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From House Enterprise, and inspired by Rich Eisen, I’m introducing “Overreaction Tuesday.” Every Tuesday throughout the NFL season, I will overreact to what I deem the biggest storyline to come from the prior weekend’s games across the league, that includes Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.
In the NFL, the stories and narratives change every single week. The bottom line is that it’s a long season (five months from Week 1 to the Super Bowl to be exact) and we don’t know how it’s going to end. All we can do is overreact to the most recent data, so let’s do that.
Week 9 - November 1-November 6, 2023
Tennessee Titans 16 (3-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Overreaction: Will Levis is the Tennessee Titans quarterback of the future. Through two weeks, the rookie out of Kentucky has 500 passing yards, is completing 60% of his passes, and has 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Just one week after his huge game against Atlanta in which he led his team to a 28-23 victory in his first career start, Levis took on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense on the road on Thursday Night Football. Levis looked great throughout, finishing with 262 yards passing on 22/39 through the air. He finished the game without a touchdown and threw an interception on the Titans final offensive play, but has clearly shown that he should be QB1 over Ryan Tannehill moving forward. Tennessee has their next two on the road, @ Tampa Bay and @ Jacksonville, before returning home for back-to-back games against Carolina and Indianapolis. It’s an exciting time if you’re a Tennessee Titans fan. It could be just the beginning of the Will Levis era.
Miami Dolphins 14 (6-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs 21 (7-2) - Frankfurt, Germany
Overreaction: The Chiefs have the NFL’s best player and one of the league’s best defenses. In watching the Chiefs this season, it feels like Patrick Mahomes is having a pretty rough year. He has struggled at times to find consistency with his receivers and his offense has stalled for significant amounts of time throughout games. And yet, Mahomes is currently 3rd in the NFL in passing yards, 5th in touchdowns, and 7th in completion percentage. A down year for Mahomes standards? Yes. But a down year in general? Absolutely not. What KC undoubtedly has for the first time in Mahomes’ career is a top defense. The Chiefs currently rank 4th in the league in yards allowed per game, 2nd in points allowed per game, and just held the league’s top-ranked offense to a season-low 14 points. KC’s top corner, Trent McDuffie, leads the NFL in forced fumbles this year with 5 in nine games, leading a team that ranks 11th in total takeaways and 2nd in fumble recoveries. The Chiefs offense is a media focal point of what is holding them back. And yet, KC is 7-2 and in the driver's seat for the AFC’s top overall seed, while they definitely haven’t even hit their stride on offense. If Mahomes and his receivers get going, and the defense can continue its dominance, Kansas City is going to be extremely difficult to beat.
Minnesota Vikings 31 (5-4) @ Atlanta Falcons 28 (4-5)
Overreaction: The Minnesota Vikings are very much alive in the NFC playoff picture. The stories coming out of Atlanta after the Vikings unfathomable win over the Falcons are the stuff of legend. Quarterback Josh Dobbs spent the preseason with the Browns, then was traded to the Cardinals less than two weeks before Week 1, where he was immediately plugged in as the starter. Fast forward to this past week, when Dobbs was traded to Minnesota on Halloween, five days before the Vikings played the Falcons in Atlanta. The QB did not have a single practice rep throughout the week and didn’t know most of his teammates' names. And yet, after rookie starting quarterback Jaren Hall went down with an injury, Dobbs was thrust into the game, and he carried his team to a miraculous victory. He went 20/30 passing for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with his 7 rushes for 66 yards and a score, which led the team. Most impressively, the Vikings have won four straight games, including five of their last six, following an 0-3 start. Minnesota’s next four games include home matchups vs. New Orleans and Chicago and road games @ Denver and Las Vegas. The Vikings are very much in the thick of things at the halfway point of the season.
Arizona Cardinals 0 (1-8) @ Cleveland Browns 27 (5-3)
Overreaction: Book it now. The Browns will make the playoffs. Cleveland has struggled on offense at times throughout the season and has been without its starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, for much of the year as well. When Waston played, he hadn’t produced much. That changed on Sunday, as the QB went 19/30 for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 22 rushing yards on 3 carries. 139 of those yards came from Amari Cooper, who hauled in a touchdown as well in the win on Sunday. What’s been a mainstay for the Browns has been its defense, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Myles Garrett. The Cleveland D ranks 1st in the NFL in yards allowed per game and is #1 against the pass. They also rank 3rd in points allowed per game, only behind Baltimore (their Week 10 opponent) and Kansas City. They haven’t had a ton of help from the offense this year, and yet still are 5-3 in a very tough AFC North. It’ll be a huge Week 10 matchup for Cleveland against Baltimore on the road against a Ravens team that beat them 28-3 in Week 4.
Los Angeles Rams 3 (3-6) @ Green Bay Packers 20 (3-5)
Overreaction: This is the end for Sean McVay…for now. The Rams are 3-6, have lost three straight games entering their Week 10 bye, and have very little in the way of future optimism. Head Coach Sean McVay is just 37-years old and is in his seventh season with the Rams, having already led the team to two Super Bowls, including a victory in 2021. Since that Super Bowl win, however, his team is 8-18 and is on the verge of missing the postseason for the second straight year after not missing at all in his first five seasons. The Rams roster is filled with aging veterans such as Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, along with 35-year old QB Matthew Stafford, who is now struggling to stay healthy for the second consecutive season. Along with some older players at key positions, LA has just nine draft picks over the next two years, including just four in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. The good news is, they went all-in two years ago to win a title and they did. The bad news is, now, they are facing challenges at every turn because of it. If (when) the Rams miss the playoffs again and Aaron Donald departs or Matthew Stafford retires, or both, it’d make a lot of sense for McVay to retire (for now) and potentially start anew somewhere else in a few years.
Washington Commanders 20 (4-5) @ New England Patriots 17 (2-7)
Overreaction: After this season, Mac Jones will never be an NFL starting quarterback ever again. The Patriots are 2-7 with wins over the Jets and Bills. Those two wins are the only games of the season that Jones did not throw an interception. On the year, the third-year QB ranks 17th in passing yards and touchdowns and is tied for first with the most interceptions in the league (9). Through his first two-and-a-half years in New England, his numbers have gotten increasingly worse. Perhaps more importantly, he not only isn’t winning games for the Patriots (maybe outside of the win over Buffalo), but he is often the reason they do not win. Whether or not Bill Belichick is the head coach of the Patriots entering next year, the team will likely have a high enough draft pick to select a potential new franchise quarterback in the 2024 draft. Regardless of if they use their first round pick on a QB, I’ll be shocked if Jones is back in a Patriots uniform at the start of next season.
Chicago Bears 17 (2-7) @ New Orleans Saints 24 (5-4)
Overreaction: The winner of the NFC South will be the worst playoff team in the NFL, and they’ll get to play their Wildcard game at home. The Saints are in first place in the division at 5-4, a game ahead of the Falcons and two ahead of the Buccaneers, with the Panthers stuck in last at 1-7. The inconsistent Saints have defeated the Titans, Panthers, Patriots, Colts, and Bears, while losing to the Packers, Buccaneers, Texans, and Jaguars. They do not play very many tough games and are currently the favorite to win the NFC South. However, whether it’s New Orleans or any other division rival, they’ll likely own the worst record of any NFC division winner, which means they’ll host the best playoff team that did not win its division. At this point, that would be the Dallas Cowboys, who are currently positioned to finish in second in the NFC East. For any NFC South team, that would be a very challenging draw for a home playoff game.
Seattle Seahawks 3 (5-3) @ Baltimore Ravens 37 (7-2)
Overreaction: The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the AFC. The Ravens are tied for the best record in the AFC at 7-2, have won four straight games, and have won their last two home games by a combined 66 points, and that was against Detroit and Seattle. Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-like season, currently 20th in the NFL in rushing and 13th in passing with 14 total touchdowns. Baltimore has the 6th best offense in the league, but it's the defense that has been turning heads through the first half of the season. The Ravens D looks like its vintage self, currently ranking as the 2nd best defense in the NFL in yards allowed, only behind Cleveland. The unit is #1 in the league in points allowed per game (13.8) and is #2 in passing defense. The Ravens run the ball, take time off the clock, get the lead, and defend the pass. That recipe has led to the total destruction of opponents on multiple occasions this season. If Baltimore can win the AFC North and even sneak into the AFC’s top seed for the playoffs, they’ll be extremely tough to keep out of their first Super Bowl since 2013.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37 (3-5) @ Houston Texans 39 (4-4)
Overreaction: CJ Stroud is the Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans selected the former Ohio State QB with the #2 overall pick in the 2023 draft just one pick after the Panthers took Bryce Young from Alabama. So far, it’s looking like Houston got the better of the two. Stroud currently is 7th in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, and has thrown just 1 interception this year, which is the fewest among all starting quarterbacks. On Sunday, Stroud broke the NFL record for passing yards by a rookie with an epic performance in an iconic 39-37 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get the Texans back to .500 at 4-4. In the win, Stroud went 30/42 passing for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns. It’s the most passing yards by any quarterback in a game this season. He capped off the stellar performance by leading a game-winning touchdown drive in less than 40 seconds, taking his team 75 yards to the end zone without a timeout and throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to fellow rookie Tank Dell with 6 seconds remaining. It’s still only the halfway point of his rookie season, but it’s looking like the Texans have found their quarterback of the future in CJ Stroud.
Indianapolis Colts 27 (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers 13 (1-7)
Overreaction: The Panthers really screwed up the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Now look, there was a period of time in 2017 when Patrick Mahomes, who was selected 10th overall that year, was backing up Alex Smith, while Deshaun Watson, selected two spots behind Mahomes at 12th overall, was balling out as a rookie for the Texans. At that time, it sort of felt like maybe the Chiefs had made a mistake taking Mahomes ahead of Watson. I don’t think anyone would say that now. Digressing, through the first half of the NFL season, the #1 overall pick of the Carolina Panthers from the 2023 draft, Bryce Young, has been less than impressive. He’s currently 23rd in the league in passing and has thrown 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, Houston’s rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is 7th in the NFL in passing and has thrown 14 touchdowns and a league-low 1 interception. The early returns are favoring Houston, just as they did in 2017. Will lightning strike twice or have the Panthers made a colossal error in the selection of Bryce Young over CJ Stroud?
New York Giants 6 (2-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders 30 (4-5)
Overreaction: The New York Giants season is cursed. The Giants’ two wins include a 20 point comeback victory over Arizona and a 14-7 win over Washington in a game where New York punted 8 times. Since that defeat, the Giants have lost back-to-back games against the Jets and Raiders, scoring an abysmal 16 points along the way. In fact, in their games this year, the Giants have scored 20+ just once, in the win over the Cardinals. This past Sunday, Quarterback Daniel Jones, who was playing in his first game in four weeks, tore his ACL, ending his season. This past Summer, the Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million extension. Now, he won’t even be able to finish his first year of the extension. New York still has the brunt of their schedule ahead of them, with road trips to Dallas, New Orleans, and Philadelphia still to come. This team may very well be in position to hit the reset button once again when the season is all said and done.
Dallas Cowboys 23 (5-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles 28 (8-1)
Overreaction: Dallas cannot win a Super Bowl as long as Dak Prescott is the quarterback. The Cowboys quarterback is having a solid season. He’s currently 9th in the league in passing and touchdown passes, is 3rd in completion percentage, and has led his team to a 5-3 start. In the game against the Eagles, he had perhaps his best statistical game of the year, throwing for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns without turning the ball over. And yet, if you watch the games, it’s still hard to see how Dallas could ever win a Super Bowl with him as the QB. Late in the game, Dallas miraculously was in position to take the lead. They had the ball at the Eagles 6 with 27 seconds remaining. On first down, Prescott was sacked for a loss of 11 yards, and Dallas did not have any timeouts, allowing the clock to run all the way down to inside of 10 seconds. On the games final play, Prescott completed a pass to Ceedee Lamb that was short of the endzone, never giving his receiver a chance to score. In that situation, as the quarterback, you absolutely cannot take a sack. And, on the final play of the game, you have to give your receiver a chance to make a play in the endzone. The good news is he added to that nice completion percentage and total yardage.
Buffalo Bills 18 (5-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals 24 (5-3)
Overreaction: The Buffalo Bills inability to run the football year-after-year is going to destroy Josh Allen’s career. The Bills have the 5th best offense in terms of yards per game in the NFL. They are 5th in the league in passing, but just 16th in rushing, with 108 rushing yards per game, 26 of which belong to the quarterback, Josh Allen, has the 7th most rushing yards among QB’s. In their latest game, a 24-18 loss to Cincinanti on the road, Allen threw for 258 yards and also led the team in rushing with 44 yards and a score. The non-Josh Allen runners combined for 8 carries and 24 yards. He’s doing everything by himself and it still is not enough. Buffalo has been playing this way for years, and sort of getting away with it in the regular season before the style of play comes back to bite them in the postseason. Now, they’re 5-4 and struggling more than they have in years with Josh Allen as the team’s leading producer on offense. If Allen and the Bills don’t get more consistent production in the run game, Buffalo might not just fail to win its division (currently in 2nd behind Miami), but could miss the playoffs altogether.
Los Angeles Chargers 27 (4-4) @ New York Jets 6 (4-4)
Overreaction: Zach Wilson will once again be the reason the Jets don’t make the playoffs. The Jets three game winning streak came crashing to an end on Monday Night as the Chargers dominated New York from start to finish in an emphatic 27-6 win. It’s the sixth time in eight games that the Jets scored one offensive touchdown or less in a game. They are somehow 3-3 in those games, simply because they have one of the best defenses in the league. Quarterback Zach Wilson, however, has been struggling since he inherited the job on the team’s opening drive of the season after the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Wilson is currently 24th in the league in passing, has as many touchdowns as interceptions (5), and is 30th in completion percentage (59.9%), not to mention he’s taken the 2nd most sacks in the league (31), only behind Washington’s Sam Howell. If/when the Jets fail to reach the postseason, it’ll once again be due to very below average quarterback play.
Week 9 Teams on Bye:
Broncos (3-5)
Lions (6-2)
49ers (5-3)
Jaguars (6-2)