Sunday Spreads Season 2, Volume 5: 'Ello, Guvna!
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Happy Sunday! Week 5 is upon us, and with it, the first London Game of 2021! Due to today's London Game, we'll have football on our screens for more than 12 hours today, and there's no better way to celebrate than with laying down some bets. Starting this week with Mr. Tondo's picks, here's how he and I think each game will end against the spread this Sunday.
Basel's ATS 2021: 13-8 (5-2 Week 4)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 8-12 (2-4 Week 4)
Tondo's Week 5 Picks
London Game 9:30 AM-New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons
The classic jet-leg game. Anytime there’s football in London, crazy things happen. Both teams are 1-4 heading into the game. The Jets surprised the football world by upsetting the Titans, but can they keep the magic alive? The Falcons are an air raid team, tossing Cordarrelle Patterson three touchdown’s last week. Calvin Ridley won’t be making the trip, but pound-to-pound, the Falcons have a better team. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 500 yards and six touchdowns, plus no picks in the past two games. Both these
teams give me agita, but I’ll roll with the Falcons -2.5.
1 PM Games
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Broncos learned last week that their Mickey Mouse 3-0 was no match for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Steelers are in an odd spot, not having scored more than 17 points in the last three weeks, even with Najee Harris performing well. It’s sad to see Ben Roethlisberger go out like this, but his performance against the Bengals was pitiful. Broncos +1.5
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was banking on TB12 to shell out the Pats, but New England stood up to the challenge. I can’t imagine the Dolphins doing the same. Ten points is a steep one, but the Bucs are 7-1 as favorites in their last 8, and are 5-1 ATS against the bottom-ten defensive teams in their last 6. Bucs -10.
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team
The Football Team is rolling, while the Saints hit a snag last week against the Giants. Crazy to see, but Washington is 6-1 ATS verse the Saints in the past 7 and 4-1 ATS in their last five games totally. They are a sneaky team, despite the lack of performance from Chase Young. If the Giants can beat the Saints, well so can Washington. WFT +2.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Trouble in paradise aka Jacksonville, as Urban Meyer was a little too horny after a 0-4 start. The AFC South Matchup has to lean towards the Titans, even after an embarrassing upset verse the God Damn Jets. If Julio Jones and AJ Brown are back, expect the Titans to overcome last week. Titans -4.5.
4 PM Games
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Raiders
Justin Fields earns the nod as a starter again, but are dealing with a multitude of injuries, including running back David Montgomery, and both Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks missing practice while nursing injuries. The Raiders have outperformed many, but faced a serious reality check against the Chargers last week. They also are dealing with some internal turmoil, after an old email resurfaced from Coach Gruden (NSFW). Neither here nor there, looking at the numbers, Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Raiders -4.5 for me.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Trey Lance gets the nod as the starter, and could this be the dominos falling in place for San Fran? The 49ers are 8-2 ATS as away underdogs in their last 10 games while The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS against the 49ers in their last 7 games. I think Kyler Murray is a MVP front runner with his loaded offense, and I feel confident in this pick.
Basel's Week 5 Picks
1 PM Games
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
When comparing these two franchises on an all-time scale, Green Bay and Cincinnati seem to be on opposite ends of the success spectrum. Yet, oddly enough, the Bengals are 3-1 in their last four meetings with the Packers, 7-6 all time. Heading into today's game, Joe Burrow's and his current Bengals squad have a chance against Green Bay, but I think it's a slim one at best. The Packers are on a 3-game cover streak after getting their offense back into gear, and while I think their defense has been lacking this year, Aaron Rodgers shouldn't have too much trouble carrying his team to another win. As an underdog at home, the Bengals are 0-1 ATS this season. Gimme Packers -3 in this early afternoon matchup.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
I've said it in this column before, but I'll say it again; the Vikings are much better than their 1-3 record shows. A bad break against Cincy, two losses against solid playoff teams, and a win against the Seahawks prove that the Vikings hit a tough part of their schedule early, and this week's game against the Lions are a perfect time for them to start a bounce back. One of Minnesota's biggest strengths this season has been their ability to draw out offensive drives, and if Detroit's two best running backs (DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams) will be limited our out come game time, I don't think the Lions will have a ton of strength to respond.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Both Philly and Carolina are coming off of tough losses last week against Kansas City and Dallas respectively. However, I think the Panthers came out of their loss a lot more intact than the Eagles. Sam Darnold still looked solid against the Cowboys, throwing for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jalen Hurts has looked decent for a sophomore QB, but his inclination to run does not match up well against Carolina's defense, who have allowed just 95 ground yards per game this season. Panthers -3 is a steal in my opinion.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
This is my toughest pick of the week, so I'll get a little kooky with this one. All signs point to the Patriots to win this one straight up; Houston's continued injuries, Mac Jones' ROTY-worthy season, and the consistent greatness of Bill Belichick's greatness. However, an 8.5 point spread is pretty wide for the NFL, especially for a rookie QB to cover. Houston's offense has been pretty nonexistent without Tyrod Taylor, so pray for their defense to force Mac Jones to make mistakes. I know it'll be tough, but if you throw one unit towards Texans +8.5 and it ends up cashing, you'll have some major bragging rights in your picks group.
4 PM Games
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers being a home favorite shows just how far this team has come. Justin Herbert has led a versatile Chargers offense that beat a hot Raiders team by 14 last week. With last week's win and their win against the Chiefs, the Chargers have established themselves as a serious playoff contender heading into Week 5. If Baker Mayfield's shoulder injury limits his passing, and LA can stop Cleveland's ground game, I have no problem picking Chargers -2.5.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
While I don't think the Cowboys are strong contenders in the NFC as a whole this year, they're the clear frontrunners to win the East division, due in large part to Dak Prescott's incredible 2021 bounce back from injury. Dak, along with a resurging Ezekiel Elliot, will lead this Dallas offense against an injury riddled Giants team. Nothing too fancy here, aside from taking the Cowboys -7 as my lock of the week for the second week in a row.
Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Preseason, this would have been labeled as an early AFC Championship preview. At this point in the season, it still very well could be, but the way Kansas City's shaky start in 2021 makes those odds a little fuzzy. While Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen has been a much more consistent QB so far this season, and his receiving corps should be a major challenge against a weak Kansas City air defense. Mahomes has a great track record of defending his home turf, but even if the Chiefs pull off a win, the Bills will keep it very close.
See you next week!