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Postseason Spreads: The Divisional Round

Updated: Jan 23, 2023

Image: NFL

Welcome back to Postseason Spreads! As we enter the Divisional Round, check out Will Tondo and I's picks for every game S/U and ATS, along with our favorite props from each game!

Basel's Playoff Picks Record: 5-1 (2-1 ATS, 3-0 ML)

Tondo's Playoff Picks Record: 3-3 (1-2 ATS, 2-1 ML)

Basel's Divisional Round Picks-The NFC

Saturday Night-New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Eagles ML

  • Giants +8

  • Devonta Smith OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards

I stand by the Eagles being one of the best teams I've seen in years. Everything about this roster (when healthy) is so airtight that I struggle to find anything to wrong with this team. However, an 8-point spread against a team as hot as the Giants, in an NFC East Rivalry playoff game, is downright disrespectful in my opinion. This Giants team is very talented, don't get me wrong, but the gameplan that Brian Daboll rolls out for this team every week is simply on another level. Jalen Hurts has not had a ton of field time over the past few weeks, so expect the rolling G-Men to punch the Birds in the beak early and force a stunning Philly comeback. For my prop, I'll take the over on Devonta Smith's receiving yards. He lit up the Giants already this year, so why wouldn't he want to en route to the NFC Championship?

Sunday Night-Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers

  • Niners ML

  • Niners -4

  • Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 34.5 Rushing Yards

The same blowout that the Cowboys pulled off against the Bucs last week will not be possible against the Niners. Their defense is elite, CMC has been explosive since joining San Francisco, and I don't think we need to debate anymore whether or not Brock Purdy can handle himself as an NFL Starter. I'm taking the Niners to cover pretty easily here, and Zeke to go under 34.5 on the ground. He's pretty much settled into this short down back role, and has frequently rushed for under 40 yards in recent weeks.

Tondo's Divisional Round Picks-The AFC

Saturday Afternoon-Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chiefs ML

  • Jaguars +9

  • Jerrick McKinnon ATTD (+112) AND 2 TD scorer (+600)

Am I believing way too hard in the Jaguars? You bet. I’m a sucker for the recency biases. But listen, Chiefs should (and probably will) win this game outright. Trevor Lawrence can’t have a game like he did last week. He got bailed out. However, Kansas City is awful against the spread. 5-11-1 this season compared to Jacksonville’s 10-7. Fun fact since 2003, 1-seeds in the Divisional Round have gone 13-25-1 (34%) ATS. If there’s some magic left in Doug Pederson’s hat, it’s to cover in the divisional round. My TD scorer is McKinnon, who has been an absolute weapon in the backfield and in the passing game. He’s scored a receiving touch down every game in the last six, and scored multiple times in three of those contests. No brainer plays here.

Sunday Afternoon-Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills

  • Bengals +5.5

  • Bills ML

  • Josh Allen U 277.5 Passing Yards

Obviously this game is the matchup everyone has circled. Unfinished business after the cancellation a few weeks back. I bet money this becomes the most watched game in all of history but either way, it’s going to be a dog fight. Two Super Bowl caliber teams ready to duke it out. I feel that the Bengals are playing fantastic football and are hard to be stopped, however this game is for Hamlin, and the Bills aren’t losing in front of their crowd. I think it’ll be a close fought game, so give me Josh Allen under 277.5 passing yards. Absolute defensive battle.


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