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It’s been a little too long since I was able to write anything, so it’s about time I get something published. Week 1 has passed us, and with the season getting into gear, I want to get some of my reasoning for my picks this week.
RECAP: Here’s what I had last week, now for full transparency (and that I’m not expecting to be the sharpest NFL player), let’s have some fun with some picks! #OverreactionWeek
Losing Thursday, Winning Sunday, but Football is back so really we're all winners
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Baltimore
The Bengals are my favorite play this week. I wanted to get -3 -115 or lower, but the line isn’t moving that way. I got -3.5 at -102, but here’s why I like it.
The Bengals are coming off of an outlier performance. Burrow has always struggled against the Browns, and in an awful weather game, I’m going to trust one of the best few QBs in the NFL to bounce back. I don’t think the Bengals are nearly as bad as we saw them last week.
Normally, I’m a sucker for the Ravens. I took them in Week One and watched a good bit of that game. I was not impressed with them. Lamar looked rusty, and these injuries really piled up. The Ravens were bad and got away with playing Houston. Maybe we see Mark Andrews next week, but if we do I don’t think he plays at full strength. I do not expect Marlon Humphrey to play, and Marcus Williams got hurt on Sunday and will miss this week. Their secondary is shot, and against Chase and Higgins, you need everyone at full strength.
Also, the Ravens' offensive line is going to be much worse. Ronnie Stanley is their best lineman, and he got injured on Sunday. Their starting center Tyler Lindenbaum will also not play in this game. JK Dobbins also won’t play in this game and is out for the season, and I think he has a decent role in how this team plays.
I think the Bengals are prepared for a huge bounceback spot and this is a very tough game for the Ravens on the road. I think the Bengals win by at least seven points.
Tampa Bay (-3) vs Chicago
I don’t think the Buccaneers played very well in Week One. They beat a team I like, but they won the turnover battle 3-0 and Minnesota just made some awful plays. I thought Baker looked solid and the Bucs had some decent momentum. I think the Bucs' defense is underrated and they’re a sneaky team to win their division.
But this is a fade on the Bears. I know a couple of Bears fans up here, so we watched about the entire game. My god, they looked absolutely woeful. They were terrible. Their defense was water, leaving open just about every Packers WR and their offense had no momentum. I don’t think the Packers played all that well, the Bears just looked awful.
I think the Bucs are better than they showed and at home vs. a bad Bears team, I think they should cover the three.
It's now -2.5, so the line isn't going in my favor, but I'm standing my ground on this one.
Browns at Steelers (+2)
I think the Steelers win this game outright. Again, I’m sticking with my preseason guns here. I think the Browns took advantage of the worst possible performance we could have seen out of the Bengals. The Browns didn’t play all that well and were able to cruise off of an awful Bengals performance.
I think the Browns will get theirs on the ground, but the Steelers are an underrated football team. They are solid. Their defense is good, and I’m a Kenny Pickett believer. Week One at the 49ers is a nightmare spot. I think the market has overreacted to both games, and I’m getting a good number. I think these teams are about even on a neutral field, and Heinz is one of the best home fields in football when it’s popping.
The injury to Diontae Johnson is very tough, and I think Denzel Ward will be able to lockdown whichever one of Pickens/Robinson he gets on any given play. But, I feel like the Steelers will be able to win this game in the trenches and stay competitive. Close, low-scoring game and I think that favors Mike Tomlin.
This one also hasn't gone in my favor and is now at +2.5. If it gets to the full three, which I don't expect, I'm playing it again.
Raiders at Bills (-8.5)
Sticking to my preseason guns here as well. Josh Allen is my favorite player in football and he can’t possibly play that bad again. The Jets' defense always has his number, I’m willing to write that game off.
I think the Raiders are one of the worst teams in football. I’m not high on this team at all. The Broncos offensive line sucks and they couldn’t generate real pressure. I’m not a Jimmy G. guy, and with injuries to Adams and Meyers, I think this one could get tough. They’re going to have to run on the Bills, who couldn’t tackle, so that’s likely their best path to victory.
But the Bills are going to absolutely run it up on these guys. They could easily score 40 points here. Bills get up early and absolutely steamroll this game. I think we get a full bounceback for the Bills at home against an awful team. Full bounceback spot against a team I think is one of the worst five in football.
I took some alt. numbers too. Bills by a million.
Full Card:
Bengals -3.5
Tampa Bay -3
Steelers +2
Bills -8.5
Bengals-Cowboys parlay (-104)
Chiefs-Giants ML Parlay (+129) (idk I think they both win)
Bills -15 (+180)
Bills -23.5 (+427)
Bengals-Cowboys-Bucs-Bills (+307)
Add: Chiefs-Giants (+874)