.png)
Coming off of a huge win over SMU, the Butler Bulldogs got a week off to prepare for a unique challenge that the Merrimack Warriors bring.
Merrimack Player to Watch
Adam “Budd” Clark: 21PPG, 4.3APG, 4.3RPG, 2.3SPG
Budd Clark is awesome. His outside shooting isn’t great, but he is lightning-quick getting downhill and has a very impressive mid-range pull-up. His usage rate is incredibly high, he will be the guy tasked with keeping Merrimack’s offense flowing in this one.
The plays at the beginning are nice, but from 0:15-0:30... that shows you all you need to see. He's NICE
What Makes Merrimack Unique
I mentioned above that Merrimack brings a unique challenge. It’s because of their defense and their extended 2-3 zone. They run a 2-3 zone, but make it really tough for shooters to get looks from the outside based on how they play aggressively on the wings and contest everything. They also gamble for steals at just about every opportunity, which is the exact opposite of most more conservative 2-3 zones.
Their zone can also morph into a 1-2-2 style trapping press, which Budd Clark causes havoc in. It’s a really unique look and will present some challenges, considering the past two seasons Merrimack has finished in the top five in defensive turnover percentage (highest percent of turnovers forced) in the country.
This zone is unique and Merrimack can use their defense to cause problems for Butler, a team that has struggled with turnovers this season. The Bulldogs have had at least ten turnovers in all of their games this season, including 16 turnovers (on 24.2% of possessions) in their loss to Austin Peay.
For how good Merrimack is defensively, their offense is really, really bad. They don’t move the ball much at all (355th in assist rate), have struggled from long range this season (357th in three-point percentage) and from the floor in general (339th in the country in effective field goal percentage).
How Butler Wins
I’ve said this game is a trap spot, and I still think it is. That said, so long as Butler can avoid turnovers they should win this one. Merrimack doesn’t do much to challenge your defense. Butler has struggled with turnovers all season long, though were much better at avoiding turnovers against SMU.
When Princeton knocked off Merrimack, they used creative offense and the long ball (10/22), to overcome 14 turnovers (23.7% of possessions) and this Merrimack zone. If Butler is to come out on top, I would expect the game to look very similar to this one.
Also, of note, Merrimack played at Rutgers on Wednesday, while the Bulldogs have had a full week to prepare for this zone. I think all of these advantages play into Butler’s hands, so long as the Bulldogs don’t turn the ball over, which is much easier said than done.
Prediction
I think this game is very close and annoying throughout. When Butler avoids turnovers, I think they will find good shot attempts, but the turnovers will lead to buckets on the other end. I think this game is pretty slow-paced, and more based on execution, which keeps this one close throughout.
I think Butler’s positional size and shooting ability will have them come out victorious in a pretty ugly game, the type of game that Butler hasn’t really played under Matta. I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this as a four-point game at the four-minute mark, but I will take Butler to hang on in this one.
Pick: Butler 67, Merrimack 60
Comments