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Man, conference season is here, and I’m so excited. So naturally, to open up the Big East slate is the game that I don’t know if I love or dread more than normal. Last year was dread, but this year I’m pretty excited.
Tip Time: 6:30
Channel: FS1
Venue: Historic Hinkle Fieldhouse
Spread: Butler -10.5
For context to anyone who doesn’t know, I write here for Butler and go to school there, but grew up a HUGE Georgetown fan, been going to games since I was young. Like really young. I was born into this team, and even interned down there for a couple of summers, and took a summer program there. I'm not sitting here writing about college basketball, or heck probably attending Butler University without Georgetown Hoops. Love these teams and schools, and this game should be a fun one.
As this game comes up, I will take a lot of time to talk about how I see this Hoyas team, (this is a fairly rare-ish opportunity I have to write about this team in long form, even if I tweet about them a ton), before getting into analysis for this specific game.
But first, if you are here for the Butler-focused analysis, I spent multiple days (like all day days) assembling this article (which will be at the end of the article, too) in which I took an in-depth look at the film from two of their biggest games, so please check that out if you are interested in analysis on this Butler team. It might just be the most comprehensive thing I get to before the end of the season and took so much time, so if you have any interest in learning about this Butler squad, even if you are a Hoya fan who wants to learn more about this team, I would love if you checked this out!
I’m gonna shamelessly promote this multiple times through conference play, so get used to it
Alright, back to the Hoyas.
Georgetown: What Do We Know?
I think the first thing you have to mention in this breakdown is the status of Jayden Epps. He’s currently leading the Big East in PPG and for good reason. His offensive skillset is so, so impressive and he’s been a vital piece to this Hoyas team. Keep in mind that he’s leading the entire Big East in PPG, despite getting hurt in the Merrimack game and missing part of the first half and the entire second half. Here’s a piece I wrote about his skillset over the Summer where I spoke so highly of his skillset, and might’ve even undersold his impact.
He’s so good, but unfortunately has been out with an illness in Georgetown’s last two games against both Coppin State and Notre Dame. I’m not expecting him to play, personally. There are multiple people "in the know" who don’t expect him to play, and I don’t know if Georgetown traveled back to DC after their game in South Bend, Ind. so even if he was ready to play, I don’t know if they fly him up to Indianapolis unless he’s 100%. I’m not expecting him to play, and will be writing this article assuming such.
Dontrez Styles has been a pleasant surprise for this Hoyas team. He’s an athletic, big, physical wing with a really smooth jump shot. Styles has thrived for Coach Cooley since he transferred over from UNC, averaging 15.2PPG and 6.4 rebounds a game, shooting 44.7% from the floor and 40% from three. The Hoyas will need a lot from Styles in this game, who has struggled a bit in games without Epps.
In Georgetown wins, Styles averages: 17.1 PPG, 1.6 APG, 7.1 REB, shooting 48% from the field (6/12.6 per game) and 39.4% from three (1.9/4.7 per game)
In Georgetown losses, Styles averages: 11.8PPG, 0APG (yes, he has not recorded a single assist in a Hoya loss), 5REB, shooting 37.1% from the field (3.25/8.75 per game) and 41.2% from three (1.75/4.25 per game)
Styles is all-around significantly less effective in Hoya losses. And his worst performance in a Hoya win? Their ugly, ugly aforementioned game against Merrimack which Georgetown could certainly have lost when Epps got hurt. The Hoyas need more out of Styles, especially with Epps out, they need him to step up and be the guy in these games. It'll likely be on Jahmyl Telfort to put the 6'6" G/F in check.
Some other important contributors to this Hoyas team are three veterans: sharpshooting wing Ish Massoud, big man Supreme Cook and Guard Jay Heath. Massoud played in his fifth game of the season on Saturday, missing the first six games due to a hand injury. Massoud is averaging 10.8PPG, shooting 37.1% from three. He’s a laser from deep, as we saw when he lit up Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament, however, Massoud has only made four two-point field goals this season (4/24) to thirteen threes (13/35).
Jay Heath is a fifth-year senior who has averaged double figures in every season of CBB he’s played, in the Pac-12, ACC and Big East. He knows how to score, shooting 41.4% from the field and 37.9% from three for his career. Lastly, Supreme Cook (awesome name) transfers in from Fairfield and has averaged 10.7PPG and 8.7REB for this Hoyas team, and has picked up his play as of late.
Lastly, I want to give a shoutout to Georgetown’s two surging freshmen, Rowan Brumbaugh and Drew Fielder. Starting with Brumbaugh, he is coming off of earning the Big East’s Freshman of the Week Honor. Brumbaugh has shown significant progress, particularly with the Epps injury, averaging 14.5PPG, 5.5RPG, 3.5APG and 2.5 steals per game in this stretch, effectively running the Hoyas offense, and hitting a really clutch bucket which sent the Notre Dame game to overtime.
Another freshman who’s coming off of his best game in a Hoya uniform is Drew Fielder, the 6’10” F from Boise, Idaho. Fielder led the Hoyas with 16 points in 23 minutes off the bench and shot 4/5 from three-point range.
Ok, Enough Glazing, what ACTUALLY do we need to know about Georgetown
Georgetown plays 0 defense. They're really bad on that end. They struggle to stop dribble drives, don’t rotate particularly well and don’t have any rim protection. KenPom has Georgetown as the 281st-ranked defense, which centers around the amount of easy looks around the rim they give up. In the Hoyas four losses, their opponents shot over 50% from inside the arc in every game, with all but Rutgers exceeding the 55% threshold. TCU even shot 60% from inside the arc. You can get to the rim with relative ease, and I think that’s something Butler does almost at will.
I don’t want to be too harsh, but there are some… not great individual defenders on this Hoya team. Cook is alright inside, Massoud has been fine on the wing, and Jay Heath has been someone defenses have gone after a lot. Wayne Bristol is the Hoya's best on-ball defender and he comes off the bench, but I'd expect him to play decent minutes on Pierre Brooks or Jahmyl Telfort. Nobody on this Hoyas team is someone I’d consider a great defender yet, as evidenced by their KenPom ranking of 281. This team is still not there defensively.
Also, the Hoyas don’t rebound well defensively. Georgetown lost the Holy Cross game because they couldn’t rebound. They’re 241st in defensive rebounding rate, which is tenth in the Big East, only to DePaul.
Georgetown also turns the ball over a lot. Like a lot. They rank 282nd in the country in turnovers per game, averaging nearly 14 turnovers per contest. Against a Butler defense with pressure, particularly with Posh Alexander up against a freshman PG, I think that could rear its ugly head.
To end this with my thoughts on Georgetown before I break down this game, the Hoyas are getting better. There’s still a lot of room to grow, but this team is progressing. Their last few games have shown it, but there’s still a lot of room for growth.
Keys to the Game
Not only does Georgetown turn the ball over often, but a lot of the turnovers Georgetown gives up are live-ball turnovers, or steals for the opponent (Hoyas rank 324th in steal rate allowed) which turn into easy transition buckets. I think Butler takes full advantage of this and converts some easy buckets in transition. Butler’s transition offense has been excellent this season, and I think that continues against the Hoyas.
The Hoyas are a great three-point shooting team. They usually have four guys on the floor who are super consistent threats from deep, sometimes five if they have Fielder or Massoud at the five. This team shoots 37.1% from three on the season, which ranks 51st in the country. In turn, Butler allowed Cal and Texas Tech to combine to make 27 threes, on just 60 attempts. By the numbers, Georgetown is the second-best three-point shooting team that Butler has faced this season, only behind Florida Atlantic. Butler will have to be much better against Georgetown shooters, otherwise they risk getting into yet another shootout.
Neither team is a great rebounding team, both are fairly average (for total rebounding rate, Georgetown ranks ahead of Butler, but far behind them in defensive rebounding rate… somehow, Georgetown is 81st in total rebounding rate, but 240th in defensive rebounding rate), so the battle on the glass will be huge in this game. Expect the Hoyas to look to try to get as many second chances as they can.
Lastly, Georgetown ranks inside the top 70 in percent of points from the free-throw line. So they get to the line for a ton of their points. Butler, on the other hand, does not foul. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the country in fewest fouls, only averaging 13.1 fouls per game. Very impressive stat for Thad Matta’s defense, which was great at defending without fouling last season, too.
Prediction
I think Butler’s offense gets to the rim at will. At will. I think they force turnovers and take Georgetown out of a rhythm. I think Georgetown’s offense will hit shots and keep them in this one for a while, but the Bulldogs eventually pull away late.
I think Butler being the more experienced, healthier and sound team plays a huge role in this contest, and the Bulldogs leave Hinkle Fieldhouse victorious, despite Georgetown having real success there over the past few years. Georgetown’s offense has gone through long stretches of consistent live ball turnovers, and I think that really burns them in this game.
Final Score
Butler 88, Georgetown 80
And yes, I picked a Butler win and Georgetown cover