College Football Playoff Previews 2025: The First Round
- Om Brown
- 11 minutes ago
- 6 min read
After a wild conference championship weekend, the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff is officially set. For the next month, I'll be here to preview and recap each round of the CFP. After a fantastic slate of games just a season ago, I am pumped for this year's chase to the National Championship.
In this piece, I will preview each CFP First Round game and give my prediction, my X-Factors, as well as my opinion on the playoff field itself. Unfortunately for Those who thought that controversies over the CFP field would end with expansion, this year's pot was stirred in a multitude of ways. Without further ado, let’s jump into the First Round!
College Football Playoff Rankings:
Final CFP Top 25 noted in parentheses next to seed.
1. (1) Indiana Hoosiers (13-0, Big Ten Champs)
2. (2) Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, Big Ten At-Large)
3. (3) Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, SEC Champs)
4. (4) Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1, Big 12 Champs)
5. (5) Oregon Ducks (11-1, Big Ten At-Large)
6. (6) Ole Miss Rebels (11-1, SEC At-Large)
7. (7) Texas A&M Aggies (11-1, SEC At-Large)
8. (8) Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, SEC At-Large)
9. (9) Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3, SEC At-Large)
10. (10) Miami Hurricanes (10-2, ACC At-Large)
11. (20) Tulane Green Wave (11-2, American Champs)
12. (24) James Madison Dukes (12-1, Sun Belt Champs)
I think this ranking is about as good as it can be, especially considering the gripes that some teams have and the unfortunate changes to the playoff that this year's controversies with incite.
While it's cool that a pair of Group-of-5 teams made the Playoff, I don’t think JMU has any business traveling to Eugene. Give me the Ducks in a dominant performance.
Score Prediction: Oregon - 35, JMU - 14
X-Factor for the Game: Oregon QB Dante Moore
The former 5-star gunslinger struggled in their one loss to Indiana. He has picked it up as of late, with 5 passing TDs to just 1 INT in the last 3 games to go with a score on the ground. Moore needs to play clean football early in this matchup.
Alabama suffered a crushing loss in the SEC Championship game to Georgia, and now they get to travel to Norman to face an Oklahoma team that handed them their first home loss under Kalen DeBoer. The Sooners have a stingy defense that's created havoc all season, but their offense has sputtered at times. It is extremely hard to beat the same team twice in a season in college football, and I think that the OU offense just can’t get it done in an ugly fistfight of a game. Alabama becomes the first away team in the 12-team era to get a First Round win.
Score Prediction: Alabama - 20, Oklahoma - 16
X-Factor for the Game: Oklahoma QB John Mateer
Mateer looked like a Heisman frontrunner early in the season before breaking his throwing hand in late September. Since then, he has 6 TD passes to 7 picks, including a pair of 3 INT games. If OU wants to win, Mateer will have to sling the rock much better.
Ole Miss will welcome Tulane to Oxford for the second time this year, and a lot has happened since the Rebs last played a game. Their coach, Lane Kiffin, just up and left for their hated rival LSU and DC Pete Golding was promoted to head coach. Despite the drama, the Rebels have had their best season in program history with just one loss. To put the icing on the cake, QB Trinidad Chambliss was the backup to start the season. I think Ole Miss will continue their dream run by taking down the Green Wave again.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss - 24, Tulane - 13
X-Factor for the Game: Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff
The former BYU QB was 5/17 for 56 yards through the air in Tulane’s 45-10 loss to the Rebels in September. If they want a chance in this game, he absolutely has to play better.
Miami edged out Notre Dame, Texas, and Vanderbilt to take the final at-large bid. Despite not playing in the ACC Championship, they are a very good football team. A&M, on the other hand, was 11-0 going into rivalry week before getting beat by Texas, kicking them out of the SEC Title Game. In an alternate universe, both squads could be getting byes this week, but instead they will meet at Kyle Field. Miami QB Carson Beck will have to out-duel the exciting Aggies QB Marcel Reed. As critical as I have been with Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal, I have even less faith in TAMU’s Mike Elko. Give me the Canes in a nail-biter.
Score Prediction: Miami - 27, Texas A&M - 24
X-Factor for the Game: Miami QB Carson Beck
The former Georgia Bulldog has dealt with turnover issues since last season. In Miami’s 2 losses, he has a horrible ratio of 2 TDs to 6 INTs. In his last 4 contests that mark is 11 scores to 1 pick. Which Beck will show up? Miami needs it to be the locked in version.
Arguments For/Against Notre Dame, Miami and Texas:
This is where we get to the hectic part of the rankings. Notre Dame, Texas, and to an extent Vanderbilt, all can make cases to be in the Playoff over Miami, while the Canes do still have a legitimate argument to stay in. These are my honest thoughts.
Notre Dame: The Irish believe they should be the last team in since they are riding a 10-game win streak. However, I think it is very clear that they don’t deserve to be in. Both of their losses were to Miami and Texas A&M. Both teams that made the Playoff. Head-to-head games need to matter more than who a team lost to.
Miami: Despite having their pair of losses be to unranked teams, the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame. That is all that should matter. They have the same record of 10-2, but Miami won head-to-head.
Texas: This is where it gets dicey. The Longhorns are 9-3, but were the first team since 2019 LSU (maybe the best college team ever) to beat three Top-10 teams in the same season. Texas beat, at the time, #6 Oklahoma, #9 Vanderbilt, and #3 Texas A&M. Texas scheduled the reigning champions, Ohio State, in Columbus for Week 1, and lost 14-7. Yes, their ugly 29-21 loss at unranked Florida is the reason why the Horns are excluded, but this causes a problem that I will detail next.
The Overarching Issue:
The issue I have with Texas being out is that it will make out-of-conference games useless. If Texas scheduled Rice or Charlotte or an FCS team and blew them out, making them 10-2, they would be in over Oklahoma. It is easy to say “just beat Florida,” but Alabama lost to Florida State this year, while Miami has a pair of unranked losses. A season ago, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois and Ohio State fell vs. Michigan. Both of those teams made the National Championship game. Bad losses happen to good teams. Leaving Texas out of the CFP incentivizes teams to schedule a trio of cupcake games like Georgia did with Marshall, Austin Peay, and Charlotte. This will likely set a precedent that quality wins vs. good teams are the same as a win vs. an easy team. It would be unfortunate to see teams stop scheduling tough out-of-conference games, as those early season games are some of the best and most hyped matchups throughout the offseason.
Final Thoughts:
The current format does have a lot of flaws, but the 12-team Playoff is better than the 4-team one, and is definitely better than the old BCS system. No matter what happens, I am excited for this College Football Playoff! Check in at the House Enterprise blog after this weekend for updates on the quarterfinals!
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