Happy Sunday! While multiple playoff teams out of the NFC East is a lot to ask for these days, Philly has a chance at making a late season wild card push. Find out how Tondo and I think they'll fare against the Giants this week, as well as our picks for every other game this Sunday.
Basel's ATS 2021: 39-23-2 (5-2 Week 11)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 30-33 (5-1 Week 11)
Tondo's Week 12 Picks
1 PM Games
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
The Eagles have been cruising this past month, averaging over 200 yards rushing and going 3-1. Hurts has been cruising and open up as the favorites. This pick might bite me but my excitement of not having Jason Garett as the offensive coordinator has me feeling dangerous. Saquon Barkley is back, the defense is producing, and it’s Freddie Kitchens time baby.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
A rat game for sure. The battle of bad teams’ - part one. The Falcons have fully imploded the past couple weeks. They faced the Cowboys and Patriots and scored a combined 3 points. Yikes. The Jags have four wins ATS as underdogs this season. After talking with Jaguars superfan, Eric Dunn, I’ll ride with them out of respect, but man this game is ugly.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
In their first matchup earlier this season, Joe Burrow went 14 for 18 with 172 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Joe Mixon rushed for 90 yards, and Ja’Marr Chase was averaging 16 yards per catch with two touchdowns. Big Ben threw for over 300 yards but threw two picks. Steelers are a confusing team. They are 6-1 ATS as underdogs in the last 7 and 4-1 ATS on the road in their last five. All that being said, I think the Bengals are a better team. If we’re looking at last week, the Bengals took on a potential playoff team in the Raiders and won, while the Steelers dropped to the Chargers and tied the Lions prior. I’ll roll with the Bayou Bengals -3.5.
New York Jets at Houston Texans
Another rat game. Man, two crappy teams face off with only two points to spare. Somehow, despite giving up 400 yards, they beat the top team in the AFC last week (Titans). Tyrod Taylor is back, and team is mediocrely average. The Jets are, well the Jets. They lost to the Dolphins despite Elijah Moore catching 141 yards in the air. It all comes down to the numbers. Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six, while the Texans are 4-1 ATS at home. Can’t believe I’m doing this… Texans -2.
4 PM Games
LA Rams at Green Bay Packers
This could be a potential NFC Championship matchup. The Rams have caught up to reality, after dropping back to back games. They are 4-1 on the road, but 1-4 ATS in those games. The Packers on the other end are perfect at home. The way Green Bay has been playing, even with the loss last week, I think I have to ride with them.
Basel's Week 12 Picks
1 PM Games
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
With Cam Newton making his triumphant return to the Panthers, it's hard to bet against him and his current Carolina squad. That being said, I think Miami's defense will pose a bit of a challenge for the Panthers. The Dolphins have put up some serious defensive numbers over the past few weeks, limiting their opponents to under 20 points in their last three games. Cam Newton is still adjusting to Matt Rhule's system, and with some injuries on the O-line, I think the Dolphins can keep this one pretty close.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Well hello, New England! Over the past few weeks, the Pats have climbed their way to the top of the AFC East with a 5 game win streak, and look to extend it against the Titans, who just had their 6-game win streak snapped last week against the Texans. It's easy to get lost in this week's injury report, with the amount of names inducing a decent scroll to get all the way to the bottom. The Titans have no weapons this week (Brown, Jones, Henry all out), and the Pats are without their two top tight ends, their kicker, and a smattering of players on their offensive and defensive lines. Look for a low scoring, defensive slugfest that sees the Titans covering a 7 point spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
The Bucs have a pretty terrible history ATS when playing the Colts, 0-6-1 in their last 7 meetings. However, considering the fact that these guys have only played each other once every four years, it's really not a statistic to gawk at when evaluating this matchup. The Colts are pretty good this year, but they're no Tampa Bay. Even without Antonio Brown this week, the Bucs are an offensive powerhouse miles above most teams in the NFL right now. Tom Brady is well on his way to another MVP award, and has had no problem slinging for over 300 yards a game. Take the Bucs by a small margin in this one. If you're a handicapper, I'd even recommend selling some points if you wanna make this one more interesting.
4 PM Games
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
You never want to bet on a team that struggles to cover at home. The Broncos are 2-3 ATS when playing in Denver this year, and if they're not taking advantage of one of the most famous homefield advantages ever, something is up. The Chargers are on fire on the road this year, covering in 3 out of 4 total road games. When looking at what will hurt the Broncos the most, it's the run. Justin Herbert and his offense have been stellar on the ground, and Denver just can't seem to avoid giving up some serious rushing yards this year.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
The Vikings won one of the most exciting games of the season last week against the Packers, and despite going up against a surging Niners team, they should be able to sneak out the win in Santa Clara. Dalvin Cook will be the answer for why the Vikings come away with the win today, as San Francisco's defense is just not up to the challenge of facing such an elite rusher. When they're not struggling to stop the ground game, Cousins will dish to Jefferson and Thielen for some decent yardage.
Sunday Night Football
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens failing to cover last week against Chicago was mostly due to Lamar's absence with an injury. This week, he's nowhere to be seen on the injury report, and should be all good to go against Cleveland in this AFC North matchup. When Lamar is healthy, the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the league, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 AFC North matchups.
See you next week!