It's safe to say that the Colts exceeded expectations in 2023, going 7-6 after their franchise QB went down in his first season. After adding depth to the offensive and defensive fronts, and giving Anthony Richardson more receiving options, this team looks primed to battle for the top spot in the AFC South.
Can this team finally get over the hump?
Let's see how my 15th-ranked overall team will fare in 2024.
Photo: Jenna Watson/USA TODAY
Strengths
Offensive Line
Deep Defensive Line
Wide Receiver Group
The Colts OL was on fire last season, finishing 3rd as an overall unit for all of 2023 per PFF. Four starters finished with a 70 overall blocking mark or higher, with Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith locking up 82+ grades as well. Will Fries is a solid starter as well, as he's improved every year. This spring, they drafted Matt Goncalves and Tanor Bortolini, the latter of whom being one of the most athletic offensive linemen on record (9.79 RAS).
Much like the OL, this DL is as deep as they come. They have about five edge defenders who they can rotate, and three interior defenders who get after opposing QBs. If Tyquan Lewis is willing to move inside on some snaps, and Adetomiwa Adebawore can improve his play, this unit may be four deep inside and outside, with one tweener who can play both - making this defensive front one of the most versatile in the league.
A few years back, this WR room was pretty laughable. Jump forward to 2024, and they could make a case for being one of the more dangerous units in the league. Michael Pittman JR is cemented as this teams' WR1, Josh Downs did damage out of the slot his rookie year, and Alec Pierce can make plays happen when a catchable ball is thrown his way. Add in rookies Adonai Mitchell and Anthony Gould to help stretch this offense, the Colts will have answers for most defenses.
Weaknesses
Below Average Secondary
Linebackers
Tight End Room
Kenny Moore II is one the best slot defenders in the league, but this unit is struggling outside of him. Nick Cross and Julian Blackmon have had up and down careers, and JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones struggled in their rookie seasons, allowing a combined 60% completion rate, 783 yards and 12.43 yards per catch, and 9 TDs while only adding 1 INT and 10 pass breakups. They didn't allow a ton of YAC (1.39 per reception), so I'll give credit where it's due. Rookies Jaylin Simpson and Micah Abraham look to challenge for playing time early in their careers.
Zaire Franklin and EJ Speed are average, but overrated players. They both struggled in coverage last year, posting just above a 56 mark in that category, and had a missed tackle rate of 12.3% and 15.7% respectively. Grant Stuard and Cameron McGrone have been special teamers who won't challenge for starting reps. Jaylon Carlies is an interesting name to keep an eye on heading into camp, as the former college safety makes the switch to LB.
On paper, this TE room stinks. The Colts trotted out four different TEs throughout the year, and they all combined for 883 yards and 6 TDs, with Kylen Granson doing the majority of the work. This would be a great number for just one tight end, but splitting this across four bodies makes for bad football. Jelani Woods was sidelined for all of 2023, and hopes to bring a spark to this lackluster core.
Key Additions
Laiatu Latu - Edge Defender
Adonai Mitchell - Wide Receiver
Jaylon Carlies - Linebacker
Despite a solid DL all-around, they lacked a true ass-kicker in pass rush. That was Latu's specialty in college, as he posted a 17.86% pressure rate throughout his career, with his highest mark at 20.39% his senior season. He also posted a 94.3 pass rush grade in that same year, the best in the entire country. He does lack some power and will get stonewalled at the next level, but he'll easily beat up on average tackles and apply 5+ pressures a game.
AD Mitchell was a polarizing player due to his "lack of effort" during his senior season. These concerns will be put to rest in the NFL, and his elite athleticism (9.99 RAS), along with his savviness for beating defenders with his routes, will make him a top target for the Colts in the next few years. He may not pop off right away, but this guy will be a threat in time.
The third rookie on this list is the former defensive back turned linebacker in Jaylon Carlies. He did a decent job as a DB in college, but there were concerns that he wouldn't be able to keep up with NFL receivers as a full time safety/slot defender. He fell to the Colts in the sixth round, and they smartly moved him to linebacker. He's added about 15 pounds since his final year at Missouri, giving him plenty of size and athleticism to be a solid coverage LB in today's NFL.
Dark Horse
Jelani Woods - Tight End
Plot twist! I know I dumped on the TE group earlier, but Jelani has never had a chance to reach his true potential until this season. He was buried on the depth chart as a rookie and still found his way onto the field, posting 312 yards and 3 TDs on just over 200 receiving snaps, with most of that coming in the last six games of the year. He was sidelined in 2023 due to multiple hamstring injuries, giving him more adversity to overcome. With the same competition that he beat out by the end of 2022, I expect a big breakout year from him in 2024.
Photo: Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire
Record
11-6
If Anthony Richardson can stay healthy for the vast majority of this season, and this secondary is better than expected, this team has a legit shot at the top seed in the AFC. With that being said, they have a tough schedule, as they face top 12 teams eight times in their slate of games. On the flip side, they'll take on bottom 8 teams five times, giving them extremes on both ends of their matchups. They have the firepower to win the majority of those thirteen games, and they'll pick up at least two wins in the other four contests.
Final Notes
We got a glimpse of what Anthony Richardson could do as a rookie, and he was better than advertised. He improved his footwork, which greatly improved his accuracy; he had a 71.1% adjusted completion rate through four games, up from his 64.5% mark throughout his collegiate career. Now, with a full offseason and healthy shoulder in tow, he should light up defenses in his sophomore campaign.
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