Om Brown: Evaluating My 2024 College Football Preseason Predictions
- Om Brown
- 19 hours ago
- 9 min read
This past season, college football fans, the media, and 134 programs around the country navigated uncharted waters, culminating in the Ohio State Buckeyes winning the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. With an expanded playoff chase, fantastic games, and stellar individual performances, the 2024-25 Playoff set a high bar for a new era in college football.
With 60 days to go before the 2025 Season begins, I will take a look back at my preseason predictions from last summer, breaking down what I got right, and where I was way off. I'll also provide a short, early, bold prediction for each conference this season.
3 Things I Got Right:
1. The SEC Championship Game (mostly).
I said in August that Georgia and Texas would match up three times. Once in the regular season, once in the SEC Championship, and one more time in the National Championship. While Notre Dame thwarted my finals prediction, I got the conference title game correct, at least, in terms of the participants. I thought that Texas would lose in the regular season, but get back against the Dawgs in the SEC title game. However, Georgia won the conference, going 2-0 vs. the Longhorns. Still, I’ll count this as a win for me.
2. Mississippi State as the doormat of the conference.
While I thought Vandy would be worse, I’ll still count this. The Bulldogs went 2-10 with no conference wins (I predicted 3-9). The future looks bleak in Starkville.
3. LSU’s record.
I predicted the Tigers to go from 10-3 to 9-4 and end their season with a bowl win. Can I look into the future? Maybe not, but I got this spot on.
3 Things I Got Horribly Wrong:
1. Vanderbilt.
I owe you an apology, Vandy. I was not familiar with your game. I thought the Commodores would go 1-11. Instead, they went 7-6 and took down a then-ranked #1 Alabama team to kick off the Crimson Tide’s downfall. Shoutout to Clark Lea for turning around the program. I can’t wait to see what they do in 2025.
2. Kentucky being next up.
I believed in Brock Vandagriff to lead the Wildcats to an 8-5 record, finally elevating the program post-Will Levis. Instead, Vandagriff was benched in a 4-8 season and recently announced that he would be stepping away from football. I was very wrong.
3. A seamless transition from Saban to DeBoer at Alabama.
I’m a big Kalen DeBoer guy and I think he will turn it around in 2025, but I thought he would have had a better first season. After leading Washington to a 14-1 record in 2023, their only loss in the National Championship, I predicted Bama to go 12-2 and pick up a first round W in the CFP. While DeBoer did get a huge win over Georgia and got the Crimson Tide up to #1, they finished 9-4, with 3 losses against unranked teams. How will they respond in 2025?
Bold Prediction for ‘25: Florida makes a push in the conference behind QB DJ Lagway.
Final Thoughts:
I still do think that the SEC is the best conference in the country. The Big Ten is more top heavy, but the SEC is deeper. One thing I overlooked last summer was the fact that this conference tends to cannibalizes itself. A whopping 6 teams went 5-3 in conference play, including Ole Miss, who I thought would be a top-3 team in the SEC. I definitely didn’t factor that in enough, which is why I had 4 teams going 11-1 in the regular season.
3 Things I Got Right:
1. Oregon’s dominance.
I’m going to give myself as much credit as I can in this project. I predicted Oregon to have a perfect regular season, which they did. While I incorrectly predicted their finish in both the Big Ten and in the College Football Playoff, I was correct in that they'd split their season series with the Buckeyes.
2. Penn State competing in the new-look conference.
Penn State was overlooked by most in 2024. Michigan was coming off a title, Oregon had joined the Big Ten, and Ohio State had a huge incoming transfer class. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions made the conference title game and the CFP semifinals. I may be a big hater of James Franklin, but I projected them to finish in the conference and make the CFP. I’ll give myself a win there.
3. Michigan’s disastrous falloff.
I told you so. Maybe not to a tune of 8-5 (5-4 in conference play), but I told you that Michigan wouldn’t compete in the CFP. Now, I did say that the Wolverines would go 10-3, but that still is a far cry from 15-0 and National Champs.
3 Things I Got Horribly Wrong:
1. Indiana being really good.
Do I think the Hoosiers had a weak SOR? Yes. Did I say they would get embarrassed in the CFP? Yes. However, in August I had Curt Cignetti’s squad finishing 17th out of 18 teams. I was very wrong here.
2. Underestimating Illinois.
I had the Illini finishing 15th in the conference, but they proved me wrong. Quietly, QB Luke Altmyer led Illinois to a 10-3 record and a 5th place finish at 6-3 in Big Ten play. I can comfortably say that I was way, way off.
3. Thinking Ohio State could actually beat Michigan.
I am embarrassed to say that yes, I thought that Ohio State would beat Michigan. Death, taxes, and Ohio State always losing to the Team up North are givens in life (at least since 2021).
Bold Prediction for ‘25: Michigan makes the conference championship game.
Final Thoughts:
Like the SEC, I didn’t factor in conference cannibalism, but there is a steep drop-off from the top to middle-tier teams from the SEC to the Big Ten. Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State picked on the bad teams to inflate their records in a way that the SEC's top dogs couldn't. The Big Ten is the second-best conference in College Football. There, I said it. Honestly, I think I did pretty good with this conference. Outside of Indiana and Illinois, I see no glaring issues with my original picks.
3 Things I Got Right:
1. Iowa State’s success.
I said that Iowa State could turn some heads in 2024. The Cyclones made it to the conference championship game. I’d call that turning heads. I didn’t get much right in the Big 12, so let me claim what I can.
2. Texas Tech's solid play.
I had the Red Raiders going 7-6 with a bowl win. They went 8-5 with a bowl loss. That is a solid season. I would consider this purgatory, as they didn’t really compete in the conference, so this is somewhat of a win for me.
3. 1 Big 12 team in the CFP.
While I was nowhere close to getting the team correct, I did mention that the Big 12 would only get 1 team into the CFP, and that’s exactly what happened. Yay me!
3 Things I Got Horribly Wrong:
1. Arizona State.
Like many, I had ASU finishing last. Not only did they not finish last, they won the conference title and almost beat my Texas Longhorns in the Peach Bowl. Way to prove literally everyone wrong. I can’t wait to watch coach Kenny Dillingham in year 3.
2. Oklahoma State's tumble.
The Cowboys started the season ranked and 3-0. Then, they proceeded to lose a whopping NINE games in a row to go 0-9 in conference play and finish 3-9. Not exactly taking over the conference.
3. Utah's underperformance.
I really could go anywhere here, but I’m going to stick with the Utes. I had them going 11-3 and losing the conference championship. They stunk it up in 2024 and finished the year 5-7. It was a rough year for teams projected at the top of the conference.
Bold Prediction for ‘25: Colorado falls off without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.Â
Final Thoughts:
I was dead wrong about the Big 12. You can basically take my projected worst teams and flip them with the teams I thought could make some noise, and you’d get what actually happened.
3 Things I Got Right:
1. Clemson’s return to the top.
Dabo Swinney has been criticized by many for his reluctance in the transfer portal, especially in this current era of college sports. However, QB Cade Klubnik had a breakout year in 2024, leading the Tigers to the CFP just like I predicted. I did say that they'd be more dominant during the season, but this is a win in my book.
2. Miami competing in the ACC.
Miami fared a bit better than my projected record of 9-4, Cam Ward lived up to his hype, and the Canes controlled their destiny for most of the year until coach Mario Cristobal ultimately choked. In August, I said that their only question was if he could coach this team over the hump. In the end, he couldn’t.
3. SMU's performance in their first year in the conference.
Coming off an AAC conference win, SMU wasn’t expected to make it all the way to the ACC title game, let alone the College Football Playoff. While QB Preston Stone was benched for Kevin Jennings, I had the Mustangs going 9-4, and they finished with a great record of 11-3. I’d say I did a solid job with them.
3 Things I Got Horribly Wrong:
1. Florida State.
I was one of the few who thought that FSU was not snubbed last year. Hoping for an encore of the 13-1 2023 season, the Seminoles won a whopping 2 games. Nobody could have predicted a fall off like that, but I did mention that if DJ Uiagalelei struggled, so would the team.
2. Syracuse’s success.
I am a big Kyle McCord guy. I thought that he was screwed over at Ohio State, and that he could be a good NFL QB one day. However, I did not think that he would be this good. The NFL-bound signal caller led the country in passing yards and led the Orange to a 10-3 record and a Top 25 ranking. That's a lot better than the ugly 5-7 I gave them.
3. NC State’s struggles.
I thought that graduate QB Greyson McCall would be the guy to get the Wolfpack over the hump. Sadly, he suffered a concussion early in the season and was forced to end his football career. NC State went 6-7, a drop off from the 10-3 prediction I had.
Bold Prediction for ‘25: Carson Beck leads Miami to an ACC title.
Final Thoughts:
To be frank, I think the ACC is a total mess. The teams were overrated and somehow had 2 CFP entries that got blown out of the water. It's a wide open conference in 2025, especially with legendary coach Bill Belichick coming to North Carolina. I did say in August that the ACC is the SEC’s little brother that they push around all the time, and for the most part, that held true this year.
3 Things I Got Right:
1. Boise State earning the G5 auto-bid.
Honestly, since I only covered Power 4 teams, I just looked up who the favorites were, and then looked up their schedules. I had no idea who Ashton Jeanty was at the time of making predictions, and I just put the Broncos in. Yay me, I guess?
2. Correctly predicting Clemson’s loss.
While I didn’t get the opponent correct, I had the Tigers losing in the first round. This is a win for me.
3. Having the 12-seed lose.
I didn’t get much right in my CFP predictions, so this is cherry picking, but yes, I did say that the 12-seed would lose. It was Clemson instead of Boise State, and it probably was pretty obvious, but I’m going to count it.
3 Things I Got Wrong:
1. SEC representation.
I over-represented the SEC, and I thought that they would be way too good. There is a lot more parity in college football now, and this season’s Playoff reflected that.
2. High scoring games.
I predicted a lot of high-scoring, back-and-forth contests. What we actually got were either blowouts or low-scoring slugfests. I'll keep that in mind for this winter.
3. Not having Notre Dame in.
I wasn’t a big ND guy coming into the 2024 season, but they proved me wrong in a huge way. The Irish went all the way to the National Championship before they fell to Ohio State. I thought that their lack of quality opponents, as well as their conference independence, would hurt them, but they broke into the field and then played great down the stretch.
Bold Prediction for ‘25: SMU, ASU, Clemson, and Boise fail to make it back.
Final Thoughts:
I correctly guessed most of the teams that got in, but I got their endings wrong. I was also horribly off on the SEC this year. I do think that they are still the best conference in the country, but I was definitely wrong on many of the top team’s records, all having just one loss. This new 12-team field gives teams more room for error, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see zero undefeated teams in the College Football Playoff in a couple years.
One criticism I have of the Playoff is the seeding. Boise State and Arizona State had no business getting byes over Texas, Notre Dame, and even Penn State. Going forward, I would let the conference winners get an automatic bid, and then re-seed the teams. Other than that, the 12-team Playoff was a huge success.
Overall Final Thoughts:
The chaos, drama, renewed rivalries, and of course the CFP perfectly ushered in a new era of college football in 2024. NIL and the transfer portal has brought more parity between the conferences. College football is as wide open as it ever will be, and the 2024 season was an absolute rollercoaster. After another wild portal period in the spring, 2025 is shaping up to be an exciting new installment in the 12-team playoff era.