Welcome, football fans! Double-digit spreads are always tricky in the NFL, and in Week 7 this year, there are a few that may leave you quit indecisive. Here are some picks from myself and Will Tondo that should get you through this Sunday with a bit of extra cash in your pocket.
Basel's ATS 2021: 21-12-1 (4-2 Week 6)
Tondo's ATS 2021: 14-19 (2-4 Week 6)
Basel's Week 7 Picks:
1 PM Games
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
This is as simple a pick as you're gonna get today. On nearly every level, Green Bay is the superior team to Washington, but the main reason the Packers will cover today is, of course, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers and his receiving corps have been on fire this season, and against the worst passing defense in the league, I see no reason why Rodgers shouldn't light up Washington in Lambeau today. Injuries on Green Bay's offensive line could give the Football Team a slight edge, but Rodgers famously quick release time should be able to nullify any injury setbacks.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
At this point in the season, all signs point to the Ravens taking home the 2021 AFC North Title. That being said, Joe Burrow will make sure they don't run away with it. In year two, Burrow seems to have gotten very comfortable behind center, and weapons like Jamarr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd have definitely expedited that process. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are still the better team, but they've played a few games this season a bit too close to the chest, and against a division rival, I think they'll come out on top by an uncomfortable margin.
4 PM Games
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders
While most of the attention regarding the Raiders' struggles has shifted to the front office, the wheels began falling off the wagon well before Gruden was fired. With a weak pass rush, and an incredibly inconsistent offense, Vegas is not well-equipped for a playoff run this year. That being said, neither is Philly. Where Vegas' offense in inconsistent, Philly's is inexperienced. Their run game has yet to do anything, and with rumors that Jalen Hurts could head to the bench, don't look for anything spectacular for Minshew or Flacco. Expect the Raiders to escape this one with a win in an abysmal game.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Not a homecoming, but still the game to watch this week as Matthew Stafford faces his old team for the first time as a Ram. Don't expect the 0-7 to keep it close straight up, but taking the Rams by two touchdowns and then some could make this game worth a watch. While the Lions have kept it close in their rough start, the loss of Frank Ragnow could give the Rams just enough to keep the Aaron-Donald led sack train running. Combine LA's defense with the Stafford-Kupp connection, and you've got a blowout in the making.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Another large spread, but another large talent gap between two teams. 5-1 against the spread, and 6-0 straight up, I'm starting to believe that Arizona is a legit contender for the NFC title this year. The Texans defense is basically non existent this year, allowing 30 points or more four times this season. Defensively, the Cardinals have handled teams a lot better than whatever Tyrod Taylor can throw at them, so don't expect much of a fight in this one.
Tondo's Week 7 Picks:
1 PM Games
New York Jets at New England Patriots
A battle of the ’21 rookies. Mac vs. Zach. A matchup that both teams hope will be for years to come. I am not a New England doubter, but I was very impressed with how they played against the Cowboys. The Patriots have a top-10 scoring defense that also allows the fifth-fewest red zone touchdowns in the NFL. Their secondary is shaky, but Zach Wilson is no Dak Prescott.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
On paper, both these teams are similar. A second year head coach that isn’t meeting expectations, a starting QB with a turnover issue, and star running backs out with injuries. The Panthers defense gave up a season worst 571 yards to the Vikings. Even with all of the injuries the Giants have had and currently have, I hate my heart on this one, I’ll ride with my team and the HOME team…Giants +3
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
What has been up with both of these teams? I feel they have underperformed or just aren’t playing to their previous season standards. However, they both won last week. The Chiefs returned to some form, but they were playing the Football Team. Hand up, recency bias here. The Titans made the Bills look minuscule, while the Chiefs continue mediocre play. However, numbers never lie. The past five games for the Titans, they are 4-1 ATS. The Chiefs in their last three? 0-3. I ride the momentum.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
When I landed this as one of my selections I was heated. The Falcons and the Dolphins are on my “no fly list”. Both have bitten me in the butt multiple times. The Dolphins lost it in London, and Tua doesn’t seem to be the answer. I am actually surprised they didn’t get a bye? Jet Lag game? The Falcons are coming off their post-London bye, and I am all for Cordarelle Patterson and Calvin Ridley eating up this defense. Give me the bird, Falcons -2.5.
4 PM Games
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bears held their own defensively against the Packers, but I call it division familiarity. At the end of the day, Aaron Rodgers does in fact own the Bears. I think the Bucs offense is much more lethal than the Packers, and while a a two touchdown spread is sooo deceiving, but Fields is no match for TB12.
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
This is a tough one. The Colts are getting in a grove. They are healthier, Wentz is getting comfortable, and they are 4-2 against the spread. However, all the signs are making me forget that I shouldn’t be fooled by the Colts of last week. They played the Texans. Gun to my head, I’ll take the 49ers -4, but I am not confident.