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I’m not the sharpest guy in the MMA world. In fact, I’m about as sharp as a spork. But, we’re here to have fun, and what better thing to do than to bet on some fights? We’re watching fights every weekend, come on, let’s have some bucks on it. Let’s enjoy the ride. Here’s what I’m rocking with.
Khaos Williams KO
It depends on what the number you get is, but when I look at this fight, Bedoya is a regional scene guy who throws wild strikes. He’s going to be in your face, but I don’t think he’s defensively sound at all. And Khaos has the death touch. The dude hits like a truck. He carries his power through all three rounds and has shown significant improvements in his last few fights. He’s been off for nearly a year and at age 29 that’s not a bad thing. He lost a very close fight to Randy Brown and I think Bedoya is a steep step down in competition. I think Khaos touches him and ends this fight early.
Drew Dober KO
Drew Dober might just have the best chin in the UFC. The dude gets hit and just keeps walking forward. The way to beat Drew Dober is to take him down and out-grapple him. Frevola actually has the ability to grapple him, but I think this is going to be a firefight. I think the Steamrolla is going to walk forward and throw down with Dober. If he wants to take Dober down, I think Dober will be able to get up and put a pace on Frevola. I don’t love Frevola’s chin either, I think Dober will be able to land and land with power and finish Frevola. Should be a very fun fight.
Smith/Porter fight Ends R1
Fight ends R1/Fight doesn’t start round two or whatever you can get. Braxton Smith just walks forward and throws bombs. All of his fights have ended in the first round and all have ended by KO. I don’t think he’s UFC caliber, but they need bodies and Porter has been knocked out in the first round twice in his UFC tenure. On the other hand, if Porter can get a takedown or really even establishes cage control, I think Smith will be an absolute fish out of water. I think this fight ends quickly and I think Porter gets the job done, but just to keep the play safer, we’ll add in Smith’s best (and maybe only) win condition.
Joseph Holmes
Man, putting your hard-earned money on someone who lost to Jamie Pickett isn’t the best thing to do, but I don’t think Riberio should be -175 over anyone in the UFC. I think Holmes will have the wrestling/grappling advantage and puts that to work. Ribeiro will have a fun walkout, so he’s definitely the easier guy to root for, but I like Uglyman Joe in this spot.
Parlay: Evloev, Khaos, Dober
Three guys I’m fairly confident in. Evloev has the advantage everywhere (the number is getting a little too wide though, I got it at -750 for full disclosure), Khaos is someone I think dominates his fight and I think this spot is great for Dober.
Kron Gracie By Submission
The earth isn’t flat, but a guy with the last name Gracie against a guy with real takedown issues is an auto bet. Gracie’s grappling is legit. Not particularly confident he gets the win, I actually tend to think he loses, but if he wins it’s probably by sub, so at +240 it gets a sprinkle.
Belal Muhammad +5.5
I think Muhammad wins straight up, but in a five-round fight I don’t see him getting finished, and I don’t see one judge scoring the fight 4-1 to Burns. I think Belal is good enough on the ground to survive and I think he will win the later rounds in this fight. I tend to think he wins this fight, it’s very competitive, but the five-round short-notice nature favors the guy with excellent cardio, and that’s Belal. I could see Burns winning a decision, but I don't think he wins in dominant fashion, and to cover the -5.5 spread he'd have to dominate Belal.
Demetrious Johnson
I know it’s ONE Championship, but let’s not doubt greatness. Mighty Mouse as a -140/150 or whatever you can get him at is always a decent play. I know he's at a huge size disadvantage, but the dude is just a winner, and I'm confident he gets the job done.
My Card:
Mighty Mouse -140, bet 2.1 to win 1.5 and -150, bet 1.25 to win .83 (was parlayed with Santos)
Evoev+Dober+Khaos parlay bet 2U at +119 (might add more)
Evloev+Muhammad +5.5 at -128 to win 1U
FDSR2 Smith/Porter bet 1.8 to win 1.5
Holmes bet 1 to win 1.5
Holmes ITD bet .5 to win 1.25
Gracie B-S: bet .375U to win .9U
Khaos KO (used DK SGP) bet 2.5 to win 2
Khaos, KO, Under 4.5min: bet .625U to win 1.35
Dober, KO, Over 1.5min (DK SGP) bet 1U to win 1.1U
