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Welcome back to Sunday Spreads, a season-long column where Will Tondo and I break down our picks for every football game, every Sunday. While last week was a bit rough, and some of this week's spreads are a bit too close for comfort, we're still here ready to give you as much info as possible to help you make the most accurate pick as possible.
Basel's 2022 ATS: 6-7 (2-4 Week 2)
Tondo's 2022 ATS: 7-6-1 (3-3-1 Week 2)
Basel's Week 3 Picks
1 PM Games
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Bills are a tough team to bet against early on this season, as nearly everything is clicking for this team. Josh Allen is the easy front runner for MVP, Stefon Diggs' creative routes and explosiveness makes him the perfect receiving target, and the Von-Miller led defense continues to baffle opposing offensive lines. However, while they've got a clear path to the division, and possibly the Super Bowl, they've got another young, talented group right on their heels in the 2-0 Miami Dolphins. After a dominant win against the Pats in Week 1, and an insane comeback against the Ravens last week, Tua and company are here to prove that they've finally developed into an elite offense. With a litany of injuries on Buffalo's defense, look for the Dolphins receiving corps of Sammy Watkins, Jaylen Waddle, and Chase Edmonds on the ground to give Buffalo just enough trouble to force some Josh Allen heroics to win this one.
Dolphins +4.5
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Even with last week's loss to Miami, the Baltimore Ravens are still one of the best offensive teams in the league, mainly for how their dynamic style of play is a nightmare for unequipped defenses. I think it's safe to say that Lamar Jackson has shirked the "glorified running back" critique this season, as while he still can turn on the jets and make excellent running plays, he's got probably his best receiving corps yet of Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman to air the ball out to. Not only do I think the Patriots will be unable to handle this diverse skillset on defense, I don't think Mac Jones can even come close to matching what Jackson puts out on the field each week. Gimme the Ravens to take it by at least a field goal.
Ravens -2.5
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Oh, this is dangerous. Since Kirk Cousins is not playing in Primetime, I am a bit tempted to lay some money on Minnesota, but with the season that Detroit is having so far, how could you not want to lay a few more bucks on this team? With this fairly new Detroit regime, everything seems to be gelling nicely; Jared Goff has not turned the ball over, the defense has given opposing QBs a lot of trouble, and Dan Campbell has proven himself to be a competent playcaller. Most importantly, the 1-2 punch of D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown has just been way too explosive for any opposing defense to handle, and while I think Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook are just as efficient, I think the Lions have just enough to keep it close.
Lions +5.5
4 PM Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at LA Chargers
I would avoid this one if you can, but since we here are Sunday Spreads are committed to giving every pick possible, we push through. The biggest factor leading into this one is Justin Herbert, whose rib injury currently makes him a game time decision. Due to the uncertainty, this line has shifted like crazy, bouncing around from 7 to 3.5 all week. Should Herbert play, I think they should take this one pretty decisively, but if he doesn't, his absence combined with Keenan Allen's is a recipe for disaster against a surging Trevor Lawrence. Take the Chargers to win by a field goal and hope for a push at the worst.
Chargers -3
LA Rams at Arizona Cardinals
While they've still got a decent ways to go until they're a Super Bowl contender again, the Rams made major strides offensively against the Falcons last week, specifically in how Stafford was able to find guys like Allen Robinson a lot more comfortably. In an overtime duel against the Raiders, the Cards were sloppy, but were able to rely on Kyler Murray to pull out a victory. However, against an ever-improving LA defense, I do not think Murray will have the freedom to run the offense he likes to against guys like Aaron Donald or Jalen Ramsey, and they'll give him a very tough time in frequently collapsing pockets. As long as Stafford's elbow is as recovered as he claims it to be, look for the Rams to cover fairly easily.
Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Even though Tampa has not produced offensively like I thought they would so far this season, I'm going to have to take Brady and the Bucs at home with a one-point spread. While Green Bay managed to complete their signature Week 2 beatdown after putting up a Week 1 stinker, I don't think they'll be able to best the GOAT on his home turf. Sammy Watkins, currently the largest piece in this lackluster Green Bay receiving corps, is out, and I don't think relying on Aaron Jones to run the ball is enough for Green bay to pull out a win here. Take Tampa and the under here today.
Buccaneers -1
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
Another one point spread amongst two pretty irrelevant teams this season. There are plenty of better games in the afternoon slate, but if you must, throw a unit on Seahawks -1 for being the home team and forget about it.
Tondo's Week 3 Picks
1 PM Games
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
NFC South Matchup that could go either way. My gut wants to take the Saints, but I am looking at the data for this matchup. Last season, these two teams split the series, both winning and covering at home. The game is in Carolina. The Panthers defense has held their own the past two weeks, and the Saints have a few key members currently on the questionable side (Winston and Kamara primarily). All that said, I guess put me down for Panthers +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Last year, the spread would be double digits. If the Bengals have performed like they were slated to perform these past two weeks, the spread would be double digits. But alas, Cincy is getting pummeled, and the Jets are a bit of a surprise. I think the Bengals are in trouble. Could this be the week they fix that? Maybe, but I have to ride the Flacco magic as long as it takes me.
Jets +5.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Speaking of troublesome times, the Titans have fallen. Pro Bowler Taylor Lewan is out for the year, and the offense takes a massive blow at both making opportunities for Derick Henry, and protecting the pocket for Ryan Tannehill. They are coming off an absolute ass kicking from the Bills, while the Raiders are hoping to come back from the embarrassing loss they took from the Card's. The trio of Carr-Adams-Waller is too powerful in my opinion, and this should be a no brainer.
Raiders -1.5
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
The biggest, "does anyone care game" of the weekend. Sorry but not sorry. The Bears offense is lackluster. They surprised us all week one, but showed their true colors against Green Bay. Justin Fields hasn't even passed for more than 200 yards yet. Yikes. Houston, however, is making me think twice about them on both sides of the ball. This game will be a mighty fine under, but for the spread, give me Texans +3.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Probably the lock of the week. I am surprised the spread is so low. There isn't much to say about this game. The Chiefs are very good. The Colts are not. I hate this Indy team. They've burnt me twice too many times, and sadly, they will go 0-3 after taking on Mahomes.
Chiefs -5.5
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have the tools and talent, but they haven't proved anything the past two weeks. I don't think Hackitt is the guy. Meanwhile, Jimmy G is now the guy once again. Happened sooner than we all thought, but everyone has to stop doubting Garoppolo. He is a winner. This week, he takes the reins back and proves to not only San Fran, but the NFL, that he should have been the guy all along.
49ers -1.5
See you next week!
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