Updated: Nov 20, 2022
Image: LA Chargers
It's crunch time, friends. Yes, we are at the point in the season where teams are looking to clinch the playoffs or get some big wins against rivals, but more importantly, we're approaching the night before Thanksgiving. Need some extra cash to grab the tab at your hometown bar? We're here to help. Here are Will Tondo and I's picks for every game against the spread this Sunday.
Basel's 2022 ATS: 30-32-2 (2-4 last week)
Tondo's 2022 ATS: 31-27-6 (5-1 last week)
Basel's Week 11 Picks
1 PM Games
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts
Undefeated no longer, the high-soaring Eagles have been brought down back to Earth by the Commanders, but still have an NFC East title in their sights, before moving on to bigger and better things in the playoffs. The Colts are a team that Philly can bounce back against and get back on the right track, but not a team that they should pencil in a blowout against. With odds currently set at less than a touchdown, I think the stage is set perfectly for Indy's strong pass defense to give the Eagles a challenge, but for Sam Ehlinger and the offense to not capitalize on many opportunities paved for them. According to Statmuse, Jalen Hurts still has a passer rating of 106.4 under pressure this season, so Eagles -6.5 feels like the best bet here.
Washington Commanders at Houston Texans
Good job, Commanders! You took down the best team in the league, and are rewarded with a game against the worst to extend your win streak to two games! Taylor Heinicke continues to roll, and the Commanders have been a covering machine (with 1 push) for nearly two months now, so I do not want to be the guy to root against that streak before I can cash in on it.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants
While the Browns and the Bills keep head to Detroit to avoid playing in a blizzard, the Lions head to sunny East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the 7-2 New York Giants. Detroit has had quality spurts this season, including a great win last week against the Bears, but against a consistently competent team like the Giants, I think they'll struggle. New York has finally evolved into the multi-tool offense Big Blue fans have been waiting for for years, and Detroit's defense will simply be overwhelmed.
4 PM Games
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
If anyone in the NFL is getting shafted this season, it's the Broncos defense. With the second least Yards Allowed/Game, and the least Points Allowed/Game across the entire NFL in 2022, the Broncos are getting dragged down this season by one of the most disorganized offenses that I have seen in a long time. The Broncos 3 unsuccessful 4th quarter drives against the Titans last week were painful to watch, but the Raiders all season have been just as bad. I'll give Denver's defense the nod in this one, and take Broncos -2.5 in what will probably be the ugliest game of the week.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Hey, Minnesota. I just wanted to formally apologize for doubting you guys against Buffalo last week. Justin Jefferson is him, your defense is electric, and yes, I do "like that." However, I do not like this matchup against the Cowboys this week. Something has to crack with this Minnesota team eventually, and I think it happens this week. Even in a loss against the Packers last week, Dak and company looked really good, and as long as Minnesota doesn't force too many mistakes, I think they can take this one and silence what should be a rowdy Vikings crowd.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals really have not moved the needle for me this year, and the Steelers have been pretty unwatchable, but there are still a few fun matchups to watch in this one. Pittsburgh, with a top-10 offense against the rush this season, will be tested against Joe Mixon, who ripped apart Carolina for 4 touchdowns last week. Should Pittsburgh lock him down like they did in Week 1, look for Joe Burrow to win this one in the air, as the Steelers bottom-10 defense against the pass simply can't handle Boyd and Higgins.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Two primetime games in two weeks is pretty big for the Chiefs, and seeing how they kept it really close against the Titans last week, they'll look to get a more decisive dub against the Chargers. We know how this one should end (in a shootout), and in close ones like this, it comes down to injury. No Bosa (?), Allen, or Williams for LA gives KC the man advantage needed to take this one by at least a tuddy.
Tondo's Week 11 Picks
1 PM Games
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is (well, was) a covering machine. Atlanta has failed to cover 4 straight games after covering its first 6 straight. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is showing off both on the ground and in the air. I've gotta ride the hot hand right now, so Bears +3 for me.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
It was weird that Baker Mayfield was talking about Lamar Jackson's Mom, saying she was a tough one and intimidating. Not sure what the play was there, but it's clear that the Ravens are going to win this game outright, and as they should. However, Baltimore is 2-7 ATS and I think 13 points is lofty. Carolina could come out and absolutely dud this, but I think Panthers +13 is the play.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
An AFC East Matchup that is actually impactful in the standings. Who would have thought the Jets would boast a nice 6-3 record. However, I think it's a fraudulent record (sorry, Basel). The Patriots are at home, they are figuring things out, I think it's safe to say they win by a TD.
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
The Detroit Browns vs. the Michigan Bills is the matchup of the week after 6 feet of snow hit Buffalo making the game pivot to D-Town. It's good because both teams starting running backs are under six-feet so, not much of a rushing presence would have been there. All jokes aside, this is a no brainer play for the Bills. They lost last week, and need to win big here. Hammer Bills -8.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Now this is a tricky one. Both teams are just flat out bad. Loaded with talented pieces but absolutely no direction. I hate this line. 2.5 points is a rat race. While I think the Rams need to win this game, I like the Saints at home. Saints have a stronger offense, while the Rams defense can hold down the fort. To make matters worse for both teams, they are plagued with injuries. No Cooper Kupp, Cam Jordan, Mark Ingram, Lattimore, etc. The question is, who the hell covers? I'll go Saints -2.5.