The Fight for Fourth

Man, we’re under a month from the season. We’re right there, and I cannot wait to get it started. We’ve hit the heart of season preview season, and as I’m putting mine together, I’ve come to a problem. How do I order teams 4-6?

I’ve got Creighton third, and although I do not feel confident considering I have a ton of concerns about their defense (Creighton last year was 15th in 2pt% defense, with one of the best rim protectors in the sport, and now has a rim protector from a team that finished 343rd in the country in 2pt% defense, and worst for any HM team), I trust coach McDermott and all of their outside shooting enough to hold that third spot for now.

But fourth through sixth for me, between Marquette, Georgetown and Providence is a struggle. I see arguments for all three of these teams. So here I’m going to collect my thoughts, a pros and cons style ranking, and use this to explain my thought process. And if you’re a fan of any one of these teams and have thoughts/think I’m off base with anything, or think I missed something, please let me know.

Let’s start this off with the Golden Eagles.

Marquette

Pros

Program Identity: We’ve seen a ton of questions, and believe me, I will be asking those too, but a lot of that can be answered by the buzzwords of “culture,” “identity,” “character,” and their system. These are cliches for a reason.

This team should be good defensively again. Chase Ross is a lockdown defender on the perimeter, and Zaide Lowery, Sean Jones, Nigel James and Adrien Stevens all profile as positive defenders in the backcourt. They should give ball handlers trouble, and that made their interior defense successful last year.

Ben Gold isn’t necessarily a great interior defender, and the loss of Stevie Mitchell will definitely hurt their perimeter defense, but they should possess the same identity that all Shaka Smart teams have.

Chase Ross: People are predicting Chase Ross to be a First Team All-Big East player this year, and deservedly so. Ross has seen his averages steadily creep up each season and has shot over 36% from three the past two seasons. He’s a defensive pest who can guard 1-4, is active at all times and generates turnovers. Ross lives at the free-throw line and has all the tools to take another step to become an elite player.

Ross shows immense potential and, in my mind, will carve out a role at the professional level, which always raises a team's profile.

Royce Parham: Parham saw his role increase in conference play, and his efficiency numbers followed. His counting stats remained fairly consistent (5PPG, 2.5RPG), but he shot it 4% better from the field and 5% better from three against better competition. Parham’s offensive rating in conference play was 118, up from the 109 across the entire season.

Parham should also be more comfortable playing his natural role as a four-man, rather than having to deal with bruising Big East big men. I think he’s poised for a breakout and could even be Marquette’s leading scorer come season’s end.

Nigel James: Nigel James rules. He’s a blur in transition and has multiple moves he can go to to break down a defender in the halfcourt. He’s a very willing passer and can finish at the rim in a variety of ways, in either hand and around contact with very good balance. He excels in the pick and roll, and his decision-making is typically excellent. On the defensive end, he’s a complete pest; he’s got quick hands and will cover you for 94 feet if asked.

His defense and playmaking ability will have James on the floor very quickly, and it would not surprise me at all if he’s Marquette’s most effective PG option come season's end.

Cons

No More Kam Jones: Kam Jones was an All-American last season who comfortably led the Marquette in both scoring and assists. His usage rate was the second-highest in the conference, and whenever Marquette needed a bucket, Jones answered. With the losses of Stevie Mitchell and David Joplin, Marquette loses their top three scorers from a season ago, and doesn’t replace them with any scoring pop.

Jones did show flashes (15pts vs Creighton in an excellent game), and will now be called upon for a lot more than he ever has been, while coming off an injury that can take away some of that eye-popping explosiveness he was known for. He’s unproven in Big East play and now has to show he can be one of the best guards in the conference.

The Cons of Relying on Development: Player development rules when it works. Ask an SJU fan how they feel about Zuby, UConn fans about Karaban/Ball, etc. But with Marquette electing not to hit the portal, it raises the question: What happens if the development doesn’t pan out?

Every year Shaka has been at Marquette, they’ve had NBA talent. Through development, or just hitting big on a transfer, they’ve had pros. But what happens when they don’t have that?

Other Big East teams have options and can cobble something together if they swing and miss. If Marquette swings and misses, it’ll look like a glaring hole.

Overall

Of these three teams, Marquette has the highest floor. The defense will be there, and the program identity isn’t changing. Maybe that floor is just barely missing out on the NCAA Tournament, but unlike Georgetown and Providence, they haven’t bottomed out recently.

But that ceiling is capped. Those teams have elite talent proven at their respective leagues. Highly touted guys that can take a step and look like legit pros, or dominant college players. Marquette has many 50-125 ranked recruits, who can absolutely win games, but don’t have “Top 15” upside like I think those teams do (albeit in very, very rare circumstances).

I think the range of outcomes is fairly limited here. Ceiling is a fringe Top 25 team, that’s consistent and annoying. And the floor is fairly high. Unlike Georgetown and PC, I can’t see Marquette falling below 6th. The program identity is strong, their formula has proven successful, and Shaka has yet to miss the Big Dance as a Golden Eagle.

Georgetown

Now, before I write about Georgetown, I don’t want to repeat myself too much, so here are my takeaways from their GLOBL Jam Tour.

Pros

KJ Lewis: I don’t understand how you can make three All-Big East teams and not have KJ Lewis there. I think he is the best player on any of these three teams, and here’s why:

His defense first. Arizona had him taking on the toughest assignments, hence why the 6’4” guard was checking 6’9” Cooper Flagg in the NCAA Tournament. Lewis averaged 2.1 stocks (steals + blocks) per game last season, and brings an identity to this Hoya team that they need.

Lewis (10.8PPG) is a relentless driver to the rim. Once he’s given a sliver of space, he can rise above defenders with a little tear drop, or go straight through guys and finish with force. He did struggle with his outside shot (18.8% 3PT), but he’s got better shooting mechanics than that would suggest (34.4% freshman year), and still made over 80% of his free throws.

He needs to show more of his offensive game, but people are forgetting that Lewis was ranked 19th by ESPN’s 2025 NBA Draft Big Board before last season.

Defense: This Hoyas team is going to defend. Prior to Thomas Sorber getting hurt, Georgetown ranked 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency on Bart Torvik. This team brought in plus defenders, including: KJ Lewis, Deshawn Harris-Smith, Jeremiah Williams, Isaiah Abraham and Vince Iwuchukwu.

This team is very long, tough and should have a really physical defensive identity. They should switch 1-4, which will make them very annoying to go against.

Malik Mack: Georgetown this year goes as far as Malik Mack can take them. Mack, after winning the Ivy League Rookie of the Year, struggled at times in his inaugural Hoya campaign. But there were also flashes of brilliance, including his 37-point performance in the Crown, and a forgotten 26-point performance in a win against Xavier.

Mack showed some growth as a facilitator when the Hoyas were fully healthy, but as more injuries came up, Mack needed to score more. With more depth in the backcourt, we can see Malik take that next step in his development and prove to be a legit top-tier Big East guard. We’ve seen these transfers take a year to develop (ex. Steven Ashworth) and Mack could be a prime example of that.

Cons

Offense: Jon Rothstein is on his annual tour across the country to pop into a practice and give some takes. What he said at Georgetown raised an eyebrow.

SIXTY FIVE POINTS! Now, is it hyperbole? Yes. He’s saying the defense is going to be awesome and the offense might struggle.

On this roster, aside from the oft-injured Langston Love, the Hoyas do not have one player who shot above 35% from three across their career. Malik Mack shot 35.5% last season, and the Hoyas will badly need him to hit outside shots. If Love isn’t healthy, sophomore Caleb Williams will have to become a reliable floor spacer for the Hoyas. Williams made a three in just 10 of his 29 games last season, and the Hoyas will need him to be a consistent outside threat to keep opposing defenses honest.

Big Men: The Hoyas have a Thomas Sorber-sized hole in the middle. They will be counting on St. John’s transfer Vince Iwuchukwu and redshirt freshman Julius Halaifonua down low. Iwuchukwu, the former five-star, averaged 5.5PPG at USC before transferring to St. John’s. Iwuchukwu is an impressive athlete for a big man and has had some internal buzz in Hoya Nation, but has yet to actualize his potential.

Backing him up is another former highly touted recruit, Julius Halaifonua. Halaifonua was ruled out for the season in November after just recovering from an injury over the summer. His strengths are his excellent passing ability and his jump shot for a 7’0” big man, but he does struggle both on the glass and with physicality on the interior.

For the time being, this frontcourt could be the least proven group in the league, considering Caleb Williams (sophomore), Isaiah Abraham (sophomore, didn’t play much), and redshirt freshmen Jayden Fort and Seal Diouf, all lack experience.

Overall

Ed Cooley has yet to build a winner at Georgetown. The pitch was always to give him two years, and this fanbase abided. Year Three is where Hoya fans need to see proof. Cooley built it at Providence, but is it just harder to build in this era, in DC, a sports town that already has all four major sports?

His group this year has a legitimate chance to compete in the Big East. This Hoyas team certainly has questions, but defense travels. They will give you a tough game night in, night out. Just how much can they score, and can they finally stay healthy? Ed Cooley has a team that can get as high as that third spot in the league, but if the bottom falls out, the Hoyas could be competing in the opening game of the Big East Tournament.

Providence

Friar, Friar, Friar. Providence made some headwaves in the transfer portal, but is this group ready to produce?

Pros

Big Three: Of all teams in this conversation, Providence has the best Big Three: Jason Edwards, Jaylin Sellers and Oswin Erhunmwunse.

Edwards is the most prominent name, and for good reason: He should be the odds-on favorite to lead the Big East in scoring. Edwards has averaged 18PPG across his career. He was on the Third Team All-SEC a season ago, in maybe the best SEC we’ve seen. He can erupt for 30 points on any given night, as TCU learned the hard way.

Jaylin Sellers is a transfer I was very high on coming from UCF. He was a large reason they overperformed in 2024, after averaging 15.9PPG. Sellers is a monster in transition; he thrives in open space and has shot 37% from beyond the arc in his college career. With his frame, strength and athleticism, you can make him into a very good defensive player. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can sneak his way onto the All-Big East Third Team.

We know what we are getting out of those two. The question becomes, what can we get out of Oswin Erhunmwunse? Oswin showed flashes last year as one of the most athletic bigs in this league, and showed he can be a very formidable defender on the interior. Oswin was second in the Big East in block rate last season, and averaged over two blocks a game in conference play in his initial campaign. Oswin was also phenomenal on the offensive glass, finishing second in the league again in offensive rebounding rate.

These three players will take this Providence roster about as far as they possibly can. They’ve all seen some individual success, but it’s time for them to come together and build a winner.

Daquan Davis: I have questions with some of Kim’s comments to the media this offseason (more later), but I think Daquan Davis is destined to be a much more impactful piece than people are talking about.

Davis started for Florida State last season and was put in a tough spot. He averaged 2.7 assists per game in conference play, to just 1.6 turnovers. He was called upon to do a lot in a really disorganized system (Coach Hamilton retired midseason), and he played about as well as you could ask.

Davis is not the best shooter, but he’s a very aggressive point of attack defender (1.1 SPG, .6 BPG), and is a really impressive facilitator. I think his skill set fits very well on this Providence team, and is the piece they are missing. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Davis is starting at PG for this Friars squad come January.

Cons

Coaching: Listen, this feels like a lazy talking point, but it's lazy for a reason. And it ties in to many smaller criticisms with this team.

Kim English has mentioned at length that he wants to have a very high rim and three rate. Awesome. The philosophy to generate those opportunities I have questions with, particularly the pace of play. Kim English says he wants to play fast, in a pace and space system. But, English’s teams across his four years of coaching have only once finished Top-220 in tempo (his first year at PC).

English also said in preseason media that Corey Floyd is his Point Guard. The Friars were the worst in the league at turnover rate (19.5% in conference play), and finished with the second-worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the league, only ahead of Seton Hall. Yet, your solution was on the roster the whole time? Are we sure?

I’m very high on Daquan Davis, as I mentioned above. But what happens when he’s off the floor? Can Floyd step up and be that guy? Until I see it in practice, I have questions.

English is a young coach, and should be given time to put things together, but for an outsider, it’s hard for me to project a Kim English team to outperform Shaka Smart. I need to see it to believe it, and where I’m very confident they have the talent to do so, I need to see it in practice first.

Overall

I have some smaller questions with this team, with the depth and defense aside from Oswin (who could be in the running for conference DPOY), as none of those guys are proven plus defenders. And some of the surrounding pieces have to prove they can be on a winning CBB team, too, they're missing that winning culture piece.

But the talent on this roster is clear. The Big Three compete with just about anybody nationally, so long as Oswin takes the jump that I project him to. Not enough people are talking about how good Jaylin Sellers is, and Jason Edwards gets off the bus and has already scored 15 points.

I’ve still got questions here. The upside is clearly there, and I’d be quick to move them up during the season, but I just need to see it first.

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I put these teams in the order I have them (Marquette 4, Georgetown 5, PC sixth), but you could put them in any order and I wouldn’t argue with you. Frankly, you could throw Creighton into this group too, but I just trust McDermott and that offense, even if they’ll struggle defensively.