Sunday Spreads Vol. 7: Respectfully Receiving Ridiculous Results
Updated: Nov 1, 2020
Yes, I did use an alliteration generator to help me with the headline of this article.
After giving prop bets for all of the undefeated teams last week, I was really hoping we'd still have a few winless teams to do a nice dichotomous follow-up this week. However, the Giants and Falcons both got their first win last week, making the Jets the only 0-6 team. I'd say it hurts, but I think Jets fans have just gone numb at this point.
Anyway, here's a few prop bets for some notable wide receivers this week, along with how I think their games will end against the spread.
All times are in EST. All lines are according to the MGM Sportsbook. Check your book for the most recent odds.
Panthers at Saints- 1 PM
This pick is highly dependent on whether or not Christian McCaffrey will play, so keep an eye on the injury report before you lock in your bets. However, with McCaffrey currently listed as questionable, and the possibility of limited snaps if he plays, look for most of Carolina's yards to come through the air, specifically with Robby Anderson.
In McCaffrey's absence, Carolina's offense has run almost entirely through Anderson, leading to him putting up the second-most receiving yards this season. Anderson is clearly Teddy Bridgewater's favorite target, and while this may not bode well against a pretty decent Saints defense, I think Anderson could easily surpass 100 receiving yards this week.
In terms of how this game is going to go overall, it's actually a tougher call than many people may think. Aside from the Buccaneers, who continue to build a Super Bowl worthy team with late roster additions, the NFC South is pretty mediocre this year. New Orleans defense is eighth in total yards allowed this year, but their lack of pressure on quarterbacks has led to only five takeaways interspersed by teams marching down the field, relying on their Michael Thomas-less offense to pick up the slack. I expect the Saints to take this one, but only within one score. The line has been shifting in favor of the Panthers, so I wouldn't take anything less than a 6-point handicap.
My Pick: Robby Anderson OVER 70.5 yards (-121)
Against the Spread: Panthers +7 (-125)
Jaguars at Chargers-4:25 PM
If anything, this prop bet is going to give you a reason to watch this game, because otherwise there are none.
Despite only 23 yards in his last game against the Saints, Hunter Henry saw a lot of action in Week 5, with a touchdown within his 4 catches off of eight targets. While these numbers may seem low, it's important to remember that the Chargers are playing the Jags. The Jaguars have one of the worst passing defenses this season, and have completely crumbled following their Week 1 upset against the Colts. I would say you can bet the over on any of LA's receivers, but given how the Jags are one of the worst teams at defending tight ends, expect Henry to be the prime target.
In terms of the spread, look for the Chargers to cruise to a double-digit win and keep Jacksonville alive in the race for Trevor Lawrence.
My Pick: Hunter Henry OVER 4.5 receptions made (+130)
Against the Spread: Chargers -7.5 (-110)
Seahawks at Cardinals-Sunday Night Football
This is a pretty tough call to make, because like with the Chargers, I really think most of Seattle's top receiving targets can hit the over against Arizona. However, unlike LA, it's not due to defensive incompetence, but due to how amazing Russell Wilson has been behind center. If I have to pick one receiver for Seattle to hit the over, it has to be DK Metcalf.
Metcalf is having a breakout year in his second NFL season, receiving for at least 90 yards in every game so far this year. This week, Metcalf will likely matchup against Arizona's Dre Kirkpatrick, who might struggle in trying to keep up with Metcalf in the open field. There's something special brewing in this Metcalf-Wilson duo, and look for that bond to grow even stronger in Week 7.
In terms of the overall game, it's actually a pretty tough call. As much as I rave about this Seattle offense, their defense has not done much to help keep this team undefeated. Three of Seattle's wins have been within one score, while allowing the second most passing yards in the league this season. Deandre Hopkins is questionable for the Cardinals, but I still think Kyler Murray will make due with what he's got. Arizona is 2-0 Against the Spread as an underdog, so look for them to lose in a close one.
My Pick: Tyler Lockett OVER 65.5 yards (-134)
Against the Spread: Cardinals +3.5 (-115)