Sunday Spreads Vol. 11: Prop Bet Potpourri
Over the past few weeks, I've broken down prop bets by position. Considering the fact that I've covered the most exciting positions in terms of betting, I figured I'd give a mix for some of my favorite props for this Sunday. If you were patiently waiting for the kickers special, I am very sorry. If you hit me up on Twitter demanding that I dedicate Week 12 to the kickers, maybe I'll consider it. Until then, here's a prop bet for every major timeslot I suggest you check out, along with how I think the game will end against the spread.
1 PM Game- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
I normally wouldn't put up a prop bet for a second string quarterback getting the start, but when it's Taysom Hill, I had to indulge. With a healthy Drew Brees behind center, Atlanta's secondary unit would get absolutely eaten alive, but with the ultimate flex player getting the start today, it's really a toss-up. I don't expect Hill to be throwing the ball a lot, but I still think that New Orleans' offense will have a solid day as they shift their focus to an Alvin Kamara led ground game.
Call me crazy, but I think the books are lowballing Hill in the passing department. There's no doubt that he's going to hand it off to Kamara a lot, but I think he's going to want to prove his worth at the QB position, something he's done a few times in New Orleans already.
In terms of the game overall, I think it could be close. Despite starting off 0-5, Atlanta has been 3-1 since promoting Raheem Morris to the head coaching position. Matt Ryan is the key factor for Atlanta's success, as he is going to have to take the responsibility of making up for the defense's inability to handle Alvin Kamara. So far this season, Atlanta has had the least amount of rushing plays executed against them, due in large part to their weak secondary, but that's going to change this week.
Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara OVER 58.5 Yards (-134)
ATS: Falcons +3.5 (-110)
4:05 PM Game- New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Despite what their 2-7 record shows, I think there is a lot of promise in this young Chargers roster. Per the Chargers, starting QB Justin Herbert is off to an impressive rookie campaign with at least two touchdowns in his past six starts, the first rookie in NFL history to ever do so. In seven of his eight starts so far, Herbert has scored at least one passing and rushing touchdown. With these stats, Herbert is quickly rising in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.
However, no QB is great without his weapons, and Herbert has a major weapon in the form of Keenan Allen. In four home games so far this year, Allen is averaging 114 yards, the best of any receiver in this category. Against a Jets defense that is ranked 29th against the pass, I don't expect this to change. Take the over on Allen and the Chargers against the spread.
Prop Pick: Keenan Allen OVER 80.5 Yards (-112)
ATS: Chargers -10 (-106)
Sunday Night Football-Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
I gotta go Travis Kelce this week, for no other reason than he's the star of my dynasty fantasy team. So far this year, Kelce has averaged 84.5 yards per game, well over the line from MGM Sportsbook, which is currently set at 76.5. According to stats by Lineups.com, the Raiders are in the top 10 worst teams this year in terms of defending tight ends, giving up an average of 42.1 yards per game. While this may seem low in comparison to Kelce's prop, there's no arguing that Kelce is no normal tight end. I haven't seen a tight end be this much of an offensive focal point since prime Gronk, so expect a solid performance from him today.
Against the spread, the Raiders look good. We're going to see a pretty solid QB battle, as Derek Carr keeps this Vegas offense rolling with an average of 370 yards per game. Their best offensive performance actually came against the Chiefs in Week 5, as they recorded 490 yards while handing Kansas City their only loss of the season so far. We've seen the needle move back and forth within a touchdown all week, but I don't think Kansas City is looking to be swept by a divisional opponent this year. Take the Chief against the spread.
Prop Pick: Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 Yards (-106)
ATS: Chiefs -7 (-115)