Red Sox Season Recap 2025 Pt. 1: Season in Review + Offseason Plans
- Om Brown
- 9 hours ago
- 16 min read
The Boston Red Sox 2025 season finished with a losing effort in the Wild Card Round, 2 games to 1 against the Yankees. A season filled with sky high expectations in February, struggles in May, an unprecedented trade in June, an underwhelming trade deadline in July, the arrival of a young star in August, and the collapse of the offense without him in September. The ending was about as ugly as it could have gotten, with the same problems from May rearing their ugly heads in October. However, the building blocks for success are there. This team needs a good offseason, and possibly some drastic changes at the top of their organization.
I will break down the ending of the year, give out team awards, point out key observations from the season, give my plans for an ideal offseason, and detail why I think the future may not look as bright as many people think, and it is not because of any player. Without further ado, let's begin!
The Ending:
The Red Sox matched up against their rival, the New York Yankees, in a best-of-3 Wild Card Series. Here's how it went down.
Game 1 - BOS 3, NYY 1
LHP Garrett Crochet was a beast, proving why the Sox needed a guy like him. He tossed 7.2 innings of 1-run, 11-strikeout ball on 117 pitches. OF Masataka Yoshida delivered with a pinch hit 2-RBI knock to give Boston the lead. Closer LHP Aroldis Chapman got out of a bases loaded no out jam in the 9th to hold the lead.
Game 2 - NYY 4, BOS 3
RHP Brayan Bello was pulled after just 2.1 innings of work, a decision that came back to bite manager Alex Cora. While the bullpen wriggled out of trouble, RHP Garrett Whitlock was forced to chuck 47 pitches between the 7th and the 8th, ultimately getting burned out after 1.2 innings and giving up the go-ahead run. One thing that didn’t help the Red Sox was OF Jarren Duran dropping a fly ball in the 5th, allowing New York to go up 3-2. While he was diving on the play, it was a ball that a Major League player has to grab. While SS Trevor Story did get that run back with a solo homer, the drop proved to be a key momentum shifter in the series.
Game 3 - NYY 4, BOS 0
Yankees rookie RHP Cam Schlittler threw 8 innings of 12 K shutout ball, suffocating a Sox lineup that, apart from Story and Yoshida, looked like they didn’t want to be there. Red Sox rookie LHP Connelly Early had some bad luck in the 4th, with the Yanks bats finding holes, getting bloop shots to fall, and a horrible error by 1B Nathaniel Lowe. It was a very sad way to go out.
Final Thoughts:
It sucks that Roman Anthony was hurt, but I refuse to use that excuse. The Red Sox offense (aside from Story, Masa, and 3B Alex Bregman in Games 1 and 2), just didn’t show up. Duran looked horrible, going 1-11 with 4 punchouts and no walks. OF Wilyer Abreu, who looked lost after returning from a calf strain in late September, went 0-5. INF Romy Gonzalez was 1-9. It was a pathetic showing from the bats, and it would have been really nice to have a certified Yankee killer (.270 AVG, 31 HR, 78 RBIs in 119 games vs. NYY) who hits .303 with 8 home runs and 26 knocked home in 26 career postseason games. Guess who that player is. The answer will be revealed later on in this piece. I can’t fault the pitching, they did all they could, especially Whitlock. It was just a bad matchup for Boston, and they couldn’t pull through. Tip your cap to the Yankees, they rallied and outplayed you.
Team Awards:
In this segment, I will go over my preseason award picks, followed by my end-of-season awards.
Preseason Predictions:
Team MVP: 3B Rafael Devers
Yikes. Nothing to say here…
Team Cy Young: LHP Garrett Crochet
Crochet was a beast all year long. Safe to say I got this prediction correct, although Chapman did give him a serious run for his money.
Player to Watch: SS Trevor Story
Story delivered big time this year, and aside from May, he was their best and most consistent offensive player.
Breakout Player: 1B Triston Casas
Casas went down in early May with a brutal knee injury. I hope that he gets another shot next spring.
Top Prospect to Watch: Either Anthony, Campbell or Mayer (I’m going with Anthony)
All three made their debuts this year. Campbell was sent back down, Mayer got hurt (again), and Anthony had a great year, hitting .292 with 8 homers and 32 RBIs, and had a .396 OBP in 71 games before getting hurt.
Biggest Storyline for 2025: How will Cora manage a far superior team than 2023-2024?
I think Cora did well this season, except for his bullpen management in October. To his credit, many players went down with injuries and he had to constantly fit people into the lineup. If I were to grade his season it would be a “B.”
Actual Awards:
Team MVP: SS Trevor Story (.263 AVG, 25 HR, 96 RBIs)
Story was finally healthy and he was great. All those marks above led the team. He also had 161 hits to lead the squad and went 31-32 on steals, also top of the team. It was the first time in franchise history that a player led the team in all 5 of those categories.
Team Cy Young: LHP Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA, 255 K)
In his second season as a full-time starter, The Pig led all of MLB in punchies, as well as innings pitched with 205.1. If Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal didn’t exist, Crochet would win the AL Cy Young in a landslide.
Breakout Player: OF Ceddanne Rafaela (.249 AVG, 16 HR, 63 RBIs)
Rafaela was one of the best defensive players in the league, finishing 4th in Outs Above Average with 21. Keep in mind, this was with him 24 games at 2B, when his natural position is CF. Compare this to Jackie Bradley Jr., a one-time Gold Glover (he should have more, but damn you, Kevin Kiermaier) whose best year for OAA was 2017 and 2018 with 13. It is safe to say the center in Fenway will be a no-fly-zone for a while with Ceddanne patrolling it.
Season Observations:
1. They were lucky to make the playoffs.
When looking at a basic offensive stat for the team, I truly believe that this season was not magical, it was just lucky. Yes, just one statistic tells you this. The team OBP leader was Duran at .332, good for is 71st in the Majors. Yes, Alex Bregman was at .360, but he did not qualify due to playing just 114 games. If he did, he would be tied for 20th in MLB. Post Devers-trade, Bregman’s OBP was .330. Their offense was saved by star rookie OF Roman Anthony. In 71 games prior to injury, his OBP was .396, primarily hitting leadoff. Without him the offense fell off of a cliff. To have Duran’s OBP lead the team and somehow make the postseason is impressive, but lucky. Of course, that didn’t stop them from finding success, but their lack of traffic on the basepaths did them in vs. New York.
2. A fully healthy Trevor Story was awesome.
Story played in 157 games, tying his career high from 2018. He was 10th in the AL with 96 RBIs and 6th in the AL with 31 bag swipes. He also took home his 5th Player-of-the-Week award in August. He was a steady presence in the lineup and it was great to see him play his first full season since 2021. In his age-32 season, Story had his 4th 20-20 campaign, as well as the first time he eclipsed 30 bags. He started off 31-31 for steals as well, setting a team record for most steals before getting thrown out, which was just once this year.
3. Ceddanne Rafaela has to be in center field every day.
I already mentioned Ceddanne’s defensive metrics, but let me give you one more reason why he should be Boston's everyday guy in center: his 21 OAA this year are the 6th best in the Statcast era for any outfielder. He isn’t a super-utility guy anymore; Rafaela is the best defensive CF in the American League.
4. Aroldis Chapman had the greatest relief pitching season in franchise history.
With all due respect to 2006 Jonathan Papelbon, 2013 Koji Uehara, and 2017 Craig Kimbrel, Chapman’s 2025 tops their seasons in my opinion. Compared to them, he is third in ERA (1.17, Koji had a 1.09 and Pap had a 0.92), and 3rd in WHIP (0.70, near Kimbrel’s 0.68, but not close to Koji’s 0.57). However, Chappy did this in his age-37 campaign, allowing just 8 earned runs and walking only 15 batters, both of which are career highs. The most impressive thing about his 2025 was that his walk rate was 7.1% when it typically hovered around 14% his whole career. He slashed that mark in half and carried the team’s bullpen ERA, which sat at 3rd in the Majors at 3.41 as a group. Oh, and he also didn’t allow a hit to 50 straight batters during a stretch from July 26th to September 7th. During that span, he K’ed 21 batters and walked just 4 hitters. It was a historic season from a pitcher who looked like he was on his way out of the Majors after 2022. Due to his last couple years and what the performance meant to the team, Chapman’s 2025 season is the greatest in team history in my opinion.
5. The outfield logjam absolutely has to be figured out this offseason.
The Red Sox currently have Duran, Anthony, Abreu, and Rafaela in their OF, all of which command every day at-bats for one reason or another. Yoshida does as well, but is only a DH. All of them are lefties except for Rafaela. Anthony has to play everyday since he is probably their best pure hitter at just 21 years old, while Rafaela’s superb defense should keep him in the lineup each game. This leaves 3 people for a pair of spots, and all of them are pretty much platoon bats because they can’t hit LHP. Abreu is a 2x Gold Glover and has the most pop, while Duran’s game is speed. Yoshida is a bat-to-ball hitter, and while he did play well down the stretch, I am not thrilled with the idea of keeping him next season. I will detail my plan on how to fix this over the offseason, but a full year of platooning 5 players (maybe even 6 if Rob Refsnyder is re-signed) for 3-4 spots severely hinders roster flexibility.
Impending Free Agents:
OF Rob Refsnyder
I would love to see Ref return, but with the current situation in the OF, I doubt they’ll keep him around unless he takes a pay cut.
Prediction: Leaves in FA
LHP Steven Matz (RP)
Matz was a solid addition to the bullpen at the deadline, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings for the club. However, I don’t see him being kept around since he was just a rental back in July.
Prediction: Leaves in FA
RHP Dustin May (SP)
May was acquired from the Dodgers for top prospect OF James Tibbs III, a player from the Devers trade. May had a couple of good games, but was relegated to the bullpen before landing on the IL with an elbow injury. He won’t be back in ‘26.
Prediction: Leaves in FA
LHP Justin Wilson (RP)
Wilson was quietly a key cog of the Boston bullpen, throwing 48.1 innings over 61 games with a 3.35 ERA. It would be really nice if the Sox bring him back to the pen for next season.
Prediction: Re-signs for 2-years, $5 million
Players with Opt-Outs:
3B Alex Bregman ($40 million)
Before his quad injury, it looked like Breggy would either opt-out and get a massive payday or resign with the Red Sox for a handsome price. I doubted he would turn down $40 million when his market value is around half of that, but Bregman has opted out.
Prediction: Re-signs with BOS (5-years, $150 million)
SS Trevor Story ($25 million)
Story has opted-in to $25 million over the next two seasons.
Result: Opts-In
Players with Options:
RHP Liam Hendricks (RP, Mutual Option - $12 million)
Hendricks came back from Tommy John this year, but struggled and spent most of the season on the IL. He will undergo another surgery this offseason, this one being on his ulnar nerve. The team will decline its option.
Result: BOS Declined
RHP Lucas Giolito (SP, Mutual Option - $19 million)
Giolito was great this season, acting as Boston's third starter all year long, and he was a good one too. In 26 games, he had a 3.41 ERA, but was left off the Wild Card roster due to an elbow injury. This, as well as the amount of depth that the team has, leads me to believe that Gio has thrown his last pitch in Boston, and will look for his 5th team in 3 years. I would love to have him back, but I doubt he will be.
Result: BOS Declined
OF Jarren Duran (Club Option - $8 million)
I love Jarren Duran the person. I applaud his openness on his struggles with his mental health, and am glad that he is now in a better place. I love the way he plays, the hustle he gives, and the effort he displays every night. However, he just doesn’t have a place on this team. He likely is who he is at this point, a speedy baserunner who can’t hit lefties and doesn’t walk enough to use his speed. Defensively, he put up 10 OAA en route to being a Gold Glove Finalist last year. In 2025, he put up a -3 OAA in LF, simply looking lost out there at times. While the Sox have picked up his option, he will have a new home by the end of 2026.
Result: BOS picked up his Option.
The Sonny Gray Trade:
The Sox made a deal with former GM Chaim Bloom (who really shouldn't get the heat that he gets for his time here, but that is for another blog) to kick off their offseason. Boston traded for Cardinals veteran RHP Sonny Gray in exchange for RHP Richard Fitts and the organization's 6th ranked prospect, LHP Brandon Clarke (High-A). St. Louis will cover $20 million of Gray's $41 million remaining on his contract. There is a $10 million mutual option for 2027. This essentially is a one year deal, similar to Giolito's.
Gray was 14-8 with a 4.28 ERA in 32 starts across 180.2 innings in 2025 for the Cards. The 3x All-Star also struck out 201 hitters, which was the 11th best in the MLB. Gray was the 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up as a member of the Twins, finishing behind Gerrit Cole. He will be a great veteran presence who will slot in in the back of the rotation. I love this deal.
My Ideal Offseason:
This is where I will dream. The team needs a very good offseason to stay competitive. They are top heavy with veteran stars, and they have a legit ace in Crochet, as well as a potential young superstar in Anthony. This is the winter to go big or go home. Going into 2022, they did virtually nothing until signing Story before the season. They failed to build off of their trip to the ALCS from 2021 due to their lack of aggressiveness. What I am cooking up here likely won’t happen, but it is a realistic approach going into the spring.
Key Team Needs:
- High Level SP2
- RHH Power Bat
- LHH Power Bat
My Offseason Red Sox Free Agents:
- Let all impending FA leave except for Wilson (re-sign for 2-years, $5-million).
- Bregman opts-out and leaves, Story opts-in.
- Both Hendricks and Giolito leave, Duran’s option gets picked up.
Key Free Agent Signings:
Sign DH Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) on a 3-year, $90 million deal.
Bring him back. Up until 2025, Schwaber’s half-season in 2021 with the Sox was his best. He clubbed 56 homers and drove in 132 this year and was a huge reason for the Phils' success. He would instantly slide into the void left by Devers.
Sign 3B Eugenio Suarez (Mariners) on a 2-year, $50 million deal.
Suarez is a bat-first, glove-second player, and that is completely fine. He hit 49 bombs to go with 118 RBIs this season. He would add the much-needed thump that Bregman failed to provide.
Trade for RHP (SP) Freddy Peralta (Brewers) who has 1-year $8 million left on his contract.
Peralta was the Brewers' ace this season, going 17-6 in 33 starts spanning 176.2 innings. He had a 2.76 ERA and struck out 204 en route to his second All-Star game and a 5th place finish in the NL Cy Young. He is likely to be available since he will be a free agent after 2026. It will take a lot to get him, but Peralta is well worth the haul.
Red Sox Aquire: RHP Freddy Peralta
Brewers Aquire: Prospects - OF Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS #3, MLB #85), INF Mikey Romero (BOS #7), RHP Luis Perales (BOS #9), and RHP Anthony Eyanson (BOS #12)
Must-Trades/Non-Tenders:
OF Jarren Duran
Duran would likely be in a package of higher level prospects to either get RHP Joe Ryan from the Twins or a top-end reliever from another squad. Either way, trading him allows the logjam in the OF to be solved, and would likely net the highest return out of him or Abreu. In 2024, Duran had a paltry .665 OBP vs. LHP, and that number dropped in '25 to .600. At this point, he is just a streaky platoon bat with below average defense in LF. Duran simply isn't a good enough hitter to warrant him playing in center over Rafaela. A change of scenery might be a good idea for the 29-year old.
DH Masataka Yoshida
It hurts me to say, but Masa has to go. He simply isn’t good enough to be paid $18 million to be a platoon DH. Boston will likely have to attach money to him or maybe even some prospects, but it's a deal that has to be done.
1B Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe was a solid enough band-aid for the team in 2025, but he won't stay on. The team has already designated him for assignment, and non-tendered. His lackluster defense in the Wild Card Series should tell you all you need to know. He is out of shape, struggles to move, and isn’t the same guy he used to be with the Rangers. There was a reason why the Nationals released him after the trade deadline.
RHP Jordan Hicks (RP):
Hicks has to be off of the team in 2026. He will get paid $12.5 million for the year. For all the talk about Devers having a bad contract, they added in Hicks' in the deal, which is far worse, since Hicks was terrible all of 2025. He posted an 8.20 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 21 games out of the pen for the Sox before he went down with a shoulder injury.
Now, let’s get into the fun stuff. Here is a lineup, bench, rotation, and bullpen based off of my dream offseason. In parentheses will be each player’s salary for the 2026 season, with a total for the end, and an updated payroll number as well. (Note: Some salary figures are rounded, I am not counting the whole 40-man roster, just my projected 26-man Opening Day squad).
Projected Lineup:
1. LF Roman Anthony ($2.6 million)
2. DH Kyle Schwarber ($30 million)
3. SS Trevor Story ($25 million)
4. 3B Eugenio Suarez ($25 million)
5. RF Wilyer Abreu ($820 thousand)
6. 1B Triston Casas ($1.5 million)
7. 2B Marcelo Mayer ($820 thousand)
8. C Carlos Narvaez ($820 thousand)
9. CF Ceddanne Rafaela ($2.3 million)
Bench:
1. INF/OF Kristian Campbell ($2.3 million)
2. INF Romy Gonzalez ($1.8 million)
3. C Conner Wong ($1.8 million)
4. 2B David Hamilton ($820 thousand)
I would be very happy with this as their lineup. Romy and Casas can platoon, as can Abreu and Campbell or Mayer and Campbell. Either way, this is a flexible lineup like last year, but it adds in some real power bats from Schwarber and Suarez. Anthony and his amazing eye would be a great leadoff hitter for a team like this.
Projected Rotation:
1. LHP Garrett Crochet ($24.8 million)
2. RHP Freddy Peralta ($8 million)
3. RHP Brayan Bello ($6.2 million)
4. RHP Sonny Gray ($21 million)
5. LHP Connelly Early ($820 thousand, BOS #6 Prospect)
Other Options: (Note: These extra options will not be counted in total salary)
6. LHP Kyle Harrison (Former top prospect with Giants, headline piece in the Rafael Devers trade)
7. RHP Hunter Dobbins (out till around midseason due to torn ACL)
8. RHP Kutter Crawford (will return in ‘26 from knee and wrist injuries)
10. LHP Patrick Sandoval (Missed 2025 with Tommy John surgery, possible non-tender candidate)
Possible Prospect Debuts:
1. RHP David Sandlin (BOS #10 Prospect)
The rotation with a trio of Crochet, Cease, and Bello would be electric. Gray is a solid innings-eater who's been known to strike batters out and stay healthy (knock on wood). The last rotation spots aren’t concrete, but the team has a plethora of options for the back end, which would help them bridge the gap, especially since Early hasn't had a full season worth of innings at any point in their careers. Crawford may also be an option either for the pen or the staff. The other pitchers who aren’t starters could see time out of the bullpen as well. I would be confident if the staff looked like that to start next season.
Bullpen:
Closer - LHP Aroldis Chapman ($13 million)
Set Up - RHP Garrett Whitlock ($7.5 million)
Set Up - RHP Justin Slaten ($820 thousand)
MRP - LHP Justin Wilson ($2.5 million)
MRP - RHP Greg Weissert ($820 thousand)
MRP - RHP Kutter Crawford ($2.8 million)
MRP - RHP Zack Kelly ($820 thousand)
MRP - LHP Kyle Harrison ($820 thousand)
I wouldn’t expect the bullpen to have too much turnover going into next season, but I am also not that concerned about it the way they pitched in 2025. However, bullpen success can be very volatile season-to-season and can end up being a hard unit to predict. There is also a good chance that the bullpen could see some changes in its mid-tier, especially after the trades of lefties Chris Murphy and Brennan Bernardino.
Total 26-Man Payroll for 2026: $185.5 million (note: payroll and the luxury tax are NOT the same)
My total payroll is less than 2025’s approximately $201 million, but last season’s includes dead money from roster moves, injured players, and other things like that. The base threshold for the luxury tax for ‘25 was $241 million, and the Sox came in at just over $247 million in tax payroll. While I won't to get into the nitty-gritty details of my projected team’s tax, as that would take a mind-numbing amount of time to construct, Boston will likely be around the same mark for 2026. A disadvantage for roster construction is the fact that Anthony and Crochet’s AAV both take massive jumps due to their extensions kicking in, which will eat up a bigger chunk of the luxury tax and could be a bigger issue than most people think. The tax threshold will go up to $244 million in 2026, and there is no reason why the Red Sox should be trying to get barely under the table.
Part 2:
Make sure to check out Part 2 of my season recap. In the sequel I will detail my concerns about the front office, and why the future may not be as bright as some fans think.