Sunday Spreads Season 2, Volume 13: Will the Chiefs Stay a Lock?
After sitting in last in the AFC West at one point this season, the Kansas City Chiefs are right back where they belong, which is right on top. With an ATS record better than their straight up W-L, are the Chiefs a mortal lock this week? Sam Basel and Will Tondo have the answer for their game and more on this week's Sunday Spreads.
Basel's ATS 2021: 42-26-2 (3-3 Week 12)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 33-35 (3-2 Week 12)
Basel's Week 13 Picks
1 PM Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
As much as the Bucs are clearly better than the Falcons, these two teams are surprisingly pretty even against the spread, both with a record of 5-6. While the Bucs are no doubt the better team, and will be able to pull off the win today, they've got a revolving door of injury problems (and now with Antonio Brown, fake vaccine cards), meaning that they'll have to pull off a bit closer of a victory against the Falcons today. Aside from AB, the biggest hit to the Bucs today is in their secondary, giving Falcons WR Calvin Ridley plenty of room to have a big game. I won't say this often, but give me Falcons +10.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
As bad as the Jets are, this one is as close to a tossup as we're gonna get for today. If you have to bet on this one, the biggest factor to take into account is the status of Jalen Hurts. As of Sunday morning, Hurts has been very doubtful to play due to sustaining an ankle injury, meaning that Gardner Minshew could be behind center today. Minshew is a bit better of a QB than a lot of people give him credit for, but when taking the start under such short notice, as well as how inconsistent the Eagles have been as an away team this year, and I think the Jets actually have a fighting chance in this one.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are expected to play today, making the Cardinals my lock of the week. The Bears defense has been pretty solid this year, but their offense just can't seem to get it together. Even with Colt McCoy starting for Arizona, I just think the Cardinals outclass Chicago in every offensive category, making Cardinals -7.5 the safest bet on the board today.
4 PM Games
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh's offense is a shell of what it once was, due in large part to Big Ben's arm just not being up to snuff this year. Even if they resort to the run game today, Baltimore's defense against the ground game is one of the best in the league. If that's not bad enough, the Steelers are one of the worst home teams against the spread this year. According to TeamRankings.com, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS at Heinz Field in 2021. Take Ravens -4 today and don't look back.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams
In a bounce-back game for the Rams, covering a 12.5 spread is a lot to ask for. That being said, it's against the Jaguars, so I think it's a safer bet than it would be against anyone else this season. As long as Stafford doesn't turn the ball over, Rams -12.5 is the way to go.
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders
In the same way that MMA judges usually give the decision to the champs, I usually like to give a 1-2 point spread to the favorites, in this case the Raiders. Washington is pulling kind of a Washington right now, and stringing together some exciting wins to tease fans into a potential wild card appearance. However, the streak ends today when the Football Team has to deal with Josh Jacobs. With Darren Waller out, the Raiders will look to a run game that Washington has had some trouble stopping this season, and take this one by a razor thin margin.
Tondo's Week 13 Picks
1 PM Games
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Now this is a match up. An AFC battle between two of the leagues top young quarterbacks. The Bengals have been quite the surprise this year, not only because of Joe Burrow, but a big upswing from Joe Mixon and their defense. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, so Bengals -3.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
The Colts have been quite a journey team this season, and Jonathan Taylor is a top-five running back. They lost a heartbreaker to TB12 and the Bucs last week, so expect them to take that out on Houston. I feel like the Texans might surprise everyone here, but I can’t responsibly wager against Indy, Colts -10.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Miami is on a four game win streak, and their defense is turning heads. 10 takeaways in that win streak and the offense is starting to produce big time. The Giants defense is the saving grace for New York, with injuries galore and a new offensive scheme getting implemented. No Daniel Jones and injuries again. Ugh. Still though, the Giants are 12-3 ATS as away underdogs in their last 15 games and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, I’ll take Giants + 7.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
A Wild Card bubble team at the moment, the Vikings find themselves needing a win streak. Kirk Cousins has been great this season, but is it enough? Heart break after heart break for the opposing team, I feel for them. The Lions are 0-10-1 but they are the covering Lions this season, they are are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Dan Campbell is due, let’s go Lions +7.
4 PM Games
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Things are looking dim for Seattle after their sixth loss in seven games this past week. The 49ers however picked up their fourth win in the last five. It’s crazy how bad the Seahawks are struggling right now, while the 49ers are on an absolute upturn. That being said, the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. I’ll go San Francisco -3.5.
Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are back on the winning side, getting much hype as a Super Bowl favorite. The Broncos aren’t out of it yet, and are seeing a little mid season revitalization with their impressive run game. Almost a 10 point spread, is this a trap game? The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS against the Broncos in their last 11 games, but are 5-13 ATS as favorites in their last 18 games. Give me Broncos +9.5.
See you next week!