Sunday Spreads Vol. 12: Post Thanksgiving Hangover
Thanksgiving was a pretty good day for this column. Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller put up some amazing numbers, and Andy Dalton had as mediocre of a game as I expected him too. Ezekiel Elliot continued to disappoint in both fantasy and for bettors, so I really should have seen that coming. However, we must push on, even as the pandemic begins to take it's biggest toll on the season so far. Steelers-Ravens, re-scheduled for today, has been pushed further back to Tuesday. The Broncos are playing without their first three choices for quarterback. The San Francisco 49ers might need to find a new home for the end of the season. As long as this week goes smoothly, here are prop bets for every major time slot, along with how those games will go against the spread.
1 PM- Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
You could honestly take any receiver to get the over against the Falcons this year, which is why I've frequently included them in this column. Second only to the Seahawks, the Falcons have been one of the worst passing defenses in the entire NFL. Most analysts gave them the benefit of the doubt early on due to the long list of injuries, but with a pretty much healthy secondary, there's no excuse. Atlanta has given up big yards to tight ends on several occasions this year, and considering how big of a target Darren Waller is on this year's Raiders Offense, expect him to hit his targets easily. He's been trending up, so get this one locked in as soon as you can.
In terms of the spread, the line is a lot closer than I thought it was going to be, due in large part probably to Matt Ryan's performance this season. However, I don't think their defense is going to be up to par, and I can see Vegas covering.
My Pick: Darren Waller OVER 57.5 Yards (-106)
ATS: Raiders -3 (-115)
4 PM-San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Like Zeke, I think Tom Brady has been having a bit rough this year. I won't go as far as saying that without Belichick he isn't the goat, but he's hit a bit of a midseason slump, which is exactly where you don't wanna be when taking on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. We could be seeing one of the better QB-matchups of the season, but I do think that Kansas City's defense, who ranks in the upper half of the league in terms of forcing turnovers, can get at least one pick out of Brady.
A 3.5 point spread is perfect four a game like this, as an interception could lead to this game being decided by just one score.
My Pick: Tom Brady OVER 0.5 interceptions thrown (-155)
ATS: Chiefs -3.5 (-106)
Sunday Night Football: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Mitch is back! After taking his spot on the bench in Week 3, Mitch Trubisky is set to replace Nick Foles at the starting QB position after Foles was unable to practice due to a hip injury. In a vacuum, benching the starting quarterback after winning his first two starts is a really odd move, but this is a really odd season, so it turned out to be the better move for the Bears. While it's exciting to see the young UNC alumnus return, this is not a game I'm sure many Bears fans are looking forward to. According to an interview with ESPN, Trubisky was shocked by his replacement, feeling like he left some unfinished business out on the field. His attempt at making a good impression will be tough, however, as he'll be playing under the shadow of the undisputed King of the NFC North; Aaron Rodgers. Mitch has a pretty decent record in terms of putting up decent yardage against Green Bay, and his total is set low enough for him to get back into the swing of being a starter.
In terms of the spread, I don't think a good performance from Trubisky will be enough for Chicago. The Packers are just a better team in every regard, and Aaron Rodgers is 16-7 all time against Chicago. Look for them to take this one in a double-digit victory.
My Pick: Mitch Trubisky UNDER 238.5 yards
ATS: Packers -9 (-110)