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So, that was a game that happened. It most certainly did. Anyways, here are some thoughts and what I took away from this one.
Butler Needs More at PG:
Eric Hunter had another awful performance. In their two Big East wins, Hunter has been great. In the five losses, he’s been bad. He’s a guy that clearly needs some help in the backcourt and can’t run the show alone.
Simas Lukosius, Chuck Harris and Myles Tate are capable of giving him some help. Let them! Give some more guys minutes and let Hunter open up his game a bit. He was a low-volume guy with Purdue, that’s the role he plays well. He’s not going to be the leading scorer in many games, he’s not a ball-dominant guard.
Let him play his game, get the ball out of his hands, let him rest for some game time and put the ball in the hands of the other capable guards. Hunter can’t do it alone. It’s time for him to either come off the bench, play fewer minutes, or get fewer leading touches at guard. Get him back to the role he’s more used to, and let guys let Chuck Harris and Simas Lukosius get back into roles they are more suited for.
As a leading man getting many more touches, Hunter has been much less efficient than he was at Purdue. There has to be a balance between him having a bigger role, and being able to still be effective.
Joel Soriano is an All-Conference Talent
In my preview, I highlighted the battle between Manny Bates and Joel Soriano as something that should be fun and competitive. It wasn’t. Soriano absolutely dominated Bates. It was not a competition. Soriano had more points in the first 2:39 than Bates did in the entire game.
Man, he was incredible. Absolutely incredible. This is his 15th double-double in 18 games, which leads the entire country! He’s a force to be reckoned with down low and someone who has been absolutely incredible for this St. John’s team.
I have absolutely no idea where they’d be without him. He’s led the Johnnies in scoring in nine of their 18 over the course of this season, including six of their seven Big East games. He has led them in rebounding in 16 of their 18 games, too.
He’s someone that needs to get on everyone’s radar as an All-Big East caliber talent. The Big East has some incredible big men, but Soriano is amongst the elite.
Another Big Butler Loss
This was the first game where Butler got down big in the first half and I liked their effort. That dropped off a cliff in the second half. Losing is incredibly hard, especially consistently losing big, so I get it.
When I played low-level AAU ball, my team was horrific. We always lost. We won very few games. I’m a pitiful basketball player, I stink. But, when my coach would say “we’ve got one guy who’s willing to give a hard foul and dive for a loose ball, and that’s little Mike DeRosa,” that was something I took pride in.
This team doesn’t have someone like that. Or at least, that guy doesn’t play enough. They all seem to get down on themselves when they get down big. To use an analogy much more prevalent in the world of combat sports “they’re a great hammer, but a terrible nail.”
What that means is basically, you can ride with a lead and control a game (K-State), but once the other team punches back (all other big games), you shell up and accept defeat. To quote Mike Tyson “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth,” and I don’t think this team deals with that adversity well, at all.
Butler is a school known for being that lovable underdog. Being the school that doesn’t back down from a challenge. I don’t know why this group backs down from those challenges. I don’t know why they get scared.
I’ve watched these guys battle. I’ve watched Eric Hunter lead multiple Purdue comebacks. I’ve seen Ali Ali go toe-to-toe with Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez for 40 minutes. Some of these guys were on the roster for the team that went to war with Xavier in the Big East Tournament last year.
Jalen Thomas was a part of a Georgia State team that had everybody get hurt early in the season. Everybody. They started their season 4-1, before losing eight of their next ten. Their only two wins came against Non-D1 opponents. They were 6-9 (0-5 in the Sun Belt). They then battled back, winning gritty game after gritty game, and won their league tournament at 18-10. They got screwed by the NCAA Tournament Committee which failed to recognize their injury-laden start to the season and completely ignored their responsibilities. Still, they competed with the #1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs for 30 minutes, and actually had the lead with 13 minutes remaining, before the officials fouled all of their guys out.
Still, these guys have all been a part of teams that have been knocked down and gotten back up. I don’t know why this group seems incapable, but that’s what it seems like, from the outside looking in.
Other Notes:
AJ Storr and Rafael Pinzon are some really nice building blocks for the future. Storr is a guy who I loved watching some tape in the offseason. He’s got decent size for a 2 guard and an absolutely gorgeous shot. He’s shooting almost 46% from three on a St. John’s team that desperately needs shooters. He’s nowhere near a finished product yet, too. He’s going to be an excellent college basketball player.
As for Pinzon, he came into this game and did exactly what was needed. He didn’t force anything, he was calm and did exactly what was asked of him. He’s the prototypical role player who can provide a spark off the bench, and could even do more when he matures as a basketball player.
I don’t think Anderson returns as the Head Coach of St. John’s, with no inside information, that's just my impression. But, for the next coach, there are pieces here to build off of and to immediately make competitive.
Lastly, here’s what might be considered a hot take for Big East Fans. Be prepared.
I don’t think Coach Matta is doing all that well with this group. In fact, I'd say he's clearly underperforming. There, I said it. Argue with me on the internet, I accept all opposing takes.
I think this group is much more talented than these results say. I thought the game plan against Penn State was pretty rough. In Atlantis, 2/3 losses, with the only win being against a BYU team that KenPom ranks at 75 (and I think is much worse), isn’t a successful trip. But you can point to injuries and that’s fair.
The games against legit opposition have been bad. Seton Hall shouldn’t beat anyone that badly. Seton Hall hadn’t beaten anyone by 25 since a November win over Wagner. St. John’s hasn’t won by 16+ in over a month. Providence’s 20-point win is their biggest win over any high-major opponent. Heck, Columbia and Merrimack played Providence tougher than Butler did. Creighton was on a six-game losing streak and finally got their most important player back from injury, before curb-stomping Butler and gaining momentum. Since beating Butler, UConn hasn’t sniffed a 20+ point win against anyone. Even Georgetown.
I’ve been saving this one for a while, I thought the D.C. sports fan in me was being too pessimistic. But, I think it’s time this take enters the aether. The rotation is far too short if guys aren’t playing at the top of their game, the two-big starting lineup was a poor choice, the team seemed woefully unprepared in multiple games (especially Providence), they have seemingly regressed since the Kansas State game and are playing some awful basketball. You can't in good conscience blame this all on the players. You just can't.
Yes, Matt, you caught me. I was trying to hide it, but I couldn't get through you! But also whack-a-mole basketball mode is maybe the worst thing I've ever tweeted. What could that possibly mean?
Using Barttorvik.com’s feature where you can see how efficient a team has been since any date, since the start of Big East play, on 12/17/22, Butler ranks 220th in the country. That’s atrocious. But, it gets worse. Their offense ranks 310th. Yes, three hundred and tenth in the country. The only high-major team that’s worse offensively in this stretch is Oregon State. So yes, 2-win Louisville, 3-win Cal, 5-win Georgetown, and more have all been better offensively in this stretch than Butler.
Remember the team that Butler beat in their season opener? They beat the New Orleans Privateers by 36 points. That was a pretty bad New Orleans team, right? Well, you’ll never guess who ranks 219th in adjusted offensive efficiency in that stretch, almost 100 spots better than the Butler Bulldogs. That’s right, it’s New Orleans.
They shoot far too many long twos, never attack the basket and can’t generate open looks. During this exact stretch last year, Butler’s offense ranked 222nd. That offense was awful, and somehow they’re even worse now? With more talented players, the underclassmen getting another year of work in, with a new system, they’re that much worse? That’s insane. It doesn’t make sense.
Now, if you’re takeaway from this was “Michael thinks Coach Matta needs to be fired, and everyone on this team sucks,” you're 100% wrong. That would be an insane take halfway through year one. I’m telling you that this team is underperforming and absolutely needs some new energy. I’m telling you what’s happening now isn’t working. But that doesn’t mean it can’t, or won't, get better.
See you Friday for Villanova.
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