A better week last week for sure. A couple of very good reads in there mixed with a couple plain bad picks. Still, a winning week and nothing to complain about! We take those. Let’s make this one even better!
I don’t love this card I won’t lie. So naturally, I played way more than I should have. The card itself kinda sucks, and from a betting perspective, there are a lot of untrustworthy guys. Violence should be on the cards, but it’s a pretty rough fight night card. But we gotta hit some winners, so let’s do this.
Is my first play on the card an untrustworthy young featherweight moving up to lightweight? Yep. But I think this matchup sets up pretty well for Hooper. He looks like he’s filled out to his lightweight frame, and Fiore, his opponent, is a good matchup. Fiore hasn’t fought anyone great before the UFC, including matching up with MMA legend Jay Ellis twice.
Also, Chase has struggled on the feet, his striking defense is just not there yet. But, Fiore is a grappler. This sets up as a grappler vs grappler matchup, and Hooper has some very solid BJJ. I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I’m backing Hooper in this spot.
I got this one early in the week, I think this is a fairly 50/50 fight, and I got him at +125. I’d line this around -120/-125 Urbina, +100 Cosce. Urbina is much better on the feet and has much better cardio. Cosce is the better wrestler, but also missed weight and looked ROUGH on the scale. More confidence in Urbina here, but there are worries about the long layoff and how good he is. Also, will he decide to wrestle in the clinch with Cosce? Who knows, but give me Urbina here.
Please just hit one of these last two and I’m happy. Both and I’m very happy.
Slava is a dynamite striker. People are forgetting that because he’s been out-wrestled in his last two fights. He’s fought some excellent guys too, Mike Davis is probably a top-20 talent in this division and Marc D1akese was on a damn good run. This matchup with the legend of Maheshate is a banger. But, it’s going to be largely on the feet. Slava’s striking is excellent. He’s an incredibly high-level striker with very solid cardio.
Maheshate probably won’t shoot for many takedowns, if any. In a 15-minute kickboxing battle, I’m taking Slava. And I don’t think it goes 15 minutes. He’s also nicknamed “Slava Claus” so you know he’s awesome. He does this cool dance after he wins too, so you know we have to back him here. Slava Claus big.
Natalia Silva ITD
There are levels to this MMA game. Natalia Silva is a legit fighter. High-level striking, excellent BJJ and she’s physically strong. Leonardo is a good fighter. She’s physically strong for this division and made it to this level for a reason. She’s not on Natalia Silva’s level. Silva’s better everywhere.
At 26, Silva is only getting better. This is a mismatch. And, Leonardo has had trouble in her entire career defending the head kick. How did Natalia Silva win her last fight? Head kick. Well, it was a spinning back kick to the body that was timed when her opponent was level-changing, but besides the point. I’m taking the -900 favorite down to -150. Silva via however she wants.
Ticking Time Bomb Parlays
Overs/Unders, all of them. Mini breakdowns coming:
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
This fight is likely arm bar from guard or FGTD. Vanessa is tough as they come, and KK isn’t a finisher. As long as KK doesn’t get arm barred from guard, I don’t see a finish coming. Thinking a lot of striking and moving from KK en route to a decision win.
Lupita Godinez vs Emily Ducote
I never know what Lupita’s game plans are going to be. But, she’s 41 days from her last fight and won’t have a full training camp. Ducote will. Ducote is more than ok striking from the outside, and both have decent wrestling pedigrees. Should be a striking battle, and I don’t see a finish. I think Ducote can stuff Godinez’s takedowns and fight more technically on the feet, she loves that low calf kick. Should do enough to take this fight. I actually like her enough in this spot to take a dog shot, Godinez has questionable game plans and I’m fading these fighters who keep taking short-notice fights.
(that was parlay one)
Joaquin Buckley vs Andre Fialho
Buckley is moving down from 185 and has dynamite striking, including the coolest KO I’ve ever seen.
Buckley carries some mean power, and has been KO’d multiple times. Fialho carries legit KO power, and has been KO’d multiple times at 170. Worried we could see a more technical battle here and both get tentative, but even then I think Buckley pieces up Fialho. Should be an absolute banger. This ain’t going all 15, someone is getting a KO and I think it’s Buckley.
Adding Winners for lols: (Buckley KO, KK dec, Ducote dec). Adding Slava Claus KO and Silva ITD for more lols, would be very fun if it hit.
Urbina +125 2U to win 2.5U
Hooper +120 2U to win 2.4U
Hooper by submission: .25U to win .825U
Under 2.5 Silva/Leonardo 1.35U to win 1U
Natalia Silva ITD: 1.5U to win 1U
SGPx (just use these boosts if you have them, they’re +EV and MMA is the best sport to SGP imo): Slava KO+Buckley (1.25U to win 3.85U)
Slava Claus -165: 2.475U to win 1.5U
Ticking Time Bomb #1 (Ducote/Godinez, KK/VD both go to decision): 2.32U to win 2U
Ticking Time Bomb #2 (Add Fialho/Buckley FDGTD): 2U to win 3.2U
Degen Winners Time Bomb: .25U to win 3.32U (Buckley KO, KK B-D, Ducote B-D)
Even more degen: .25U to win 13.435U (Added Slava KO and Silva ITD to "Degen Winners Time Bomb")
Ducote: .625U to win .75U
Ducote B-D: .375U to win .9U
Is this smart? No. Should you ever directly tail any of my picks? Absolutely Not. We're here to have fun, I'm not a sharp. But I’ve got nothing better to do and it’s been long week, so let's watch some fights and make some coin. Plus, I’m fairly confident in a decent amount of these fights, for whatever reason. Might even live bet Fluffy Hernandez if that fight gets out of R1 or Dern by submission if I’m feeling frisky. I’m not all that confident she wins, but if she does it’s not by decision. I’m human, sue me.
Shit like this is why I give myself more than 100U in my bankroll. I’m human and I make stupid decisions, have to factor that into balancing my bankroll. If you are like me, I’d highly recommend doing the same. Have enough to take seriously, then have some “fuck it” money left over.
I'm sorry I doubted Ian Garry, it won't happen again. Also, Battle/Green FGTD was maybe the worst read in the history of reads. Not even close.