Image: The Athletic
Welcome back, House Bettors! Whether you're looking to grab a quick buck for dinner tonight, start saving up for your Halloween costume, or flex on your friends in a spread pool, Will Tondo and I have you covered! Here are our picks for every Sunday NFL Game in Week 3.
Basel's ATS 2021: 4-3
Tondo's ATS 2021: 2-5
Basel's Week 3 Picks:
1 PM Games
Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
A meeting between two very different 2020 Division champs, there is a lot more under Washington's hood than fans may expect. While the Bills remain the favorite by at least a touchdown in several books, the spread since Tuesday has shifted in favor of Washington by as much as two points. Sorry to be harsh towards Washington, but I'm not sure what the books are seeing. If Washington had trouble reading the Giants' routes, I can only imagine that the Bills will light them up. Given Washington's shaky defense, as well as Taylor Heinicke having to match the pace of Josh Allen on offense, taking Buffalo by a touchdown seems like a steal here. Worst case scenario, Buffalo wins by seven and the bet ends in a push.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
While I do think Indy's 0-2 start is due in large part to hitting a tough part of their schedule early, Carson Wentz' questionable availability will make today's game against Tennessee a tough one to help turn the season around. Should Wentz not suit up, we could possibly see split field time between young guns Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley. This dual-QB playstyle is something that's fun when seen in college, but in the pros, it rarely produces wins. Take the Titans covering against a struggling Indy offense.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
We've seen two very different Jameis Winston's in just two weeks so far this season. If I had to put my money on it (which I'm literally doing in this article), I think we'll see a more composed Jameis than we saw last week. Maybe not the one we saw light up Green Bay, but a step up from the one who lobbed interceptions to Carolina. In a QB matchup that features a rookie going up against a relatively new starter for the Saints, it may come down defense and head coaching. Bill Belichick knows how to pick apart a shaky O-line, which New Orleans clearly has without C Erik McCoy. Look for the Pats to barely cover in this one.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year, a DeAndre Hopkins injury would have forced me to immediately pick against Arizona. This year, aside from being a dual threat himself, Kyler Murray has so many options to throw to that Hopkins' Questionable designation barely bothered me. Despite Urban Meyers' promise to the fans to right the ship this year, I don't think the Jags are up to the challenge. Give Trevor Lawrence some more time in the oven, Jags fans, and write off 2021 as a season to develop your prodigy QB for the future.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Despite the last second loss, Daniel Jones proved that he can make smart passes when necessary in a close game. Matt Ryan, once the poster boy for "Is he elite?" conversations, has looked shaky at best in two opening losses. As long as the Giants can avoid any unnecessary penalties, they should cover and take the win easily.
4 PM Games
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
This Broncos offense is fast, efficient, and has proven that it can run up the score against mediocre-to-bad teams. The Jets, by nearly every offensive metric, are a bad team. Zach Wilson has taken way too many hits for me to be confident in his o-line so far, so expect Teddy Bridgewater to lead his team to a comfortable win.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
From a betting standpoint, this game is an absolute nightmare. The Seahawks are the better team, but their ground game, or lack thereof, was the killing blow against Tennessee. Russel Wilson, while a great passer, is much better when he has his options open. If Minnesota, with two one score losses, can keep this one down to the wire, they may have a chance, but I just can't trust a 1.5 point spread. Take Seattle and keep your fingers crossed.
1 PM Games
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
The Justin Fields era has officially begun for Daaa Bears. He walks into a difficult spot, heading to the Cleveland Dawg Pound for his first career start. Can he shock the world? Possibly, but Baker will be continuing his stride. The dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have quite the matchup against Khalil Mack and Co. The Bears front-seven against the Browns OL will be the matchup of the game. I am secretly rooting against the Bears because they owe their first-rounder to the Giants.
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions
The Ravens have been involved in two very close games this season, losing to the Raiders in OT and closing out a nail biter with the Chiefs. There is no question they are the superior team in this game, especially with their key player losses. Don’t sleep on the Lions either. I understand their defensive struggles, but they battled against both the 49ers and the Packers. Over a full touchdown underdog at home is kind of bold. I agree with the experts; the Ravens will win this game, but give me Lions +8.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Justin Herbert is going to be a star for years to come. Last year, Herbert nearly knocked off the Chiefs in week two, unfortunately losing the game 23-20. I can’t seeing Mahomes losing back-to- back, but the Chargers will put up a fight, especially with how close both KC games have been.
I’ll take Chargers +6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals are having some serious offensive line woes, failing to protect the second-year Burrow in the backfield. Enter TJ Watt. This isn’t going to be pretty. I can imagine Najee Harris having a triumphant game against the Bengals defense. It’ll be up to Big Ben on how much he can carve up the secondary. Bengals are 2-0 ATS this season, but this matchup smells like a Steelers -3.5.
4 PM Games
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins will be without their young QB, Tua Tagovailoa (ribs). This won’t help their case, as they are only averaging 8.5 points per game, compared to the Raiders 29.5. The Raiders are a hot team right now, currently 2-0 behind Derek Carr’s 817 yards and 4 TD’s. No Tua plus the Gruden hype train equals Raiders -3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Tom Brady is proving father time is no match for TB12. I am really surprised that they are only a one point favorite. The Rams rush game will struggle against the Buc’s top rushing defense, so Matt Stafford will need to rely on Cooper Kupp and company. Brady on the other hand, will go up against Aaron Donald. Not an easy task for Tristin Wirfs, but he has shown he can matchup against anyone.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
The Packers looked like their old selves against the Lions. Rodgers threw for four touchdowns and the defense sacked Jared Goff and intercepted him as well. The Lions were flat against Green Bay, while they were neck-and-neck with the 49ers. I am surprised the line is almost +4, this one seems too good to be true.