Sunday Spreads Season 3, Volume 14: A Wide Open Playoff Picture
Heading into this afternoon, we've got just two teams in this league eliminated from playoff contention; the 3-10 Chicago Bears and the 1-10-1 Houston Texans. Other than that, it's pretty wide open, meaning that on a day like today, most teams will be playing their butts off to get themselves one step closer to the postseason. Here are Tondo and I's picks for every game on what should be a pretty intense Sunday.
Basel's 2022 ATS: 41-45-2 (3-3 Last Week)
Tondo's 2022 ATS: 46-36-6 (3-4 Last Week)
Basel's Week 14 Picks
1 PM Games
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Very cruel for the books to make Detroit the home favorites here. Minnesota has scraped their way to 10-2, and Detroit is no longer a "sneaky good" team, having been upgraded to "solid" in my opinion after winning 4 of their last 5 games. Wanted to take them real bad here if the lines were better, but Vikings +1.5 is the smart bet. Minnesota has caught some huge defensive breaks in the fourth quarter this season, so use that as some mental security for your bet here.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Another "sneaky good" team that could earn an upgrade today, I think Mike Tomlin has finally figured out how to properly use one Kenneth Shane Pickett. He's been able to avoid a knack for turnovers in recent games, and while that is a low bar for a playoff team, this young Steelers squad should look to find success in simply being better than last week. Against a Ravens team that will likely be without Lamar Jackson, gimme the Steelers to cover in a close one.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy has finally shaken off their Super Bowl hangover, with the final metaphorical sip of Pedialyte coming in their win over the Kansas City Chiefs, their fourth straight. The Browns had their number earlier this season, and Cleveland's offense has adjusted to the addition of Deshaun Watson well, but the Bengals are rolling. Ja'Marr Chase is back, Burrow looks confident in the pocket, and Amari Cooper is questionable at best. Looks for Burrow to get his first win against the Browns and cover Bengals -5.5
4 PM Games
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is hot, Carolina is not. Don't overthink this one. Seahawks -4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
When you have to replace your quarterback with the most recent Mr. Irrelevant during a playoff push, the normal reaction would be to panic. However, as a solid performance last week from Brock Purdy worked in tandem with an already VERY talented offensive roster, I think the Niners are going to be alright. Maybe not good enough to make a deep playoff run, but probably enough to put up a fight against the Bucs. If anything, just dump the ball to McCaffrey and they'll be fine.
Sunday Night Football
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Two great, explosive offenses in this one should make for one of the best SNF matchups we've seen all year. However, LA's defense has killed the Chargers chances on way too many occasions for me to feel comfortable with them ATS. As long as Miami's o-line can prevent Khalil Mack from getting hot, I'll stick with Dolphins -3.5
Tondo's Week 14 Picks
1 PM Games
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
An AFC East game that somehow the Jets won the first go around. The Bills haven't covered their last 3 games as a double-digit favorite, including the loss against the Jets in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Jets last three losses were a one score game.The Bills are going to win this game outright, but 10 points? I don't know about that brother. Mike White has been wheeling and dealing, so I'll go Jets +10.
Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Texas Showdown, and it truly is a battle of David and Goliath. Despite winning one game, the Texans have covered the spread four times. I know the Cowboys just beat the Colts, but the Texans only have lost by that big of margin once this season. I like Texans +17 here. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans With Trevor Lawrence listed as questionable, it' safe to say this is the Titans game to lose. The Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road meetings with the Titans, as well as 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Jacksonville and Tennessee. Don't overthink this one. Titans -3.5 Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Eagles are on top of the world and the Giants are falling from the skies due to injuries. The Eagles will probably win this game, but the Giants, they got grit. Your New York Giants are 9-3 ATS, and despite the injuries, they still know how to get it done. Giants +7.5 4PM Games
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos After a snooze fest last week with Denver, I am going to need a high scoring affair to make this worthwhile. The Broncos offense is trash, and the Chiefs are coming off a loss, so they will definitely want to take it out against a division rival. Denver has put up just 10 points in 5 of its last 8 games, while the Chiefs put up an average of 29.2 per game. No brainer, Chiefs -9