Updated: Oct 2, 2022
Ugh. As if "No Noon Kickoffs" wasn't a valid enough cause, the NFL once again decides to throw a wrench in our weekend laziness chain and give us a game at 9:30 AM EST. How am I supposed to track my bet when the earliest I wake up on a Weekend is 11!? Regardless, here are Tondo and I's bets for every on American soil this Sunday.
Basel's 2022 ATS: 10-10 (4-3 Last Week)
Tondo's 2022 ATS: 8-10-1 (1-4-1 Last Week)
Basel's Week 4 Picks
1 PM Games
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Believe it or not, the Lions have actually served me quite well this season as far as the books go, helping me earn some cash in Week 1 and Week 3. I can't tell if the magic is within Dan Campbell, Jared Goff (probably not him), or Amon-Ra St. Brown, but this offense is clicking way more than I thought they would. As for Seattle, I can't say as much, as DK Metcalf is really struggling to put the team on his back while no one really steps up to help him. With St. Brown and De'Andre Swift both out today, Goff is severely limited in his weapons, but I think he'll have just enough to cover a slim spread for the 3rd week in a row with some help from Jamaal Williams.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
After stunning the Cleveland Browns with one of the top 2-minute drills in Jets history, Gang Green dropped an absolute stinker to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Now, with Zach Wilson retaking the helm from Joe Flacco, he'll need some time back out on the field before I can trust him to get a win against a team like Pittsburgh. Despite two consecutive losses against New England and Cleveland respectively, this Mitch Trubisky-led team kinda works, and as long as Najee Harris can get through this porous Jets defense, I think they will have a field day against the Jets. Combine that with the Jets' horrible history playing in Pittsburgh, and you've got your best case ever for taking Steelers -3.5.
LA Chargers at Houston Texans
Speaking of "No Noon Kickoffs," this one will begin right at Noon in Houston due to the NFL's national schedule, making me feel a bit lucky to be on East Coast for now. Regardless, this one should be a lot more clear cut than I expected going into this week. Though still not at 100% following his rib injury in Week 2, Justin Herbert looks once again to lead his offense past Davis Mills and the Texans, who despite a few decent moments early this season, are an overall pretty unremarkable offense. Even without Keenen Allen, Herbert still has stars in Ekeler and Everett to launch the ball to, and I just don't think Davis Mills and his weapons can get past guys like Khalil Mack, Kyle Van Noy, or Derwin James.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Debuting their new black jerseys today, the Washington Commanders will hope to trick the Dallas Cowboys by making them think they're playing the Steelers. However, once the realization sets in that it's Carson Wentz behind center and not Big Ben, they'll have a field day taking him down. The Commanders got rocked last week against Philly, and I don't expect much different against Dallas. Additionally, as the ground game gets more traction due to Dak's absence, look for Dallas to cover pretty easily.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Did anyone here expect the Eagles vs. Jags in Week 4 to be a marquee matchup this year? If you say yes, you're lying. Regardless, after Jacksonville's shellacking of the Chargers last week, they've proven that Doug Peterson has given Trevor Lawrence the guidance to be one of the most explosive offenses in this league, and going up against Jalen Hurts and company, we're in for a show today. However, I will give the Eagles a slight edge in this one, as they've scored at least 24 first half points two weeks in a row. This Jacksonville d-line will test Jalen Hurts, but I think he's finally gotten enough experience to know how to handle it.
4 PM Games
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
This is such a whack game to bet on for me, because I have had so much trouble trying to get a read on their ability in the first 3 weeks of the season. Kyler Murray puts the team on his back against the Raiders, then flops against the Rams. Baker flounders against Cleveland and the Giants, but then bounces back against an underrated Saints team. Will a win here help either team's case? I DON'T KNOW. If anything, take the Panthers 3-10 record ATS under Matt Rhule as the only sure sign to go Cardinals +1.
Sunday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
I can't really understand why Tampa is a 1 point favorite in this one. No disrespect to the GOAT, but I just don't think it makes sense for this team to come out on top in this one. Even with this supposed beef between Mahomes and the Kansas City OC, I think Pat has a good enough head on his shoulders, and a good enough receiving corps, to pull one out here. Even with Mike Evans back, Tampa just has not been the explosive team they were these past two years. Take Chiefs +1 and end your night on an easy win.
Tondo's Week 4 Picks
1 PM Games
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons
Here is one of those games that I have no idea what to do. The Browns will likely be without Myles Garrett after his scary car accident, and Jadeveon Clowney is questionable. Those defensive wholes will allow Mariota to run around and make some plays to London and Pitts. Then again, Patterson is having some knee issues, so the run game is a question mark. I wish the spread wasn’t a pick 'em. My gut says Atlanta, my mind says Cleveland. Flipping a coin on this one. Tails says Falcons +1.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
A potential AFC playoff matchup, quite possibly a Championship preview if these teams keep rolling like they are. What a game for Week 4. Josh Allen leads the league in passing (338) and completions (31.1) per game, while Lamar Jackson leads the league in TD passes (10) and QBR (119.4), while also being tied for 5th in rushing yards (243). Two MVP's dueling it out, this is must watch television. This is going to be a fireworks show. I think the Bills have to bounce back, and bounce back big.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Both had major bounce back weeks, and both gained their first W's, but I feel the Colts were more of a fluke. If Ryan Tannehill doesn't play well, fans will be calling for Malik Willis by Monday. Therefore, Titans +3.5
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
I always hate when the NYG ends up on my card, because you know I am going to take them. However, this is one that most people with ride with. The Giants are 2-1, and kept the Cowboys game competitive.. I don't want to hear anymore slander on Daniel Jones when Justin Fields doesn’t even have 250 passing yards. Giants -2.5.
(Basel's note: Sorry, man. If it makes you feel any better I promise I assign these at random)
4 PM Games
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Seeing Aaron Rodgers take down the Bucs, proves this game is a no brainer. The Pat's held their own against the Ravens, but now are without the price that was promised in Mac Jones. Sorry Brian Hoyer, today won't be your day… Packers -9.5