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Two weeks ago was an absolutely brilliant night. I mean that’s better than I’m ever going to do. I set the bar high, and will only underperform. I thought about retiring, but I mean I’d be betting on the fights anyway, I might as well share and have some fun on the internet.
It’s been two weeks and I haven’t been able to whine about judges' decisions, bad bounces or any of that stuff, and I need that back. So, we’re back and going to try to have a successful night at the office.
Recap
Last Week: 8-5, +15.7U
Total: +14.9U
Luan Lacerda
Lacerda is my favorite play on this card. I think he’s easily the best value. He was a very solid prospect on the regional scene, and possibly beat Cody Stamann on really short notice, a guy who I think is a legit Top 15 caliber guy in the best division in the entire sport. 11/16 media members scored that fight for Lacerda, and he’s now taking a real step back.
Da’Mon Blackshear is a decent fighter in his own right, but is 0-1-1 in the UFC. This matchup is a very tough one for him. Lacerda is a better striker in my mind and has a legit advantage on the ground. Lacerda is a very slick grappler, and actually took down Cody Stamann in his last fight, a very solid wrestler. Blackshear was outwrestled by Farid Basharat in his last fight, and I think if Lacerda gets one takedown, this fight could be a wrap.
Andrei Arlovski
Nobody loves a close decision quite like this resurgent version of “The Pitbull,” Andrei Arlovski. His opponent, Don’Tale Mayes, is someone whose fighting IQ I don’t trust at all. I think this will be a boring stand-up 15-minute fight, and I’m backing the Pitbull. Could get bit in the ass here, but that’s gambling. Pitbull B-D.
Daniel “Willycat” Santos
Willycat is an absolute warrior. He’s a very entertaining watch, as he’s someone that will pressure you from minute one, throw some wild strikes and is willing to take a shot to give one. I think his opponent Johnny Munoz has the grappling edge and could win this fight if he gets on top, but I think Willycat’s pressure will break him the longer this fight goes. Munoz by submission is very live, but the longer this fight goes, I favor Santos. Santos by KO.
Jim Miller
Career resurgent Jim Miller beating up a short-notice UFC debutant? If it happens once, it can happen again. If it happens twice, it can happen thrice. He’s done it twice, and is up against a natural featherweight. This fight just sets up for him.
Not to mention, the A-10 basketball conference had a very good week with DaRon Holmes returning to Dayton. Jim Miller’s nickname? A-10. Miller by sub.
Kai Kara-France
Amir Albazi is taking a significant step up in competition. We don’t know how good his five-round cardio is, and KKF has a legit striking advantage. KKF looked good against current world champion Brandon Moreno, before being finished by that perfect liver kick. In his fight before that he stuffed just about all of Askar Askarov’s takedowns en route to a decision win. He keeps this on the feet and he can take Albazi.
Albazi could be an absolute stud and I could get absolutely smoked here, but I’m trusting the vet KKF here.
Caceres/Pineda U2.5
Daniel Pineda is the definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter. Of his 45 fights, only five have gone the full 15 minutes. Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres has legit grappling pedigrees and has shown off some very slick striking recently. I think we get a finish here. Pineda likely earlier, Bruce Leeroy as the fight goes on.
Full Card:
Caceres/Pineda U2.5 2.7U to win 2U
Kai Kara France .52U to win .5U
Parlay: Willycat Santos+Jim Miller 1U to win 1.07U
Luan Lacerda 3U to win 2U
Luan Lacerda ITD 1U to win 2U
Santos KO 2U to win 2.4U
Arlovski B-D 1U to win 1.55U
Ticking Time Bomb Parlay (it worked so well last week, had to do it again):
Jim Miller, Over 2.5 Arlovski/Mayes, FDGTD Caceres/Pineda, Under 2.5 Santos/Munoz
1U to win 4.37U