Updated: Oct 23, 2021
Image: Sports Illustrated
Welcome back, bettors! Despite four teams entering their bye week in Week 6, we've got plenty of games for you to bet on, with picks from Will Tondo and myself! Before we get into our picks for this week, let's check out how Mr. Tondo and I did last week, as well as our season records so far.
Basel's ATS 2021: 17-10-1 (4-2-1 Week 5)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 12-15 (4-3 Week 5)
Tondo's Week 6 Picks
London Game 9:30 AM-Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Anotha’ match across the pond, lads. Both offenses aren’t very good, but the slight advantage goes to Miami. If Tua ends up playing, I’d feel more confident in this pick. The info of the game is that the Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last five and a whopping 0-18 as underdogs in their last 18 games. Dolphins -3.5.
1 PM Games
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
A complete tossup. Two AFC powerhouses facing off. The Battle of the 4-1 squads. Both the Ravens and the Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Something has to give. This year, the Chargers have the third-most passing yards and will look to take advantage against a Baltimore defense that ranks bottom-10 against the pass. I’ll ride the Herbert train another week, Chargers +3.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Colts had a heartbreaker on Monday night after an unlikely comeback led by Lamar Jackson. The Colts should be doing much better, because on paper, they have the pieces. Davis Mills might be a hidden gem for Houston. Last week against the Patriots, he threw for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. Okay! The Texans are 5-2 ATS as underdogs in their last 7 games and that’s a heavy spread against a streaky Colts team. Give me the Texans +9.5.
4 PM Games
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
I think the Browns are a very good team. Last week was indescribable for Cleveland. Their offense was shining. 42 points behind Baker’s 300 yards, and 222 yards of rushing from Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They will make the playoffs and do well this season, this matchup however, is in favor of the leagues only undefeated. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, and they have been the underdog for the third straight week. I have been riding the Cardinals this season heavy, and I will again this week. Cardinals +3.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are on a little skid after starting 3-0. I normally would be all over the Raiders in this game, but with the recent firing of Gruden, I don’t know where their heads are at. This could be a redemption game to overcome this, but I think the Broncos have more to prove. Raiders are 6-1 ATS against the Broncos in their last 7 games, but distractions are the outlier, Broncos -3.5.
Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
This will scratch some heads, but I like the Seahawks in this matchup. Big Ben is turning it up and Najee Harris is on a roll, but I am not for the Steelers this year. Five weeks in and they are giving me agita. Seahawks are 5-1 on the road in their last 6 games and 8-2 ATS as away underdogs in their last 10 games, The secondary might be underperforming and no Russell Wilson, but I low key love a Geno Smith resurgence. Seahawks +6.
Basel's Week 6 Picks
1 PM Games
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The latest edition of one of the NFL's oldest rivalries brings plenty of fun storylines into the mix; whose win streak (Packers at 4, Bears at 2) will be broken? How will the young gun Justin Fields match up against seasoned vet Aaron Rodgers? Are the Packers serious Super Bowl contenders? While I do think Justin Fields could surprise viewers against a depleted Packers secondary unit, I think Green Bay's offense has just been too hot. Any readers that play fantasy football should know that the Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams connection has been on fire since Week 2, and when the Packers aren't throwing the ball, Aaron Jones is picking up crazy yardage from scrimmage. Packers -8 should be no tall task for Rodgers and his crew this week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
At 0-5, with two losses on last second field goals, the Lions enter this week STARVING for a win. The Bengals, at a surprising 3-2, are also coming off of a last second loss that saw them and Green Bay trade several botched field goals in overtime. In order for the Lions to cover, they'll need to let DeAndre Swift cook from scrimmage. With Detroit's defensive strength being their ability to stop the pass, albeit not well, they can outmatch Cincy's currently bruised and battered ground unit. Lions +3.5
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Even without the Giants current injury woes, I still don't think they would've been able to cover against the Rams this week. After clearing concussion protocols, Daniel Jones should be good to go for New York, and Kadarius Toney could be a bright spot as a new target. However, this QB-WR tandem will need a lot of time to gel before they come close to matching the Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp connection that has dominated so far this season. Along with Robert Woods, Stafford should have plenty of targets as the Rams dominate the Giants secondary unit today. Rams -8.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
Kansas City has gotten off to a very shaky start in 2021 both ATS and straight up, covering just once so far in 2021. While Kansas City's reliance on their offense is starting to become less and less reliable every week, an injured Washington offensive line should allow the Chiefs defense to finally take the brunt of the work for once, giving Mahomes and crew plenty of opportunities to run up the score. Chiefs -6.5
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
This is as close to a toss up as I'll get this week, but I still think Carolina is a strong underdog pick. If Dalvin Cook can get some decent touches, then maybe the Vikes can cruise to a win, but with a league second-best total defense, and an emerging Sam Darnold, I see the Panthers improving to 4-2 this week. Panthers +2.5
4 PM Games
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
I've been riding high on the Cowboys for like three weeks now, and against this season's Patriots, I don't think I'll be stopping anytime soon. Dallas' offense, while pretty talented for the past couple of years, is finally clicking following Dak Prescott's return this year. With Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, and of course Zeke, Prescott should have plenty of targets to light up even Bill Belichick's historically great New England defense.
See you next week!