double digits. I read on Action Network that the Bengals averaged 4.3 points per first quarter while the Rams averaged 4.0, for a combined average of 8.3. And the first quarter under was 14-6 in Rams games and 13-6-1 in Bengals games, for a combined record of 27-12-1 (69%).
First quarter UNDER 9.5 points
I’ve seen this one all across social media and the internet, and I am all for it. OBJ is having a monster postseason with the Rams, averaging almost 80 yards a game. I think the coverage will be focused on Kupp, leaving OBJ a chance to make some noise this game. The Rams have scored the first touchdown of the game in their last four games. In total, they scored the first touchdown of the game 12 times this season. Kupp only scored the first touchdown twice, as did OBJ, who has only been on the team half the season.
OBJ: OVER 62.5 rec. yards + Anytime TD Scorer + First Rams TD
The safe pick for sure, as Mixon scored the first TD five times this season, and I think the screen pass/run game is going to be crucial for the Bengals.
Joe Mixon Bengals First TD Scorer