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Washington Commanders Football 2023 Season Preview: Overview, Expectations, Predictions
Overview:
What an offseason for the Washington Commanders. The franchise enters the 2023-24 season with a new owner in Josh Harris, taking over for the…controversial Dan Snyder, who purchased the team in 1999.
In 1999, Snyder bought the team for $800 million. In July 2023, Harris closed on a deal to purchase the franchise for just over $6 billion, the most expensive sports team sale in history.
“To Commanders fans everywhere, our promise is simple: we will do the work, create the culture and make the investment needed to deliver for this team and for Washington,” Harris said in a statement.
Josh Harris purchased the Commanders this Summer for just over $6 billion (Photo: Forbes)
With the sale has come the support. The Washington community showed up to training camp days in waves unlike anything seen in recent memory.
On the field, the team went 3-0 in the preseason and second year quarterback Sam Howell is taking over the starting job for the first time, and he’s looked great.
For a franchise that has been on the wrong side of headlines for years, a new owner has taken all of the pressure off the 2023 team to perform. What happens on the field is less important than what the front office is looking to build long term.
They are, in a way, starting from scratch. And maybe that’s a good thing.
Over the history of Dan Snyder’s 23 year ownership, Washington went 1-3 in home playoff games, never advancing past the Divisional round and never finishing in the top two of the NFC.
The lone playoff win came in Snyder’s first year as owner, in the 1999 Wildcard.
In fact, the franchise has not won a playoff game since 2005, with four straight playoff appearances ending in the Wildcard round.
It’s up to Harris as owner, Ron Rivera as head coach and Quarterback Sam Howell in his first year as the starter to finally turn things around and bring the team back to a place it hasn’t been in decades.
Nuts & Bolts:
Head Coach: Ron Rivera - 4th season (22-27-1 overall)
Franchise Super Bowls: 3 (1982, 1987, 1991)
NFC Championships: 5 (1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1991)
2022 Record: 8-8-1, 4th in NFC East
2023 Schedule: HERE
Offensive Preview:
The Commanders ranked 20th in total offense in the league last year, and scored the 8th fewest points of any team in the NFL.
These two bottom-third rankings have prompted a switch at quarterback for Head Coach Ron Rivera and company.
Second year Quarterback Sam Howell enters 2023 as the starter for Washington.
Quarterback Sam Howell won his only game last season, a Week 18 victory over Dallas (Photo: PFF)
In his rookie season out of North Carolina, Howell started just one game, a meaningless Week 18 game against Dallas. In the game, Howell went 11/19 for 169 yards and a touchdown along with an interception while rushing for 35 yards and another score.
The Commanders beat Dallas in a surprising 26-6 thrashing, laying a foundation for Howell and a confidence boost for the offense heading into this season.
There’s a new offensive coordinator in Washington as well. Eric Bienemy has taken over play calling duties after spending every season since 2013 under Andy Reid in Kansas City.
The national media has its eyes on Bienemy to see how things will go with a quarterback besides Patrick Mahomes. It was just preseason, but in the lone Commanders game where most starters were out there, Washington put up 17 points in the first half while Howell threw for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
Bienemy has a lot of toys to play with in the offense.
On the ground, Washington had the 12th best rushing offense in the league a season ago. With second year back Brian Robinson paired with veteran Antonio Gibson, the Commanders should boast an impressive one-two punch in the ground game.
Through the air, Howell has a ton of weapons to throw to. Fifth year receiver Terry McLaurin has never recorded fewer than 919 yards receiving and is coming off his best season with 1,191 yards. He’s played all 17 games for Washington in back-to-back seasons and has established himself as Mr. Consistency for the passing game. However, he’s dealing with a nagging toe injury from the preseason and is currently listed as day-to-day.
Beyond McLaurin, there is a ton of hype around second year receiver Jahan Dotson. In just 12 games, the rookie out of Penn State scored 7 touchdowns while racking up 523 yards on 35 receptions.
If McLaurin stays consistent the way he has in his career while Dotson takes a jump in his second season, and complementary pieces such as Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and tight end Logan Thomas take form, the passing game will be one of the more lethal in the NFC East, assuming Howell pans out the way many think he can.
A year ago, many of Washington’s losses were because the offense was inept. In 2023, that tune may be changing with Bienemy calling the plays and Howell running the show.
Defensive Preview:
Washington allowed the 7th fewest points in the NFL in 2022, boasting the 4th best passing defense and the 11th best rushing defense.
Where the team struggled was forcing turnovers. The Commanders forced just 18 of them last season, which is the 26th best mark in the league, forcing just 9 interceptions and recovering 9 fumbles throughout the year.
Despite the lack of turnover production, the Commanders were rarely out of games due to the strong defense.
In fact, three of Washington’s eight wins in 2022 came without the team eclipsing 20 points, which goes to show how important the defense really is on this team.
The biggest loss in personnel from 2022 to 2023 is linebacker Cole Holcomb, who joined up with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the offseason.
Holcomb, however, played in just seven games a season ago, so the transition without him shouldn’t be too significant.
The Commanders defensive line is one of the best in the NFL (Photo: USAToday)
What the Commanders bring to the table is one of the best defensive lines in football. The combination of Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Chase Young, and Daron Payne is dominant when healthy. When the Commanders can force opponents to obvious passing situations where the front four can pin their ears back and rush the quarterback, there’s maybe no better group in the NFL.
The problem last season besides lack of forced turnovers, however, was bringing the quarterback down.
Washington ranked 4th in QB pressures, which is a tremendous recipe for success. However, that same group ranked 12th in sacks. They’re getting close, but not getting opposing quarterbacks on the ground.
Unlike 2022, the top personnel group of the Commanders defense enters the season fully healthy.
If the defense can stay consistent like it did in 2022, and finally stay healthy for a season, while continuing to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing a few more turnovers, they’ll without question be one of the more imposing defensive units across the league.
Season Prediction:
The Commanders are in what I would call the NFL’s second toughest division (AFC North) and the toughest in the NFC.
In 2023, they’ll play ten games against 2022 playoff teams, including all six divisional games. That doesn’t include road games to Denver, which now has Sean Payton, New England against Bill Bellichick, or New York to take on the vastly improved Jets.
I believe that this Commanders team will be head and shoulders better than the 2022 team. The offense under Howell will take a big step forward while the defense will at the very least put up similar numbers to last year.
The problem is the schedule. For example, I’m not sure the Commanders are going to win any games between Week 8 and Week 13.
Just in the division, they’ve got the defending NFC Champion Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best rosters in the league, and the New York Giants, which enter year two under Head Coach Brian Daboll with all the momentum after exceeding expectations last year.
In a year where Ron Rivera must produce to keep his job, I’m not sure where the wins are when looking at the schedule.
I have the Commanders improving across the board statistically, but not finding consistency in the win column and finishing 8-9 overall and on the outside of the NFC playoff picture.
Game-by-Game Prediction: 8-9 overall (3-3, 3rd NFC East)
Week 1 - vs. Arizona - W
Week 2 - @ Denver - L
Week 3 - vs. Buffalo - W
Week 4 - @ Philadelphia - L
Week 5 - vs. Chicago (Thursday Night Football) - W
Week 6 - @ Atlanta - L
Week 7 - @ New York Giants - W
Week 8 - vs. Philadelphia - L
Week 9 - @ New England - W
Week 10 - @ Seattle - L
Week 11 - vs. New York Giants - W
Week 12 - @ Dallas (Thanksgiving) - L
Week 13 - vs. Miami - L
Week 14 - Bye
Week 15 - @ Los Angeles Rams - W
Week 16 - @ New York Jets - L
Week 17 - vs. San Francisco - L
Week 18 - vs. Dallas - W