Georgetown vs Butler Preview

It’s been a long time since I’ve written something, but Georgetown and Butler face off tomorrow, and I’ve spent far, far too many hours watching both of these teams. Rather than going super in depth as I tend to do, I’m just going to give some brief notes on some thoughts I have on how these two teams match up:

The Power Forward Spot

All season long, Georgetown has been burnt by offensively dominant Power Forwards, particularly those with size and aggressiveness on the inside. Tre Carroll went for 22 points and 8 rebounds on 9/15 shooting, Caleb Wilson had 20 points and 14 rebounds on 7/12 shooting and Malik Reneau went for 23 points on 8/14 shooting in just 27 minutes. 

Michael Ajayi brings his exact matchup. He’s a physical PF who bullies his way inside and is super aggressive on the offensive glass, something Georgetown has struggled with. Ajayi, for all his numerous strengths, tends to revert to settling for jumpers if he’s played physically. If I’m on the Georgetown staff, I have to think deeply about Jayden Fort playing a lion's share of minutes to attempt to slow down Ajayi.

Ajayi is too big and athletic for Caleb Williams, and where Jayden Fort doesn’t have nearly the offensive game of Ajayi, he could slow down Butler’s best weapon (before likely getting into quick foul trouble).

Finley Bizjack

Finley's splits in Butler’s conference wins vs losses are drastic. 

In this game, he’s likely going to be matched up with KJ Lewis. Lewis plays super aggressively, particularly looking for turnovers. But guards against Georgetown have been able to get to their spots, and Georgetown tends to leave shooters in rotation.

I think Butler should look to get Finley involved in more off-ball actions in this game. Run him off screens, and I don’t think Georgetown’s ball pressure at PG will be enough to deter Stink Robinson from helping to make plays for Finley. On the ball, Georgetown can blitz him and make him give it up. If the Hoyas want to run switches, I think Butler could find some matchups they’d want to target.

Pace Of Play

In conference play, Georgetown is slowing games down to a crawl. The Hoyas are last in tempo during Big East play, and played their game against Creighton to 64 possessions. Butler has only played one game below 64 possessions all season, their most recent loss to St. John’s. Oh, I forgot to mention that the Creighton game went to overtime. So in five extra minutes of basketball, Georgetown played a game that still had fewer possessions than every single Butler game but one.

Georgetown really wants to slow it down, which is something Butler has struggled with in league play. However, the Hoyas have also been sped up by teams like Xavier, North Carolina and Seton Hall. If you pressure the Georgetown ball handlers, they will speed up, which should be Stink Robinson’s MO tomorrow. Get in Malik Mack’s grill.

Free Throw Battle

Georgetown generates a ton of its offense at the free-throw line. In games the Hoyas attempt 28 or more free throws, they are 6-2. When they don’t, they are 5-8.

For all of their defensive drawbacks, of which there are many, Butler still doesn’t foul. The Bulldogs foul the least in the conference per KenPom, and do not give up many free throw opportunities.

When Georgetown isn’t getting to the free-throw line, its offense consistently settles for long twos. The Hoyas rank 10th in the conference in average 2pt attempt distance, which means they take a ton of dribble pull-ups, which would be a huge win for Butler’s defense. Georgetown forces opponents to shoot twos from the furthest away of any BE team, but if this turns into a jump shooting contest, you have to favor the Butler Bulldogs.

Summary

I think Butler has some clear matchup advantages here. Georgetown has been playing Kayvaun Mulready a lot lately for his pressure defense, but he also represents a perfect player for Butler to hide Finley Bizjack on defensively. Michael Ajayi is likely a matchup nightmare again for the Hoyas, and Georgetown’s offense settles for too many tough looks to outshoot a better shooting team. If Georgetown’s going to win, the Hoyas will have to crash the offensive glass, which teams have really been able to do against Butler.

I tend to side with the Bulldogs here to defend homecourt and keep the delusional NCAA Tournament dream alive for another day.

Butler 75, Georgetown 67