The Week 6 AP Poll is a Kingmaker. Can I Crown a Team Early?

Image: NCAA

Yesterday's release of the AP Men's Basketball Top 25 came with more fanfare than usual. As the sixth poll of the season was released, college hoops fans around the country flocked to the rankings to check who made the top 12. An arbitrary achievement for the casual fan, dedicated CBB statheads know the mysterious power that this particular poll holds; since the 2003-04 season, every national champion has been ranked in the top 12 of their respective season’s Week 6 AP Poll.

Is a spot in this week’s top 12 all you need to succeed in college basketball, or are there other underlying traits that previous national champions share after roughly one month of play? I took a deeper look at several data points to try and whittle this year’s Field of 12 down to 1. 

Some Notes on My Data Points:

When trying to make my early pick for national champion, I looked at roughly 9 traits to see what the last 21 tourney-winning teams share. However, a few of these data points just did not do enough to separate any teams from this year's pack. Below is a list of some categories I either did not use or only used with specific caveats:

• NET Rankings: With the overhaul of the RPI into what is now the NET in 2018, I decided to avoid these metrics entirely in favor of Kenpom.

• Kenpom before 2011: For teams that won the Natty between 2012-2025, I will present their Kenpom data from the specific day that the Week 6 AP Poll released that season. For teams between 2004-2011, there is no day-to-day Kenpom data available, so I will note their end-of-season statistics only.

• If relevant for each data point, I will note both the mean and average among previous champs.

With that out of the way, let’s pick a champ!

The Field:

Round 1: Previous Tournament Performance

2004-2025 Mean Previous Tournament Finish: Second Round

2004-2025 Average Previous Tournament Finish: Sweet 16

From 2004 to 2025, only two national champions missed the tournament the year prior (2011 UConn and 2015 UConn), while the 2021 Baylor Bears did not have a tournament to make or miss. Every team in this year’s top 12 made the 2025 Tournament, with Louisville being the only squad not to advance past the first round. On a similar note, they’re the first team cut from my field.

Round 2: Week 6 AP Ranking 

2004-2025 Mean: 5

2004-2025 Average: 4.95

Whoever popularized this stat is clearly a fan of Villanova. When looking at the specific rankings for each national champion from 2004 to 2005, the Wildcats are the only team that placed outside of the top 10 in their respective Week 6 poll. However, with 11 of the last 21 champs placing within the top 5, I’m going to call that the sweet spot, eliminating the following schools from title contention:

• Purdue (6th)

• Houston (7th)

• Gonzaga (8th)

• Michigan State (9th)

• BYU (10th)

• Alabama (12th)

Round 3: Kenpom

2004-2011 Final KP NET: 1 (Mean), 2.25 (Average)

2004-2011 Final KP OFF: 2 (Mean), 4.75 (Average)

2004-2011 Final KP DEF: 6.5 (Mean), 8.75 (Average)

2012-2025 Day-of-Poll KP NET: 3 (Mean), 5.31 (Average)

2012-2025 Day-of-Poll KP OFF: 5 (Mean), 10 (Average)

2012-2015 Day-of-Poll KP DEF: 7 (Mean), 12.38 (Average)

That’s a lot of numbers, but please don’t let it intimidate you. All you have to know is that one month in, a title contender should roughly be a top 5 team in the NET ratings and top 10 team both offensively and defensively in the eyes of Mr. Pomeroy. Using the NET ratings first, we can eliminate 2 of the 5 remaining squads:

• Duke (7th in KP NET on 12/8/25)

• UConn (7th in KP NET on 12/8/25)

Offensively, Michigan was ranked 11th by Kenpom on December 8th, which leaves the following schools as my finalists:

• Arizona (12/8 KP Ratings: 5th NET, 9th Offense, 10th Defense)

• Iowa State (12/8 KP Ratings: 2nd NET, 6th Offense, 2nd Defense)

The Final Decision

Following three rounds of filtration, I’m down to two elite Big 12 squads. Considering how close these two schools match up (Kenpom has their March 2nd meeting in favor of Arizona by a point), I couldn’t possibly make a pick between them this early in the season, right?

WRONG! You didn’t read this far for me to back out now, so give me the IOWA STATE CYCLONES as my December pick for 2026 National Champion. Behind senior forward Joshua Johnson (18.2 PPG), this ISU team has passed every major test this season with flying colors, most notably holding Purdue to 58 points in West Lafayette last week. 

Although I'm splitting hairs at this point, I'm totally fine giving the Cyclones a gentle nod. As we move further into the season, I'll check back in on Iowa State to see how they can hit similar milestones of national champions past.