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Overreaction Tuesday - Look Out, Mahomes has a Defense

From House Enterprise, and inspired by Rich Eisen, I’m introducing “Overreaction Tuesday.” Every Tuesday throughout the NFL season, I will overreact to what I deem the biggest storyline to come from the prior weekend’s games across the league, that includes Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.


In the NFL, the stories and narratives change every single week. The bottom line is that it’s a long season (five months from Week 1 to the Super Bowl to be exact) and we don’t know how it’s going to end. All we can do is overreact to the most recent data, so let’s do that.

 

Week 2 - September 14-18, 2023



Minnesota Vikings 28 (0-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles 34 (2-0)


Overreaction: The Philadelphia Eagles defense is a real problem. Just a week after failing to close the door on Mac Jones and the Patriots until the final drive, Philadelphia failed to capitalize on four Minnesota turnovers to take control of the game. The Eagles led by as many as 20, but the game ultimately came down to the last possession. Two weeks in a row Philly has led by 16 and 20, respectively, and ended up winning both games by one possession. The schedule gets a lot harder in a few weeks and we’ll get to see just how real this team is.

 

Kansas City Chiefs 17 (1-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 9 (1-1)


Overreaction: If the champs figure it out on offense, look out. The Chiefs turned it over three times on Sunday and committed 12 penalties for 94 yards. The defense, however, surrendered just 9 points to a Jaguars offense, after scoring 31 points in Week 1. Through two games, the Chiefs have given up the 3rd fewest points in the NFL, while boasting the 3rd best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns just 33% of the time. On offense, if Patrick Mahomes continues to find rhythm with his new group of receivers and the run game picks up with Isiah Pacheco, this could become the league’s most dangerous team.

 

Green Bay Packers 24 (1-1) @ Atlanta Falcons 25 (2-0)


Overreaction: This is not the ‘same old Falcons.’ Last year, and in many years past, it feels like Atlanta has been on the wrong end of improbable comebacks…cough cough 28-3. But today it was Desmond Ridder leading his team back from 12 down in the fourth quarter to beat Green Bay and improve to 2-0. During the comeback, the Falcons defense forced back-to-back three and outs by Jordan Love’s offense and then stopped the Packers again without allowing a first down to end the game. Who would’ve thought the NFC South would have multiple undefeated teams after two weeks?

 

Las Vegas Raiders 10 (1-1) @ Buffalo Bills 38 (1-1)

Overreaction: The Buffalo Bills have an A-1 defense that could propel them to another AFC East title. Last week, Buffalo gave up 22 in a loss to the Jets, but was put in bad situations over and over due to four Josh Allen turnovers. This week, it was a clean game offensively for Buffalo and the defense only gave up 10 points, forcing 3 turnovers of their own along the way. The Bills schedule is hard, especially over the final month of the season, so it may be a while before we get a better idea of how legit the defense is.

 

Baltimore Ravens 27 (2-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals 24 (0-2)

Overreaction: The Bengals are in trouble. For the second straight year, Cincinnati is 0-2 to start the season. The difference between last year and this year's start? Joe Burrow’s health. The quarterback is nursing a calf injury that held him out of most of training camp and the results are showing. Through two weeks, he has 304 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception and is completing 57% of his passes. Through two weeks last season, also an 0-2 start, Burrow had 537 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and completed 64% of his passes. The Bengals recovered well last season after the poor start, and they’ll have the opportunity to do so again, with their next three games being against the Rams, Titans, and Cardinals. If they fail to win at least two of those three, we’ll be talking about Burrow’s Bengals potentially missing the postseason for the first time since his rookie year.

 

Seattle Seahawks 37 (1-1) @ Detroit Lions 31 (1-1) OT


Overreaction: Week 1 is a liar and it always will be. Just one week ago, the Lions went into Kansas City on opening night and took out the defending Super Bowl Champions. Meanwhile, Seattle hosted the Rams and failed to produce any points in the second half and less than 20 yards of offense over the final two quarters while losing 30-13. Naturally, Detroit should fare well in its home opener in a season where the hype is as real as it’s ever been, right? Wrong. Seattle put up 393 yards of offense on Sunday, including 328 yards passing and 2 touchdowns from Geno Smith. In overtime, the Seahawks won the toss, received the kick, marched down the field and scored to end the game. Like we say here on Overreaction Tuesday…it’s a week-to-week league.

 

Los Angeles Chargers 24 (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans 27 (1-1) OT


Overreaction: Brandon Staley is going to be the first head coach fired this year…he might not even last the season. The Chargers really should have made a change at head coach after squandering a 27-0 lead in the playoffs against Jacksonville last year. Sean Payton was available and wanted to work with Justin Herbert. Instead, the Chargers switched offensive coordinators and Payton ended up with a division rival in Denver (who is also 0-2). The new OC, Kellen Moore, came over from the Cowboys to try and rejuvenate the offense. In Week 1, his offense put up the fourth most points in the league, and lost. On Sunday, the Chargers jumped out to an 11-0 lead before being outscored 27-13 the rest of the way. The coaches are changing, but the same tendencies from past seasons continue to plague the Chargers. If they don’t start winning soon they’ll be calling for Staley’s head in Los Angeles.

 

Chicago Bears 17 (0-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 (0-0)


Overreaction: Bears fans look away. Chicago may have the bleakest outlook of any team in the NFL right now. At least in Arizona they’ll likely have two top five picks in the 2024 draft. At least in Houston they have a franchise QB in CJ Stroud, who by the way has more 300 passing yard games in his career than Bears QB Justin Fields (Stroud has one career 300+ yard passing game). The Bears were supposed to take control of the NFC North this year because Fields was supposed to take the next step forward as the franchise quarterback. Instead, he’s completing 55% of his passes and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns through two weeks, and has thrown a pick six in each of the first two games of 2023. Don’t worry, though! The Bears get to go to Arrowhead next.

 

Indianapolis Colts 31 (1-1) @ Houston Texans 20 (1-1)

Overreaction: The Texans are going to be battling the Cardinals for ‘worst team in the league.’ Houston statistically had a great day on offense. Rookie Quarterback CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie receiver Tank Dell caught his first career touchdown while third year receiver Nico Collins hauled in a score while racking up 146 yards. The problem is that most of the production didn’t start until Houston was trailing 31-10 in the 4th quarter. The Texans defense could not stop Colts Rookie QB Anthony Richardson until he left the game with a concussion and then could not stop his replacement, Gardner Minshew. The Texans offense is going to keep getting better and should be a part of some exciting games this season, but if you can’t slow down the Indy offense, who can you slow down?

 

San Francisco 49ers 30 (2-0) @ Los Angeles Rams 23 (1-1)


Overreaction: The Rams are going to make the playoffs. Yes, San Francisco looked terrific and they’re the team that walked away with the win, but Head Coach Sean McVay and the Rams are doing so much more with so much less. They have a 35-year-old quarterback in Matthew Stafford, an offensive line that was among the worst in football last year, and the three main contributors on offense through two weeks are all youngsters. Receivers Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua each had 119 receiving yards in the Week 1 win over Seattle, taking full advantage in the absence of All-Pro Receiver Cooper Kupp. Against San Francisco, they combined for 224 yards, against one of the best defenses in the league. Second-year Running Back Kyren Williams has rushed for exactly 52 yards in each of the first two weeks and has 3 touchdowns this year. On Sunday, he added 48 yards receiving on 6 catches and a score, only trailing Nacua and Atwell in receiving yards. Through two weeks, the Rams are easily the biggest surprise team in the NFL.

 

New York Giants 31 (1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals 28 (0-2)


Overreaction: The New York Giants path to 2023 regression is clear. Just one week after losing 40-0 at home on Sunday Night Football, Brian Daboll’s Giants fell behind 20-0 against the team many consider to be the NFL’s worst. Fortunately for him, his team responded in the second half. The Giants scored touchdowns on four straight possessions in the second half and added a field goal in the closing seconds to come back and defeat Arizona 31-28. It’s hard to come back by three possessions against anyone in the NFL. What’s even harder is the Giants schedule. They’re the only NFC East team that isn’t 2-0 and have the entire AFC East on its schedule too. The team that was the biggest playoff surprise in 2022 appears to be regressing to the mean in 2023.

 

New York Jets 10 (1-1) @ Dallas Cowboys 30 (2-0)


Overreaction: Make no mistake, the Dallas Cowboys have the best defense in the NFL. Through two weeks, the Cowboys are outscoring opponents 70-10 and the only touchdown they gave up was a big play 68 yard touchdown from Zach Wilson to Garrett Wilson who outraced the defense for the score. Micah Parsons is already the league leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and his team is tied for first in sacks with 10 through the first two games while leading the league in forced turnovers with 7. They face two more winnable games, @ Arizona and vs. New England, before a Sunday Night Football date on the road against San Francisco.

 

Washington Commanders 35 (2-0) @ Denver Broncos 33 (0-2)


Overreaction: The Washington Commanders have a real team and will crash the NFC East party and make the playoffs. In his first ever road start, Quarterback Sam Howell threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading his team to an 18 point comeback victory to defeat Denver on the road. Howell completed passes to 10 different receivers and cleaned up the turnovers that plagued him in Week 1. On the ground, second-year RB Brian Robinson is coming into his own, rushing for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries in the win. The Washington defense is tied with Dallas for the most sacks on the year with 10, including 7 on Russell Wilson on Sunday. The Commanders get a great test on Sunday to prove their legitimacy at home against Buffalo.

 

Miami Dolphins 24 (2-0) @ New England Patriots 17 (0-2)


Overreaction: Is there a chance that Bill Belichick is on the hot seat? For the first time since 2001, Bill Belichick’s Patriots are 0-2. Last season, the legendary head coach brought in two coaches with zero offensive play calling experience to manage the offense. The Patriots went 8-9 and missed the playoffs. Now, New England has started 0-2 and back-to-back road trips on deck against the Jets and Cowboys. With the Dallas game looming, if the Pats lose to Zach Wilson’s Jets this weekend, Belichick is staring down the barrel of an 0-4 start.

 

New Orleans Saints 20 (2-0) @ Carolina Panthers 17 (0-2)


Overreaction: Sooner rather than later, the Saints will pivot from Derek Carr to Jameis Winston at QB. Through two games, Derek Carr has thrown for 533 yards, the 8th best mark in the league. However, he has thrown for just 1 touchdown and has thrown 2 interceptions while his completion percentage is the 3rd worst among starting quarterbacks. The Saints are passing a lot, and they should be. The receiver room features the likes of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, breakout Rashid Shaheed and will soon have Alvin Kamara return to the team. They’re built to throw and thus far the production has not been good enough, but just enough to be 2-0. Jameis has a history of being a gunslinger and could have a higher upside than Carr, which could be exactly what this team needs down the stretch if they’re in a playoff battle.

 

Cleveland Browns 22 (1-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26 (1-1)


Overreaction: The AFC North looked like it was going to have the most exciting division

title race. Instead, it’s going to be a Ravens runaway. The Bengals are 0-2 and Joe Burrow may have a significant lingering calf injury. The Cleveland Browns lost star RB Nick Chubb for the season against Pittsburgh, and the Steelers offense is struggling to produce from the run game, with the 2nd fewest rushing yards in the NFL through two weeks (96). Quarterback Kenny Pickett has the 7th most passing attempts in the league with the 15th most yards, but expect to see rookie RB Jaylen Warren continue to take carries from Najee Harris to try to alleviate some of the pressure on Pickett. Without Pittsburgh improving on offense, it’ll be all Ravens in the AFC North.

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